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Just for your information. I hold most of my shares in an ISA, but some of my Spectral AI holding is in my dealing account. I made inquiries yesterday to a tax team and they say that any uplift in revaluation from equivalent of just under $5 in my case to the $10 we will receive is not subject to capital gains tax. So good news there from tax perspective. Although I expect it to go much higher than $10 and anything above that will be subject to capital gains unless held in a tax wrapper / ISA.
Good sign that it's consolidating around high $4s / low $5s. Once the shorts and weak hands get out over the first few days, word spreads and BARDA contract hits, should move upwards fast! Such a promising company. Quality will always prevail. Just need to hold tight and not worry about near term volatility.
Still can't trade MDAI on my platform. From their message it did sound that it may be a few days before we can trade.
Not worried at all about the short term stock price, but it does annoy me that it can be manipulated downwards. Effectively anything under $5 is allowing these players to get in at prices roughly equivalent to what most of us would have been buying in at pre-merge. They must have strategies and co-ordinate to bring it down so they can load up.
Just posted on stocktwits, this twitter post seems like a viable explanation of what's going on.....
"Everyone in #SMD has yet to receive their shares in $MDAI.
Given that $RCLF never traded below $9 who's selling?
I think the SP tanking has more to do with shorters capitalising on a tiny float with most investors being unable to trade as brokers get their s**t together".
https://twitter.com/whiskyandstocks/status/1701610940473778476?s=46&t=2lRSGCt4iOFe7J3GnyX6Ig
All short term noise in my opinion. Takes a few days to get these weak hands and short term speculators washed out. Half of them don't even know what they are invested in. Barda contract will be the wake up call to the market.
Hope we do go up and hold. I had similar plans to take out the cost of what I invested and leave the profits in. The good thing is that the BARDA contract should be very soon which will give an excellent post merger boost. And the company itself has excellent long term prospects. Potential of a buyout in the future as well which could command a significant premium. But it may decide to go it alone as well and continue to grow.
Thanks for the info. It seems that most platforms will have a delay in receiving the shares. Might be a good thing to be forced to sit on the sidelines whilst volatility plays out. Think this one is definitely a long term hold for me.
I searched for MDAI on yahoo finance and it looks like pre-market has already started. It's at $22! Being well received. Could be some short term volatility as the day traders get shaken out. But when BARDA hits, could rocket.
I'm with AJ Bell. They advise that the new company intends to issue shares in book entry form (as opposed to being deposited electronically). That means they will be issued with DRS statements representing the shares in Spectral AI. Once received they will be deposited with AJ Bell's overseas custodian and then cross boarded into the CREST system to allow electronic trading. They say as a result there will be a delay in the ability to trade the new shares until this happens.
I think we receive 1 share of $10 in the MDAI for every 8 shares held in the old SMD.
So $10/8=$1.25 per share which is around £1.01 per share.
Yes, as per the filings. SMD stopped trading at 7am. So we are in a nice position whereby we just sit and wait until Tuesday when we will be credited with shares of Spectal AI (ticker: MDAI) at $10 per share (equivalent to around £1.01 per share of SMD). So for most, at least doubling their money.
Well done everyone for getting in and then holding as the fun played out yesterday. From the comments I've seen on stocktwits for RCLF, many of these investors in RCLF don't know a thing about Spectral including what the company is even called. They are just trying to trade the volatility of the SPAC transaction. So probably be ready to expect volatility between now and after the merge. How long that will be I don't know. But with the almost certain BARDA contract in September, that could send the MDAI price right up so gives me confidence to ignore short term noise and volatility. I saw one commentary on RCLF saying "Latest SPAC merger approval, AI wound tech, ran nearly 100% on low float, technicals indicate downside but market may surprise us". Am I right to assume that's just short term bs though for day traders?
RCLF seems to have strong support at $13 yesterday. If anyone has previous experience of this type of transaction please comment and let us know how you see it playing out so far. Has this been text book SPAC behaviour so far? Was a high of $19 yesterday a good performance to a typical SPAC deal? Any expectations of how the stock price may react once listing takes place on Tuesday? Low float, warrants make it more favourable for long term holders, right?
Cheers for any insights.
It's RCLF at the moment. It will become MDAI on 12th September.
https://stocktwits.com/symbol/RCLF
Form 8k registered with the SEC now. So official. All proposals backed by the required number of votes.
According to Yahoo, about 80% inside ownership. There are probably better sources though.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMD.L/holders?p=SMD.L
Top 2 holders appear to be Erich Spangenberg (an entrepreneur and patent expert) who owns c55m shares and J Michael Dimaio (a Dallas based Cardiothoracic surgeon) owns c25.5m shares. Wensheng Fan (founder) owns 1.5m shares, but I'm sure he must have more ownership through another vehicle.
It doesn't appear that insiders have sold a single share.
"The budgetary allocation to artificial intelligence and machine learning in the healthcare sector is expected to reach 10.5% in 2024, up from 5.5% in 2022, Morgan Stanley said in a recent research report, citing industry-specific implications of the rapidly evolving field."
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4008712-ai-eleven-percent-healthcare-budgets-2024-morgan-stanley
Does anybody think that Spectral AI could be primed for a buyout by one of the big healthcare companies (either soon or if it takes a while longer to develop it's products further). Or it could go it alone. Very promising future ahead.
Also, good posts late yesterday from some of the more experienced investors. Definitely gives me comfort, although I'm already confident in my investment. When famous investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch talk about knowing what you own, this is a prime example. There is a lot of noise around the transaction etc, but the only question to ask is, is the current market cap of c£67million undervalued, especially with big US Govt contracts on the horizon. My view is that it is hugely undervalued. By buying in at current prices, we are effectively buying at less than $5 per share and on 8th Sept, all being well, those shares will be $10 with great prospects to go higher. An automatic margin of safety from the outset.
HL are obliged to inform people that there is a risk of holding de-listed shares. It's like if you are going into an operation and have to sign a form which makes you aware that there is always a chance of something going wrong (even if only a remote possibility). The SPAC shareholders are meeting on Wednesday 6th September to approve this transaction and in my opinion it's almost a certainty to be approved. Once approved on or around 8th September Spectral AI will list on Nasdaq and we should receive shares equivalent to 101 pence which is more than double current share price. Often SPACs are dilutive in nature but from what I've seen over 80% of shares held by major investors are subject to lock up (no selling) for 180 days. There may be a bit of dilution after the listing on Nasdaq but with a highly likely contract from BARDA to be awarded later this month, it could go much higher than listing price. That's my investment thought process anyway. Just waiting on confirmation from AJ Bell that they can actually hold the new shares on their platform. They should have informed us by now. I assume that it's most likely that they can.
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