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I like to check Ilika's Twitter feed occasionally - from yesterday "Installation of cleanroom & principal equipment now complete",
https://twitter.com/Ilikaplc/status/1433023543680319493?s=20
Interesting to read the linked article, but strange that there's no mention of the tax credits BT will be taking advantage of for that capex. Maybe that explains the price hit, if everyone's forgotten about those.
"For qualifying expenditures incurred from 1 April 2021 up to and including 31 March 2023, companies can claim in the period of investment: a super-deduction providing allowances of 130% on most new plant and machinery investments that ordinarily qualify for 18% main rate writing down allowances, a first year allowance of 50% on most new plant and machinery investments that ordinarily qualify for 6% special rate writing down allowances"
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-temporary-tax-reliefs-on-qualifying-capital-asset-investments-from-1-april-2021/new-temporary-tax-reliefs-on-qualifying-capital-asset-investments-from-1-april-2021
I'm not a believer in technical analysis, but I do think there are underlying reasons that support your optimism: Any IPO overhang from underwriters and anyone else making a quick buck by selling shares they bought below the price they can sell them at on the open market is now behind us, and Tremor does look to be making all the right moves - so yes I see no reason Tremor shouldn't head upwards now.
A poster on here pointed out a Moody's upgrade last year which made for interesting reading; I thought I'd see if anything had changed... and indeed it has,
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlook-on-Premier-Foods-ratings-to-positive-assigns--PR_446863?cid=7QFRKQSZE021
(if LSE mangles that link just google for "moodys premier foods" - the relevant article is dated 19th May 2021: "Moody's changes outlook on Premier Foods ratings to positive, assigns B1 to the new notes")
Feels a bit too 'comfortable' for this to go through at 254p (Fortress offer), I wonder if CD+R will come back with a counter-bid: Just because their initial bid was rejected doesn't mean that was their final offer and they may be encouraged by Apollo stepping aside.
Great, thanks @MikeM14. I've been in and out (mostly in) of MRW since pre- Morrisons buying Safeway so I'll have had most of those and more - I don't think my shares quite count as 'free' yet, but they've certainly paid well while I've had them. As for me, I'm holding out for a higher offer, I don't believe it'll go for the current low-ball bid when there are multiple bidders in play.
I'm looking forward to next week when the dust from the IPO will have finally settled: I think the price at the moment is still being held back by the additional shares taken up by the underwriters (@ $19) (see the most recent RNS re. over-allotment option). With Tremor currently at $20.50 there's a quick (small) profit to be had. There have been days recently though where there's been a rocket under the share price, so once that underwriters' overhang is cleared I do expect the share price to go well above it's current level, particularly once we get the interim results (late September).
@mattwsh2904: Remember to include dividends when you're considering what "break even" means for you (but also inflation). I'm guessing adjusting for those your £2.75 entry would be lower so you'll already have achieved "break even". Going from FY2013 onwards (mid-calendar-year 2013 onwards): 13 + 13.65 + 5 + 5.43 + 6.09 + 6.6 + 6.77 + 7.15 (I googled for "morrisons dividend history"). So that's a total of 63.69p; I think that might be ignoring special dividends so perhaps even higher.
Always worth considering any dividends received when weighing up one's profit or loss.
I expect it's more that "The board recommends" - it'll still need a shareholders' vote to approve the deal. The board wasn't recommending the original offer which is the difference with the new offer.
Me, I'm looking forward to a bidding war now, I don't think this current bid is the last one.
Doh, turns out to be my misunderstanding; Tosca have indeed reduced, the number of shares I was quoting was the number of Tremor shares issued, not those owned by Tosca. Correcting my figures (having re-read those RNSes),
RNS 9th June: 15.9% corresponding to 21,712,529 shares
RNS 29th June: 13.7% corresponding to 20,454,226 shares
Thought I'd call out a misunderstanding on this thread:
With the recent US listing there are now more TRMR shares overall, so the % figures given in "Holding(s) in Company" RNSes is confusing. The RNS of 29th June gives the impression that Tosca have reduced their position if you consider just the percentage holding, but considering the number of shares shows up something different. Looking at the previous Tremor/Tosca RNS of 9th June makes this clearer,
RNS 9th June: 15.9% corresponding to 136,190,262 shares
RNS 29th June: 13.7% corresponding to 149,728,168 shares
So Tosca has actually increased their holding!
Noticing today's RNS on Mithaq's holding, it looked initially like Mithaq's holding had decreased (23.26% gone down to 21.18%), but checking the previous Mithaq holding RNS (21st May) I see there that the shares held then was 31,500,000 which they've now increased to 31,707,585. So a net increase, the lower % will be due to the new shares issued for the US listing. We might see some other similar RNS announcements for other large Tremor shareholders with similar confusing lower % but the same number of actual shares held.
Looks like UK PLCs are on the shopping list for CDR: as well as their bid for Morrisons I see they've also just raised (slightly) their bid for UDG Healthcare (LSE symbol: UDG) - not by much, but it does suggest they're likely to stand by and perhaps increase their initial 230p offer for Morrisons even if there's no other bidders.
That said, I rather expect to see a couple of other bidders to emerge before the CDR "put up or shut up" date of 17th July, and likely much sooner than that.
Well I for one want to know all about your cat: How successful are it's investment recommendations, and is it registered with the FFCA(*) ? :-)
(*) Feline Financial Conduct Authority
I was keen to checkout your reference, looks like it's the Telegraph's business feed, esp. the entry at 8:15am, "...suggestions ... bidding war ... American private equity firms Lone Star and Apollo Global Management ... Amazon". So a slight note of caution that it's "suggestions" of other bidders only,
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/21/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-ftse-100-updates/
but nevertheless this is a share that I feel has been long undervalued and overlooked, I think because it's not got such a strong presence in the south of the UK. I particularly like how it likes to run in a prudent manner - i.e. with relatively low levels of debt and also having its own in-house supply for some of its products as other posters have mentioned.
It's a share I've held for years: The capital returns have always been disappointing, but it's been a steady dividend payer, so taking those together it's been a worthwhile share, and even if no bid materialises, I think the current 235p price is a reasonable entry price for this company. I've therefore added some more shares expecting to make a modest profit in the next few months while this buyout process plays out; if I'm wrong I'm left with a few more solid MRW shares that'll keep paying a dividend etc, and the stock market may have also woken up to the value hidden in the shares so it seems unlikely that they'll sink back to their recent 175p-180p range.
Large uncrossing trade this afternoon: 2.5m shares traded (£4.8m). 78m shares in issue (according to 'Fundamentals' on this site) so that's 3.2% of shares. Alongside Xaar's promotion to FTSE Small Cap taking effect next week this means there might be a "Holding in company" RNS to look out for too, I wonder who's buying those shares... (although as an uncrossing trade it might relate to multiple buyers & sellers so not necessarily notifiable changes)
ITV's AGM was on 29th April, so "AGM statement this morning" rings false. A quick search later shows the text quoted to belong to S4 Capital. Mischief or mistake I don't know, but this text doesn't belong to ITV.