Reality Check16 May 2025 19:44
I'm long term holder from Baron oil days, (not as old as Gold). I don't normally post but I am sick of the trader posts, lets not pretend this CLN deal was anything else apart from a dog, worse than Yeo's last rights issue to keep the lights on. We will give away over 50% of the company for the price of our share of the drill, with further spending required to get this to production even with positive drill results.
I am an investor and not a trader, I was invested in this as I was hoping for a 15 / 20% stake left in Chuditch with a free carry to production with a potential market cap at 300M about 1.2P with the right partner that is why I invested, this is a small part of my portfolio but a large part of my risky investment portion (greedy I suppose as it was to buy me a nice holiday villa with a pool, there was enough of a chance to get to that with the asset we hold).
We are now dealing with the door to door pay day lender of the financial world who will do anything to drive down the share price to get a better deal even though the one we have signed up to is very favourable for them (before any negativity I do think it was the only one on the table). That also raises the question why no one will lend, which makes me believe no one believes the island will do anything, or their terms are not favourable enough. We are prime location for a relative cheap pipeline to Darwin and the proceeds pay for a Sunrise pipeline to the island, one of my investment hopes, but indication is it has to go to the island, just cant find anyone to pay for it.
My recommendation would not be to buy into this even at these levels as for me the risk verses reward profile has changed, I will still continue to hold until the drill and make my decision then as to sell or hold further, I have held on for so long and you never know someone might pay for a pipeline to the island and its a different ballgame, but until this happens our new investors want this share price as close to .025p as they can get, no matter how they do it, the only thing stopping this is positive news from the island on major project level funding, so for me even trying to average down is too big a risk as we still have a big drop to get to the 0.025p level and the potential uplift is minimal before drill results or major news from the island.
I still believe in the asset just our share is massively reduced, so fingers crossed to all the long term holders like me who are still in the red, but if you are reading this and looking at investing do plenty of research (some excellent research and posters on this site I will let you make up your own mind who they are), but for me the risk profile has changed and the risk is too much for reward. (even though I am staying invested).
Remember everyone has an agenda and is in it for themselves, I just wanted to put my view into the mix. Hopefully balances the traders who are either positive or negative depending on their position.