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Does senior debt take priority for FCF? You'd think higher interest Junior debt would be the one to pay off first

Yes brokers tend to be reactive, I'm sure they'll adjust their stance if share price goes either way. It's the post refinancing cash flow is the issue I.e $75-175m at $100 oil

Not sure Kos are a great company to take over here considering their own debt load. Hopeful it is just oil price related increases

@Tonyb33 Do you know what the numbers are for the higher interest paying junior bonds? I vaguely remember them being about $200-400m of total debt - presumably these will be paid of first

Scrod I guarantee I'm invested here a lot longer than you so it's in my interest to be positive. The fcf after financing is 75-175 ..not 200-300 it should have been that says everything. When was the last time they beat expections?

Well seeing as the company is being bled dry by lenders at extortionate interest rates. there's only two places remaining that growth may come from (given oil is already at an all time high) 1. The repayment of debts owed by Ghana 2. An increase in production.

Scrod...I'm sounding negative. Yes things are a lot better than they were when it looked like it might go under, but this company should be booming at $100 oil not making 10s of millions. Consequently deleveraging is taking much longer than it should.

I'm as long as could be but I'm not happy with this rns either! as it proves TLW are being crucified with ridiculously high interest payments which at $100 oil is barely allowing us to thread water. The FCF should be $200-300m not $75-100m as stated. It means the company cannot realistically make a decent dent in outstanding debt without an increase in production. The repayment of monies owed from Ghana is even more critical.

$100m cash flow on a company with debt of $1.3b

Yes muted reaction from market, unsurprisingly, nothing to get excited about in that rns. This company would likely be in a very bad place if Iran situation hadn't happened. They are being constrained massively by huge interest costs on debt and it shows in that FCF statement. Seems like only increased production will save us or better financing terms.

That FCF figure should be 2-3x at $100 oil shocking really, super disappointing they have $1.3b of debt to pay down

Not great IMO bad hedges again, pre-financing free cash flow2 guide 260-365m and free cash flow2 guide 70-175m ..does that mean we are losing circa 200$m of FCF to refinancing?

I did pick up on that nuance, basically saying 'pre-financing' buffers them from anything they've said previously post-financing. That is a good point. The question is how much terms differ between the two.

Ok well best of luck with those phlabalous and thanks for dropping by

Thanks Tonyb & xxnjr I appreciate the interesting and sensible posts, and calculations thus far

The only picture of hedging structure comes from Kenyan statement: 'Tullow's 2026 pre-financing cash flow guidance of $150-180 million was issued at $65/bbl. Based on realised oil prices in January and February, and an average oil price of $100/bbl for the remainder of 2026, pre-financing cash flow guidance would double.'

Tullow are also due a large payout from government of Ghana of circa $200m.

Just curious Jmax...What's your goal here? Are you long ,short, hold or sidelines? I'm long and am happy to hold for a considerable period yet.

Jmax I think of course there are still risks here as it stands, due to debt load. I guess the reason for the poor share price since then was the drop in production guidance.

@ IK ...Ok I see where you're coming from, yes the actual date of sale and ultimate price is presumably up to Glencore. Tlw can only expect current open market value, which is still good as it stands.

Well the share price will grow once the company begins to pay down debt, at the moment the oil price is giving the opportunity to do that, but it will take a year or two. Price will increase once debt improves.