Forward bookings means cash balances usually fall in q3, q1 and q2 net debt reduction was mainly due to increased cash balance.
BA & Iberia can't make group transfers (dividends) until loans are repaid which can be repaid early. it's somewhere in the accounts. These loans are floating rate whereas there bonds are 1-3% interest. pay off the gov backed loans, maintain cash over 9bn in 2024 would be a big move.
Won't see much debt reduction in q3 beyond whats already been disclosed - 500 million bond repayment in July.
regardless net debt will be going up.
I wonder if in 2024 they could afford to announce the repayment of gov back loans (2bn BA, 1bn Iberia) thus paving the way for dividend resumption in 2025 without restriction.
TomBeef, that's an old quote , analyst average is 2.8bn now, They've booked 1.250bn in q2 and said 80% of q3 sales already booked and q4 were as expected. second half year is always much more profitable than 1st half. Q2 2023 beat Q2 2019 by 30% and I've seen nothing to say something can't be repeated in Q3 and Q4. So i'm saying 1.750bn Q3 & .9BN Q4 subject to what jet fuel does.
Oil keeps going up, above 90 now, US airlines have already said their fuel costs are rising and will impact earnings in q3/4, with a view that economies are going to slow next year you'd want the oil price to go down, but the saudi guys keep cutting production. then there's the impact on inflation........fwiw I still think full year operating profit will be over 3.6bn euro.
Operating profit will be over 3.6bn euro in 2023 but the problem is 2024 - foggy. Can they continue at that level?
the board said it will take 2 years for BA to restore all cabins to 2019 capacity, but they do tend to pessimistic.
Evergrande finally folded
Marginal cost is not going to exceed marginal revenue when increasing passengers flown, unit costs fall with capacity increase. 2023 q2 operating profit beat 2019 by 30% , second half of the year could be similar, Q3 80% revenue booked, Q4 30% and demand remains strong they said.
however, jet fuel prices have been ticking up since July much quicker than oil as have refinery margins.
anyone who like to monitor these things, this is a useful link.
https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/
IAG debt seems over blown to me, feels like lazy reporting when i read some articles that mention debt as a drag on the sp.
right now net debt is the same as it was in dec 2019, as it NB to EBITDA, this year it will fall below 2019. now look at interest income, its rising faster than the debt interest, will probably earn over 400mil 2024 with no dividends or pension contributions to make. 2.5billion of debt has average coupon rate of 2.5% (be mad to repay that) , only 1/4 of debt is floating rate, so just reduce over long term and in the meantime build cash & CE and net interest income
What was the EBIT forecast? 233 is clearly an error.Worth noting that a 6% beat on ubs net income means a record q2 perhaps then the stock will be looked upon like DAL rather than AAL. Also the DB downgrade afew weeks ago is based on their estimates 20% below consensus - lets hope they have to upgrade (again)
Messages keep getting cut. Q2 operating profit less than 900 is bad, 1.050 ok ish and 1200+ with matching forward guidance would see a SP pop. 2024 more important then 23, at least the pension worry has been put to bed.