Berenberg: BT edging towards the cashflow prize12 Jan 2026 09:49
BT is closing in on the cashflow prize although losses do not appear to be over, says Berenberg.
Analyst Nick Lyall retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and increased the target price from 240p to 250p on the Citywire Elite Companies AA-rated telecoms group, which was trading down 0.8%, or 1.5p, at 180p at the time of writing.
UK alternative carriers have ‘inflicted three years of line losses on BT Group’s Openreach, taking 2m lines and 10 percentage points of market share’, said Lyall.
‘The losses do not appear to be over: we expect another 840,000 lines to be lost this year and for 1.7m more line losses over the next three-and-a-half years,’ he said.
However, Lyall concluded that the ‘prospects for the alternatives remain difficult’ as while their network build-out has ‘more or less stopped’ cumulatively they have amassed £14bn of debt.
‘Given an Ebitda outflow of around £100m in 2025, suggests that average penetration must at least double for the major alternatives to break even after current interest payments,’ he said.
https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/expert-view-carnival-3i-cerillion-bt-and-elementis/a2481443?page=4