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Chatter starting to pick up on the RCLF ticker on stocktwits as people are starting to understand the huge potential of Spectral and word spreads. Someone mentioned that the bid submission deadline for the BARDA contract is 1st September and the expected commencement of contract is 29th September. This would be great timing for a post merger boost.
Spoken with true confidence CheeseWeasel. Good to hear. I too want to hold for the long term. Wide moat company with multiple expansions on the horizon and US Govt backed. I'm very heavily invested in this for me such is my confidence, so might try to take a little back post merger which should still leave me with substantial investment in Spectral AI and a nice share of the AI pie!
Good post Jimzi. Can't disagree with any of that. I trawl through a of stocks and I haven't seen anything as comprehensive as this. As you said, US Govt is basically a sound due diligence. So what does everybody think the SP will do? It seems to be consolidating around high 40s low 50s at the moment. I'm surprised it's not higher. But I'd be expecting this to gradually go higher or maybe just explode up towards £1 once both shareholders agree (even though it should be a formality). But it's a risk to wait as if you're not in it will be difficult to catch on the way up. Then post merger, is it correct that Institutional holders and certain larger Insider holdings will be subject to a lock up. I'm assuming many people will be profit taking post merger and still keeping money in as it as this company has such promise to deliver much higher gains still. Just wondering if there will be a post merger flash dip? Anybody have any experience / thoughts about it or strategies in mind?
I'd like to know that too. Just to throw a rough calculation out there:
Let's say the contract is $450m across 3 years. So $150m per year.
From Page 30 of the presentation Spectral is estimated for 2023 to have a market cap of 5.9x revenue. So that would be $150m x 5.9 = $885m. But this multiplier should increase with time and the average AI multiplier is 15x. So that would give $150m x 15 = $2.25 bn
I'm sure there's much more to it, but that's a quick back of the cigarette packet calc from me. There may be other contracts on top of that as well. I'm assuming of course that we get that US govt contract, but from what I've seen it's highly likely.
Would be great to hear other people's thoughts.
Yes, I noticed that too. Seems that the certification news for Spectral yesterday was well received in US. Good signs.
I would say near enough a certainty.
The proxy statement has just been filed by Rosecliff. Their shareholders will be meeting on 6th September to vote for or against the merger.
All in now. This is now the second largest holding in my portfolio at an average price of 45 pence per share. I believe in this and now happy to sit back and wait. Good luck to all fellow investors.
God bless America! :)
Interesting read. Shows the danger of poor business execution, capital market funding dried up, investors pulled money and cash just got burnt. EV seems a difficult industry to compete in as well. Spectral is definitely significantly undervalued at present. Strengths: A unique patented product, large and growing addressable market (burn wounds, diabetic foot ulcers and others to follow), a hot trending AI sector and backed by the US Government which is one of the ultimate seals of quality and approval. One of the reasons for the Nasdaq listing is a deeper pool of capital and there should be plenty of interest in Spectral. I believe it's a golden opportunity to get in early before the mainstream hear about it. Once this is Nasdaq listed hopefully it's true value will be realised and with additional funding, contract wins and growth it feels like a winner.
Full faith in you Jimzi. Another question for the floor, as this is my first SPAC deal. Let's say the deal goes through which is highly probable and we all get our Spectral AI shares. Is it usual for those new SPAC shares (Spectral AI for us) to retain their value or is there a usually some sort of sell off initially? Obviously there are exciting catalysts for Spectral in September with the highly likely contract award which should see the share price surge higher, but initially does a sell of usually occur in such cases.
Https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/vadim-alexandre-discusses-spectral-md-lunglife-ai-destiny-pharma--30c5162/
Excellent podcast with Vadim Alexandre yesterday. Talks about Spectral deal, the company prospects and says that all respectable brokers will deal it. The podcast starts with Spectral at the beginning.
Ehoey, all ok. I have a corporate action message from AJ Bell dated 17th April that I forgot about. It says "Spectral MD Holdings shareholders will not have to take any action in relation to this proposed acquisition and will remain shareholders following the acquisition" It then says the name will change from Spectral MD Holdings Ltd to Spectral AI and will be listed solely on the Nasdaq subject to shareholder approval. So pretty clear that it should be a smooth transition.
Cool. Thanks Jimzi. Good to know they should remain within the ISA too. Seems like most of the main brokers should be able to transition this.
Will do. There is hope! It does feel like AJ Bell can do the transition. By the way the search you have to put in is "Rosecliff Acquisit Com USD.001CL A" That brings up RCLF, not the search I mentioned previously. Although if Jimzi is right, then it will be Spectral AI (MDAI) that we will be converted to.
From one of the registration documents filed with the SEC, my understanding was that first of all the Spectral MD shares will be RCLF and then subsequently converted to Spectral AI (MDAI). However, I may be wrong as it was quite a detailed document. If you are correct, then it may make things simpler.
Ah ok. That's what I did. I searched for RCLF but couldn't find anything. However, if you put Rosecliff Acquisit C/WTS into the search they do appear. The message I got from AJ Bell was "Please be advised, the corporate actions team have informed me that as there is not yet an offer document available and the event is preliminary, we are unable to confirm whether customers will be receiving ADRs and whether we will be able to hold them. The SPAC merger is subject to a meeting expected Q3 2023 and once the circular is released, we will be able to advise further on this query. Please note that we have an active file and are monitoring the situation and as soon as more information is available, we will release a secure message to shareholders".
In a previous message he told me that in these situations it is usually a smooth transition. He sent the query to the Corporate Actions team and they came back with the above message.
I use AJ Bell. I asked them last week if I can hold the new RCLF shares and they said they won't be able to advise until they receive the circular which should be on or around 18th August. Ehoey, how do you know about AJ Bell? Have they told you this or have you found it somewhere?
Well that's the circular about delisting from AIM to be sent around 18th August to Spectral shareholders. Another step in the right direction.