Member Info for NoEasy

'But there are still a number of factors that could wreck progress - the elections, problems with finance, unknown unknowns...'

Truth is that every stock has its issues and if things weren't hard enough for us here we have to contend with evolution telling us to leg it at the sign of danger. It's getting over that evolutionary hurdle of peril winning the day in our heads when there needs to be a fine balance between sceptical scrutiny and understanding of the progress made. It is easier on the mind to be thrown off balance and comply with hereditary urges than it is to be finely balanced. I don't know of any scientist who has discovered that we have evolved to be finely balanced as a general characteristic. We have to work at it. Not easy and that is why all the research, views and email replies all add up to something.

Not understanding their primal urge when faced with risk coupled with not putting the hard work in to comprehend their stock pick is also a reason why I see people losing more money than they make rather than making more money than they lose.

SL I think Scotty gave an answer based on a number one all over, no nasal hair trimming and lego bricks at 10p each. I make it around £6.30 or if its the London double denim brigade haircut that's £86 not including products plus the bricks.

Personally I think that he is a bit over the top with both those estimates.

Good discussions and a pleasure to read civil but opposing views. It's just one of those periods where there is a race between time and (good?) news. Tends to raise the ante no matter which board you visit but, with the odd exception, we keep it on topic and not personal.

I still see progress far outweighing any other issue at this precise moment in time. The context is that we've been banging in real, hard steps here recently particularly given how long we languished with seemingly no progress.

I'm also glad Arthur gave us the end of year timeline for all approvals even if that wasn't met. He feels approvals are close.

Always a personal calculation as to precisely when the risk outweighs the opportunity, I'm still seeing opportunity though.

And confirmation it seems on who has the final say on all things oil related.

'........President Muhammad Buhari, who doubles as the Minister of Petroleum Resources...'

Cracking find Dunc.

'Expressing dissatisfaction over operators’ inability to develop their fields, Kachikwu said the federal government is currently working on modalities that would set a deadline for the development of all fields, particularly marginal fields.'

Nothing wrong with your view Indi. We all have one. Have a good weekend.

Thanks for that Indi. Was just going off to happy hour. Think I'll give it a miss now.

Fine points Dunc/Jiving/Rift.

But the one thing he doesn't mention is the depths of the drills. Initially we were looking at a rig drilling down to both the 6100' sands and the 7200' sands from the same position. There would have then two further horizontal drills both into the 6100' sands. Now we have what Jiving describes and it would be nice to know if they intend drilling the 7200' as part of the first phase given they estimate oil in place could be 2.6 billion barrels for that zone with the same again potentially for the 8000' sands.

Arthur it seems you read these boards so now that you have submitted the FDP and have previously outlined your initial field development plan it would be good to get an updated corporate presentation. The last one was 20 months ago and there have clearly been developments since then.

Great work Dunc.

Cheers for the reply Brady. I'm not saying this this for Art's benefit but I am starting to get a real picture that he has very little influence in how OPL 226 is managed. Damning in one respect but as things open up about Kola also understandable.

I have no concerns whatsoever about the project, its resources and its potential resources which are huge. Just the timing that has me concerned. Its also right that no one on this board knows for sure how this will pan out (so much so I have just checked there hasn't been an announcement before I post this).
All the best...NE.

Evening Brady, I've changed my view on when this will move forward and rightly so. I have chewed over that donation and its ramifications and I see it as a salient fact. Sub on the other hand, by his own words, sticks his finger in the air.

My worry throughout my posting has always been about the timing here, will it arrive before the election because if not we then move a whole lot closer to April and the need for a placing while we have a depressed SP.

Still time but rather than expecting it to happen now in everyones interests it no longer has that same expectancy for me. Important that we all do look at changing circumstances and not everyone will have the same outlook as me.

I looked at this a number of months ago Dunc and the process for sign off is unclear. Thick as mud.

What I can be clear about is that Kachikwu is Buhari's minister. In all seriousness I cannot envisage Kachikwu rolling in the heather under Buhari's regime with someone who has effectively just bankrolled the opposition.

Jay the country does need money but OPL226 isn't going to fill the coffers. I have been looking at it the other way around. I don't see the government having any incentive whatsoever to push through OPL 226 now four weeks before an election. Rather I thought that Kola would want to finalise this before said election to take away any uncertainty. In lieu of the donation I feel certain now that neither party has any incentive to finalise before the election.

In laymen terms Buhari isn't going to say let's hurry up and give Kola his ministerial approval now that he has given the opposition an absolutely huge donation for their campaign against me. Doesn't stack up whichever way we look at it.

That donation is a time killer.

Not so strange about the buys versus sells. Checking the prices over the course of the day indicates some of those buys were at prices quoted for sells so as is normal sells shown as buys and vice versa. No hidden agenda simply the market working as it does.

There is underlying buying here though and given where we are in view of the CEO's erroneous timescales that's been the curious thing for me.

Great day today. Liked the price action.

I think it would be fair to say Kola has delivered a kick in the face to Buhari and his campaign. Kola not only appears to be a supporter of Atiku he IS a supporter of Atiku. The critical and very public timing of the donation six weeks before the election is calculated. He has checked the wind direction. Kola wants to be seen to be at one with the 'new' president and with everything he has going on won't want any new regime looking the wrong way at his present arrangements and future plans. You can forget any previous donation Kola may have made to Buhari particularly after the timing of this but also the promise he made that more money is available to Atiku.

Kola better hope Atiku wins.

Somehow I get the feeling we have received another kick in the groin ourselves.

The Economist has a close race for the presidency but with Atiku ousting Buhari. That sort of outlook mirrors Kola's it seems. My take from here is that a spanner may have been thrown in the works in terms of the likelihood of Ministerial approval before the election due to Kola's recent $30m donation to the opposition.

If that is to be the case then for the purposes of my investment I will be hoping Atiku does succeed. He is unlikely to overlook the massive boost his campaign got from Kola.

Yes all good here Tidd thanks. Not dismissing the completion of the horizontals as positive news but I am really looking forward to the result of the RFP.

Spot on Jiving, some serious value involved in gas to generate power in Africa so much so that I spent quite a bit of time a couple of years ago looking out other opportunities available in that space. So when we took on the block in Mozambique with its gas potential it made me happy. Happy but with the proviso, as you and Dunc have pointed out, that we get out house in order here first. The first market response to agreeing a PSC with INP before we get the go ahead here could well be, 'great but where is the money coming from to service that PSC'. If we have our finance and approvals here that question becomes less of an issue.

Be nice to get two announcements in a row in the next week or so.