Member Info for NoEasy

Podcasts used to be right up his street Bill. It has been good to see that our progress has changed for the better and perhaps the communication lines can now be reset. There has been a breakdown in relations due on one hand to Arthur's previous communications that provided false hope with timelines completely unmet and on the other hand a breakdown due to the personal abuse he received in return. Another issue was the attempt by some to communicate with Kola Karim to get answers which Kola brought to the attention of Art and a cease and desist was asked for. Informal communications went downhill from there. Not sure how soon they will be resumed.

May also be the case that with so much price sensitive news apparently imminent that this may not be the best time to say anything. He may well be waiting for that bird in the hand rather than risk talking about the two in the bush as that has been his achilles heel in the past.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/16/bp-has-saved-axe-falls-forever-fossil-fuels/

I was going to write that post for you Bonum. It's how you end them all when you don't understand the issue.

Let's keep things honest for the sake of others joining the board, of which there are many lately.

That's me done now on this issue.

Do you actually understand the point about promoting shares on another board, promoting them when their price was high and about to descend rapidly, and then coming on here and telling everyone about how good your investing abilities are. Is there not a little bell ringing somewhere that say's 'hang on I'm really not as good as I have made out".

You bought YU. at circa 60p....but yet you touted it on here at 175p.

You bought MATD at circa 3p and yet touted it at 7.5p.

Unfortunately neither have performed well in the twelve months. In fairness I may have overlooked that your experience, wider perspective and ability to put the pieces together have come as a direct result of these failures, failures particularly of timing if nothing else. That your ability is new and you are quite right to self promote those abilities now.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/16/global-oil-demand-could-hit-record-rate-next-year-iea-warns

',,,,,I seem to have called it right EVERY single time - probably because I'm pretty experienced at looking at the pertinent issues within a wider perspective......and being able to 'correctly' put the pieces together.'

Pity you haven't used that same experience and wider perspective with the other shares you have specifically touted on here. I think you were shouting about YU this time last year, 'Nice stable price range and solid platform for further growth after the previous re-rate. The Finance Directors buys around the current price speaks volumes. Lets await the next breakout, which wont be long coming imo.' That was at 175p. How's has that price played out over the last 12 months?

Let's look at your new share promotion on the COPL board namely MATD. The same time last year the following example, 'Accepting the usual caveats of course with oilers generally, MATD is pretty uniquely positioned and a 'fresh eyes' approach is probably more useful than any past issues - especially with a new, more competent Management team at the helm & better Seismics to go by. Obviously, due to the previous drop, we're experiencing some profit taking from the lower entry positions, albeit the transience is relatively minor when seen from the new trading range thats established (from several weeks ago).
That'll give us a more solid platform for further price appreciation, as we look towards the next breakout and trading range to be established - well watched so like last time, it'll be a rapid & sudden breakout. ' That was at a price of 7.5p.

Or 'BOOOOOOOOOOM soon enough, imho!' That was in October 19 when the price was around 4.5p (big drop from the 7.5p in June).

Well were have MATD gone since the "BOOOOOOOOOM soon enough'?. Down I guess.

Pains me to have to spend time on this but you have a habit of patting yourself on the back with no real right to do so. There's no need to continually tout your other shares here and you seem oblivious to the response it gets from other posters. Your history betrays your own perception of yourself.

Anybody seen the COPL board? Can't seem to find it.

Appreciate its not news that you wanted to hear but I'll call that one out Whizzer. Lifestyle CEO's/Directors use other peoples money to give them the lifestyle. Not their own.

In response to the prevailing market conditions this BoD did this:

'Consequently, Tlou will be implementing significant cost reductions across the Company. This includes senior management: Anthony Gilby (Managing Director) will reduce to 50% of his currently contracted rate backdated to 1 January 2020 and then 25% from 1 April 2020. Colm Cloonan (Finance Director), Gabaake Gabaake (Executive Director) and Solomon Rowland (General Manager) will reduce to 50% of their currently contracted rates backdated to 1 January 2020. Contracted rates are as per the Company's 2019 annual report released on 27 August 2019. The unpaid amounts will not be accrued nor payable by the Company at a later date.'

In today's announcement the BoD have committed to put their own money on the line by subscribing for entitlements and sub -underwriting to the sum of AUS$750k.

Neither supports your view of a lifestyle company. Both support the view of a company that is led by individuals very much prepared to invest their own time and money here.

Provided we get the BDC finance as expected and the money is indeed used to hook us up to the grid then its money that we would have spent at some stage. Would have been nice to have been raising at a higher SP or purely using debt funding (which is also a form of dilution) but we are were we are. We may possibly also see some dilution from the BDC finance solution going forward but again we don't go anywhere without money.

Hasn't gone t$t5 up yet Bob. Hold your horses mate.

p.s. Let me know what you're buying next will you;-))

Essar M can wait to bleed COPL out berta they have the money. However that seems very much doubtful now for the following reasons:

1. From the prospectus regarding risk, '...The Directors are confident that the Group would be able to achieve a disposition of its interest in ShoreCan, since the Shareholders’ Agreement relating to ShoreCan contains a right of first refusal enabling Shoreline to purchase the Group’s interest in the joint venture, ......' .
A concern could have been that Shoreline and Essar M could have climbed into bed together for the purpose of divvying up OPL 226 and together bleeding COPL out. That clearly hasn't been on the table because of this settlement, Shoreline have ended up with less not more. So Essar M won't achieve anything by bleeding COPL out other than handing Shoreline COPL's share. They would also lose something important.

2. COPL are the experts on this project and intimately knowledgeable regarding the Field Development Plan. They could be replaced but that will take time and money. Again given the settlement I believe they intend working with both COPL and Shoreline to realise their 70% potential.

I've personally put the conspiracy theories I did have to bed here now and see this project proceeding with all three parties heavily involved.

Wow Jiving that post gave complete clarity to me. Cheers. Hopefully we can get some strong support from our CEO in terms of communicating facts going forward. ahem!

That term has been banded about quite a bit to describe Art. Yes he can get a deal but a 'master of deals' I'm not so sure. I think he got a great deal with Exxon but the original deal here for OPL 226 did unravel with Art at the helm. Perhaps he should have recognised the writing was on the wall with Essar M a lot earlier on and done something about it, the settlement does tell us they did indeed have a much stronger hand. The result may well have been that we could have been producing as we speak and without the dilution. I wouldn't mind another Exxon type deal though and that may sway me a bit;-)

"The potential rewards are still huge. It just means we will have to share some it with our new Cerp friends."

Perhaps the best statement for understanding why this merger is good for BPC. The only thing we are sharing with our new friends is 'potential'. We've probably all witnessed how 'potential' can play out in oil explorers. The potential here is independently quantified both in terms of what hopefully will happen and the chances of it happening.

Good to have more than two strings to the bow. Indeed might actually be able to play the bow as there appear to be a few extra strings now available to both companies.

I agree also Whizzer. I think however it has got to a point whereby another podcast repeating the same things would do far more harm than good to the SP. If it's not a podcast/interview then it would have to be an RNS. That should only be used for the 'hard news' MM has mentioned. So it's a case here that we have no hard news, it is potential news only. Any investment decisions have to be based on what could happen rather than what is going to happen. Not gone the way we wanted thus far but I'm remaining for the 'potential' which is the reason I ever bother investing in companies such as TLOU.

Be nice to get a bit of a tail wind behind us soon though.

I see no reason for not disclosing

The announcement made it clear how long it will take Cd. The timeframe of 35 days is short, all parties know how things move over there. It stretches even my fertile imagination to think Essar M would go to the trouble of staying the court case and spending time and money completing a formal but conditional agreement to then put an unrealistic timescale on one of those conditions. We shall see but it does very much point to the government being a mutual party to this development.

Who believes in coincidence? No coincidence for me that the SP trading before the news was unusual and that buying in large amounts was more difficult. Whoever was doing that buying is more likely the same as the one doing the selling now.

I think you are right Mk that we are consolidating here.

That's a good point Jiving. We will know 100% for sure if the PSC is extended in a matter of weeks that its not been the government that's been holding things up here, then we should look for another opportunity in Nigeria. If the PSC is extended as expected then the only person I can see that will have enabled that would not be the Ruia's nor Art but Kola. As you say use his influence if we are going to have a project to roll onto.

I see BPC have today announced what mentioned a few days back what Art may well do. They are within months of drilling but have popped up with the acqusition of another licence. Not a foregone conclusion here as we have Moz. Because of issues there my money (figuratively speaking) is on Art & Kola (Shorecan) doing the same before the drill goes down here. Something else to watch for going forward near term.

Lots of things to come out over the coming weeks.

1. The new board structure of Essar Nigeria (that consists of the entities 'Essar Mauritius & Shorecan' , for newcomers) (Shorecan itself is a company set up by COPL & Shoreline also for newcomers). A change to the board is a foregone conclusion given the turn around in control.

2. PSC extension. Expected within the next 30 days. Interesting point here is that the last extension was conditional upon 'the submission of a Performance Bond of $7 million that is required further to the Production Sharing Contract (“PSC”), to cover the Phase-1 exploration period work program at OPL 226.' Can we expect a full extension rather than a conditional one this time around with the bond being paid straightaway? If Essar Mauritius want a confirmed extension then chance they may go for payment straight away. Is the performance bond part of the costs of drilling? We were looking at a $1.75m contribution tot he bond. Has this changed?

3. Performance Bond paid.

4. Once the bond is paid then Ministerial consent on the new share allocation.

There is also the issue of the Mauritius Commercial Bank Limited and Trafigura term sheet. This is without doubt out of the window. Additionally the crude offtake arrangement as part of that term sheet goes with it. It was tied in with us (Shorecan) securing $100m from a service provider and also spending $20-30m, neither of which are our responsibility now although we have probably gone some way to achieving the latter already.

It would also be good to have Art confirm that the field development plan as submitted to the NNPC 18 months ago for Phase 1 and Phase II is still what they will be working to. That, 'involves the drilling and completion of a horizontal oil production well offsetting the 2001 Noa-1 oil discovery well and the drilling and completion of two (2) to three (3) additional high angle oil production wells in the adjacent Noa East fault block from a common wellhead platform, and placing these wells on production in an approved early production scheme.'

Should be a run of forward momentum news coming out relatively quickly.