Member Info for ninjamagic

And that is why I love the LSE board. Thanks FB!

And thus my short term punt in I3E is getting bigger as I learn more about the management and the drill/investment strategy.

I make no secret of getting properly rinsed by the rats at GKP but that pushed me into BMN where my original investment is something absurd like 600% up.

I did not. The SP sailed through the 30s and 40s and nobody throught it would stop. As a LTH I know the future upside for BMN is enormous so had no intention to sell. I'm not really a trader, I am 80% value investor and 20% punter.

Saturday night on the BMN board and anything goes!

Similar to Bushveld Minerals about 6 years ago -- a sell off sent the SP down to 3.4p. I got in then and still hold them today. I think I3E is going to make many multiples of this weeks current SP.

I’ve had my fingers burned in the past by AIM listed companies that were run by scumbags.

With Bushveld Minerals I’ve been a shareholder for about 6 years now and one thing rings more truer about Bushveld Minerals than any other company I’ve researched or invested in: they do what they say they are going to do. Often without fanfare.

To all new investors looking at Bushveld Minerals — you need to think of them as the strong silent type. Fortune Mojapelo is not the type of CEO who shouts about what he’s doing, his body language in the recent Crux interview was very telling. (he even used the mastermind pose before catching himself and stopping) but he is rightfully confident in his plans, which he is continually executing. Thus I too have full confidence in him, Mikhail and the Bushveld team.

If you’re dropping in to read this board, don’t let the trolls and the shorters scare you off. In fact, they might be doing you a favour, much like the below link points to a decline in the SP which was my original catalyst for investing.

http://www.theel1tetrader.com/2013/10/bushveld-minerals-take-advantage-of.html

Anyway - the future is bright, the future is Bushveld.

Ninja

I should that report that post Tom. ;) Thats like the worst of the worst insult. To share 12.5% DNA with a troll....

To be clear: Expert10201 is a paid troll.

My cousin is quite an idiot - he's 43, still lives with his mum, has no qualifications, is single, has no friends and has very questionable hygiene.

My aunty is rightfully worried -- I've reassured her that he is employable -- and that I know exactly the place that will take him on (and let him live off his favourite meal of mayonnaise sandwiches, whilst sitting in his underpants playing Doom on his old Pentium 3)

So, Expert -- please, how does he become a paid troll? Is there an application process? He doesn't really have a CV, but maybe you can put a word in with your boss?

Many thanks,

Ninja

Three months. I'll buy that for a dollar.

formatting's F'ed - sorry - click on the PDF to see the proper table

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

(Dec year end) 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
FeV price US$/kg 81 45 45 45 45 45
Vanadium sales mtV 2,573 3,060 4,114 5,432 6,168 7,645
Sales+ US$m 192.1 132.1 177.7 234.6 266.3 330.2
Cash Op costs US$m -65.3 -62.2 -78.6 -101.3 -110.5 -129.9
Unit Cash Op costs+ US$/kg 25.4 20.3 19.1 18.6 17.9 17.0
Operating profit US$m 95.2 42.7 72.3 103.7 123.3 162.9
Pre-tax profit US$m 86.6 44.2 69.6 101.7 121.3 161.3
Tax US$m -37.6 -12.6 -19.8 -29.0 -34.6 -46.0
Post-tax profit US$m 49.0 31.6 49.8 72.7 86.8 115.3
EPS US$c/s 2.90 2.03 3.29 5.03 6.14 8.52
PE x 10.4 14.9 9.2 6.0 4.9 3.6
EV/EBITDA x 2.7 6.6 3.9 2.7 2.3 1.8
EBITDA US$m 101.2 46.2 79.0 113.4 134.6 174.3
Free Cash Flow (100%) US$m 32.2 -12.4 4.2 29.4 64.0 112.3

PDF
https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_Vanchem_Deal_Completion.pdf

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* Planning passed the 20-day appeal period and EIA now authorised.

* Lease finance for vanadium in VRFB batteries: rental contract agreed with Avalon and its customer, Sandbar, in the US.

* Brits vanadium resource: to be published along with the Q4 operational update.

* Mokopane mine: A DFS on the Main Magnetite Layer and a resource / reserve assessment for feedstock to Vanchem is due H2 2020.

* Vametco based Solar Mini-Grid: completed a grid connection and geotechnical studies. Procurement for the project has commenced.

* Lemur: DFS to progress following preliminary findings and coal mine optimisation study. Negotiations for the construction of the power station with Sinohydro (PowerChina) are advanced due completion by the year end.

* Debt: Bushveld recently secured ~US$25m in facilities through Vametco with Nedbank in the form of a R250m loan and a R125m revolving credit facility. This is carved out from the obligation to repay 50% of any debt raised over US$15m, provided no more than 50 per cent of the Vanchem loan notes have been repaid.

* Valuation: We have recently reviewed our modelling on Bushveld on the Q3 operating performance and on the acquisition of Vanchem and the impact of the renegotiated price and debt facilities.

* Our valuation raises to 82p from 80p due to better performance at Vametco and improved terms on the Vanchem deal.

* Assumptions: our key assumptions are in the table below. We expect the price for ferro-vanadium to recover over the next few months with buying activity expected to return to the market supporting a price of US$45/kg next year.

Conclusion: Bushveld have worked hard in recent months to achieve a significant improvement in the performance at Vametco. The group now appears well set to repeat this success at Vanchem following confirmation of its acquisition today.
We are looking forward to new demand for vanadium from new VRFB instillations and for Bushveld Energy’s strategic positioning within this new technology sector to enable the Bushveld to grow with the sector as it develop.

1/2

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Strong Buy - Price 23.3p, Mkt Cap £268m
Bushveld completes Vanchem acquisition as Vametco reports production of >300mtV in September
(Bushveld Minerals owns 74% of Vametco, 100% of Vanchem, 84% of Bushveld Energy in South Africa, 100% of Lemur Holdings, 9.5% of Afritin)
Valuation raised to 82p (from 80p)

* Bushveld Minerals report a substantial increase in Nitrovan, vanadium-magnetite concentrate in September following significant improvement at Vametco.

* Production of Nitrovan rose to >300mtV in September a new record from the processing of vanadium-in- magnetite concentrate feedstock on its own.

* The increase in production means that Bushveld is on track to meet its target of 2,800-2,900mtV for the year.

* Costs: of US$18.90-19.50/KgV for the year also remain on track and are below our estimates.

* Q3 production fell 24% to 561mtV of Nitrovan from 742mtV in Q2 due to planned maintenance which completed 2 days ahead of schedule.

* Environmental: Kiln off-gas project initiated at Vametco to achieve better environmental performance and improve kiln feed throughput, due for completion in H1 2020.

* Further works at Vametco completed:
* Improving crusher and mill availability, and throughput rates
* increase kiln availability and hourly feed rate
* better recovery rates
* improvement in leach recoveries

* Vanchem acquisition completed for US$53.5m vs US$68m along with approval for the Mokopane mining right application.

* Bushveld Energy: have committed US$5m to the takeover of redT Energy Plc by Avalon Battery Corp.

* Avalon manufacturers VRFB batteries and is looking for US$30m to roll out its strategy for European VRFB development.

* Supporting Avalon gives Bushveld exposure to the VRFB battery market in the UK, Europe and North America.

* Electrolyte Plant: capacity for 200MWh pa for a capital cost of US$10m to be financed by Bushveld and the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa.

There is a film industry term that fits nicely: "hurry up and wait."

As long as the info gets out there ! That's the important and exciting part. And it is exciting.

haha! I checked the board to see if anybody had posted it --!

Conclusion:  Our increasing reliance on Wind and Solar power means energy storage is critically important to stabilise electricity supply.
VRFB batteries are competing with Li-ion and other grid power storage devices but we expect much Li-ion battery supply to be taken up by Electric Vehicle manufacturers leaving the way open for longer-duration and safer VRFB batteries to find their niche in this rapid-growth market.

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* If the Avalon / RedT deal does not complete then Bushveld can convert the loan directly into Avalon shares.
*
* The energy storage market presents a very large commercial opportunity, potentially exceeding $300 billion by 2030.
*
* Larry Zulch, CEO of Avalon Battery, said: "A commitment to renewable energy is increasingly a commitment to large-scale energy storage. This storage must be dependable, safe and economical”
*
* Bushveld see VRFB original equipment manufacturer’s known as OEMs as critical drivers for the success of VRFB technology in Grid energy storage supporting wind and solar farms as they become an increasing feature of our grid power supply.
*
* Bushveld is looking to establish of a new VRFB Investment Platform for strategic investments to support VRFB sector growth and is partnering with utilities such as ESKOM in South Africa to trial and showcase VRFB grid storage.
*
* Navigant Research estimate the energy storage market should grow at a massive 58% pa eg >100GWh and US$50bn pa by 2027 with 90% of the market dominated by long duration use technologies, including transmission and distribution asset optimization and peak load support, requiring four or more hours of storage where VRFBs are competitive.
*
* Navigant reckons VRFBs should capture 18% of the total stationary energy storage market by 2027.
*
* The recent DNV-GL Energy Transition Outlook 2019: Power Supply and Use noted that by 2050 installed energy storage capacity will approach 30 terawatt hours.
*
* In comparison, that amount is six times what will be deployed through pumped hydro and more than twice the energy storage capacity provided to the power system by electric vehicles.
*
* Bushveld reckon ‘the energy storage market presents a sizeable commercial opportunity, potentially exceeding $660bn by 2040’.
*
* Bushveld Energy: we currently value Bushveld Energy at 8.4p/s representing 84% of our $149m valuation.
*
* We assume the division is involved in just 90MW of VRFB sales in 2021 rising to 180MW in 2022 and 260MW in 2023, stabilising at 540MW of VRFB sales from 2024.
*
* We also assume the business produces vanadium electrolyte for VRFB instillations at 125MWh capacity in 2021, 250MWh in 2022, 500MWh in 2023 stabilising at 750MWh from 2025.
*
* Our modelling assumes relatively modest margins on the VRFB instillations and electrolyte sales which we hope Bushveld Energy will improve on.
*
* We assume a price of $8/lb for vanadium pentoxide in our VRFB model vs current vanadium prices of $6.3-6.4/lb in China and $5.26-6.16/lb in Rotterdam.
*