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I liked it too Pickwick, a lot.

Q2 looking transformational if the news stream arrives as TG expects.

Gas Flow Results
RFP Result
Downstream Einvironmental Approval
Financing

Also didn't get lost on me that Tony made plain that he saw an excellent timing opportunity with Eskom's significant difficulties both now and forecast over months and years.

Zippy my post related to the wider power demand not just the requirement for 100MW. That was in answer to the question regarding 'why not award a 100MW contract to each party'.

I still see the tender being split. Does it have to be? No it doesn't.

My view is based upon a number of factors. The first is the failed tender for both parties. Both are then invited to reapply. Both pass the compliance stage and technical stage on the new tender. The percentage achieved for both in the technical stage is negligible such that an appeal on that one aspect could be reasonably foreseen if denied a percentage of the contract. That is particularly so as that aspect is 'subjective' and therefore very much open to 'interpretation', both words used by Tony in describing the technical part of the application in his latest interview. The last part of the tender involves a known known for both parties, the costs the Government themselves put forward as the 'power price'.

Additionally the tender itself, while not making reference to the selection process used (see 9.4.1, 9.4.2, & 9.4.3 of the procurement process as posted by JTD) does stipulate that more than one bidder can be recommended for an award.
Unlikely that tender scores will be exactly the same so clearly the Government allow for close contests, which this must be unless Seskaname have significantly undercut or overdone the financials but again unlikely given the Government steer on pricing. I have both parties almost neck and neck.

All I want to see is a percentage of this tender awarded to us, enough to get us connected to the grid and to satisfy our financiers. We certainly don't need the full 100MW and I know I am not alone in recognising that.

'Is there anything stopping the Bots Government from issuing both parties with 100 MW? After all they are desperately short of power, so why would it be an issue?'

The government will be following their own procedure, only one tender is being worked through and under that tender only 100MW is up for grabs. So that rules out each party being awarded 100mw each. But that answer doesn't do your point justice DowntoEarth. The Bots Government need the power and it also recognises that that power demand will not be satisfied by one company. That is why I believe we will shortly see this 100MW tender being awarded to both TLOU and Seskaname. They will be looking beyond this tender and what they can do now to foster the future power generation for their country.

A pleasure to read that announcement on a Monday morning.

All it took yesterday was a nudge. Whatever/whoever triggered it matters little, not HarryMann nor the regurgitated article, the reaction was in the hands of investors no one else. That reaction spoke volumes as to where investors are mentally with this share at the moment.

The expected placing is weighing exceedingly heavily here but it seems we are still very much in the hands of the government regarding moving forward. It would be foolish to believe they have our timetable foremost in their minds. 'Africa time' isn't just a cliché its a reality and I don't think we have quite got that yet. I do also think that far from being removed from this Art is also having to live this reality.

I also understand the point that as long as Art gets his monthly money and enjoying the high life he isn't concerned by our SP demise but I disagree with that. I suspect like most CEO's he want's to be successful and is also money driven. He cannot put money into every previous placing then not give a fig about the downward spiral of the SP, dropping his investments like a stone despite his monthly wage. He cannot be both money driven and not money driven. The alternative is to accept he is not bothered about being successful and wants to just maintain the status quo. I don't see that either and the status quo option won't be around for too much longer without progress.

Lastly we have made some really important progress here with this project and that has been with slow but nevertheless crucial support of the government but also one the worlds largest commodity traders (Trafigura). The timeliness of progress has let investors down not the project itself. I have made adjustments to my investment here as I still see there is good opportunity of reward despite the high risk.

Yes Rift, the most blatant attempt at getting people to buy in while others offload me thinks. Backed up of course by the trades and SP movement.

Doesn't alter my view though that once any placing is out the way then it is all about the drilling and sentiment should reverse. It will be good for us all to get to that point.

Despite the 36m reported as buys by JA yesterday and today a 'big buy' being worked it seems the SP is responding by going the other way. Isn't that strange?

I got a quote to buy at 18.

Just to balance out the 'big buy' post.

I think people are missing your point Cn100, that this was the total number of approvals for the whole year of 2018 and not a new list of recently approved well drilling proposals.

Dunc - I would have agreed with you yesterday that no-one is ramping but today we have a random ramper turn up with no other input other than 'look at the big trades' and ' '36m buys versus 3m buys'. Funny though how we are still red! I wonder how that happened! I wonder if he can even explain how those economics work! Good to see a 'seen it all before' response from our settled holders though.

But I agree re MCap. I am very much with you Dunc that a placing without news if that is what happens in the worst case scenario is just another kick in the bol***ks for holders but that singular event in harsh reality gets rid of the bad news. What follows in such a scenario is I 'hope' (now where have we heard that word before?) likely to be a different kind of news and a different kind of sentiment. MCap even with a placing before news but with approval/finance news thereafter is unlikely to be as low as where we are now.

Thanks for the response Damo. Good to have that input.

Damo with your background what rough timescale could we be looking at for the FE to take place?

Tom, from past utterances by the company I took it that the PPA approval comes after the award:

"If Tlou's proposal is accepted, it will provide an ideal pathway towards a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).'
http://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Half-Year-Report-31-Dec-2018.pdf

'The Company looks forward to a positive decision on its Financial Proposal (the final stage of the RFP
process) in due course.'

And so do we.

Arthurs standout word is 'hope'. I don't think there can be many replies to emails or interviews that don't contain that word, it's a useless word really as far as investors are concerned. There's been a lot of 'hope to have finance', 'hope to have approvals' etc etc but that hope didn't materialise on many previous occasions. His use of it does get tedious even for me. Almost like he is gloating in its use which I am sure he is not;-))

We're certainly getting our money's worth of investing experience here. Belter of a ride.

I've always liked short timescales provided by companies. 6/7 weeks for St2 financing to become clearer or indeed fully agreed. There will be some pain for us I am sure, the financier will get a very good deal. I thought Gina got a good deal and she did but so did we. I also thought we were put up against the grinder for the St1 dilution but again it got us to where we are and with expected earnings diminished but still attractive.

Give and take to come but we are going nowhere without it. Looking forward to seeing what has been negotiated.

'Why, after all the work that has been put in over the previous years, is this project suddenly going to collapse?'

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There is nothing here that points towards this company going under. Are you saying they won't get the next placing away Berta? Do we know yet what comes first news of progress or a placing? Do we know what that news could be, its level of significance or its impact. Crucial points that none of us know yet but you can make the call now that this company is 'likely to go under'. It certainly wouldn't be the first to do so but Isn't it as likely or indeed more likely that the company, having made progress in key areas over the last 7 months, will go on to drill given the extension to the PSC, the Trafigura term sheet, the submission/likely approval of the field development plan and three service providers in negotiations for the financing. Consequently the deteriorating SP both now and if placing is made prior to good news is not a signal for failure of the project. Totally separate issues. One is the result of failure to progress in a timely fashion (deteriorating SP) and the other would be predicated on failure to make progress in key areas. The former has happened the latter hasn't.

Sad to say but there has not been one poster very much including myself, on this board, that had the required knowledge and understanding of the procedure and bureaucracy involved in Nigeria. We can and should call out Arthur for his 'ill-informed' promotion of progress that was never to be and his arrogance towards us shareholders but in reality how much of the delay we have seen has been Arthur's fault? I don't know but I suspect very little. He has probably done what has been asked by the authorities in a timely and professional manner and subsequently important progress has indeed been made.

Rift, My understanding it is the DPR not NNPC who will sign off on the change of control.

From the 2017 prospectus, 'Prospective resources are the arithmetic sum of multiple probability distributions. COPL owns a 40 percent working interest in these properties, contingent upon Nigeria's Ministry of Petroleum Resources approval of the acquisition of EEPL's shares'.

I am taking it from Cathy's 'approvals granted' and Arthur's terse reply to Cn100's email that if anything has been approved it is the NNPC stating that the proposed development of three/four wells has met the minimum obligation of 'one well' to be drilled under Phase 1 of the PSC. Nothing more. Does that also necessitate a service provider being on board? The NNPC have to approve the expenditure on service provision to ensure that prices aren't being inflated to cheat profit margins and therefore tax but is that a separate approval to the meeting of the minimum obligation under Phase 1?

I also took it from the interview with LSE that the service providers have taken the project apart to identify the risks, that has been done by all three it seems, and they are now dealing with the commercial arrangements and the scope of their involvement.

Plenty of wiggle room, innuendo and subtlety available to Art in this vague process of approvals and financing and he is certainly not making things easy for us. I have to accept that is his intention.

I think we are underselling the position we are in. Isn't it the case that Plan A is neither a successful tender nor is Plan B supplying gas to power into the SAPP outside of the tender but rather that both together form Plan A?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-has-best-start-to-a-year-ever-as-opec-production-falls-11551272400