RE: Is this really a big surprise2 Mar 2018 09:40
Not entirely unexpected, always better to have the government on side (I suspect, to some extent, they may be open to negotiations), but without the commitment to process everything in Czech that may be easier to setup operationally.
Make no mistake, the EU are keen to secure supply and the German auto industry will have dropped a few concerned e-mails to Merkel this morning.
In the grand scheme of things, we cannot take this as a positive step. But in practical terms there are plenty of solutions that would be equally appealing to both EMH and the Czechs.
From recollection, the Cinovec resource is about 10-12MT of contained lithium. Let's say it's 10MT just for headroom.
Split the mining area in half and let Babis setup Diamo in the other in a gentlemans agreement. Realistically, EMH could have a 100ktpa mine that can operate for 50 years (5MT), the Czechs have the same, Babis saves the world (cough), the EU secures a major source of key raw materials, most people are happy, nobody bothers with pricey lawyers, Babis doesn't wake up in a gulag.
I'm probably simplifying things, but that would result in 3 major mines (BCM, EMH, Diamo) in the area, which would look good from a healthy market/competition perspective.