Member Info for NigeCo

Https://www.investingcube.com/bt-share-price-keeps-tanking-amid-latest-ofcom-investigation/

03-Jul-23 Barclays Overweight - 270.00 Reiteration

Management should consider starting the planned 1% company share buyback now, not wait for the share price to recover to 150p plus. Start it tomorrow.

JAdams, thanks for the update mate. Interesting turn of events. Promising.

Maybe dead money for now in BT, but once FTTP is completed..... BT will become a cash cow. IMO.

Was that one last bear squeeze. One large 100k sell trade at 13:12pm. FOOOOOOLS.

Turbo charged session from #SFOR. A few clearly watched the Artificial Intelligence briefing combined with metrics and steepening cash from operations estimates.

S4 Capital (SFOR LN +8.1%)rose and extended its streak of gains to five. The ad agency's aggressive rollout of artificial intelligence products should give it a first-mover advantage, Barclays said. The company hosted a virtual briefing session on AI on Wednesday.

JAdams, fair point mate, regarding your analyst friend. I currently only own shares in 2 companies. But I do have other investments.

JAdams...... "Thanks NigeCO. I’m more bullish than consensus right now and strongly think there’s conservatism in the forecasts. One analyst I talked to also agreed with me."

Morning JAdams, you mentioned the above yesterday mate. I'm just a little curious. Would you be willing to disclose who your analyst friend works for, and any info that you would be willing to share would be most welcome. Obviously no names need to be named. Cheers.

Quiet.

Agreed, with a 3p spread between bid & offer price. Quite start.

"What share price for open reach if it’s sold off ?"

My guess would be in the region of £20 BILLION.

The planned 1% of S4 Capital share buyback approximately 6 million shares could start as soon as Monday 3/7/2023. I see no reason to delay, buy now while they are cheap as chips.

JAdams, no, thank you mate for your info, in regards Bloomberg trading info. It confirms what I suspected and makes perfect sense.

LSELoser, I enclose the latest analyst earnings forecasts below. You will see that Net Debt is increasing, this is related to payments for past M&A that will all be paid for in this financial year. From next year, you will see that S4 Capital are expected to move in to profit, starting in 2024 and Net Debt will decrease considerably going forward.

9/6/2023 Latest analysts earnings forecasts for S4 Capital...

2023

Revenue £1,172B (2022 £1,069B)

Earnings -£36.733m (2022 -£169.634m)

EBITDA £158.0m (2022 £124.2m)

FCF £44.8m (2022 £60.371m)

Cash From Operations £116.5m (2022 £78.262m)

Net Debt £190.0m (2022 £110.2m)

2024

Revenue £1.334B

Earnings £58.9m (first year of profit)

EBITDA £192m

FCF £82.467m

Cash From Operations £174.3m

Net Debt £111.0m

2025

Revenue £1.554B

Earnings £82.967m

EBITDA £230m

FCF £107.3m

Cash From Operations £200.0m

Net Debt £15.6m

Just to point out, Net Debt drops considerably each year after this 2023.

JAdams, the proof will be in the pudding mate. All that S4 need to do is meet or beat expected analysts forecasts and S4 share price will recover, and recover at a pace I would think.

I will stick my neck out and predict that if S4 can produce the expected financial results by YE 2025 I'm thinking that the share price will start with at least a 4. Time will tell.

Just for anyone who may be wondering just how I came to this future valuation / share price prediction, I will explain.....

I will use the S4 Capital issued shares that we started the year at, based on the 1% of new shares will be re purchased by S4 in the second half of this year.

Agencies are usually traded for roughly 10X EBITDA (I personally think that S4 should trade at a premium to this) JMO.

Expected EBITDA YE 2025 £230m

So £230m X 10 = £2.3bln

Subtract expected Net Debt YE 2025 £16m

= £2.284bln

Divided by the amount of S4 Capital shares in issue 574,327,690.

= share price 397p

I might add that S4 management have recently indicated at the AGM that managements number one priority for future capital allocation will indeed be share buybacks. So my predicted valuation could increase depending on future share buybacks, between now and YE 2025.

JAdams,

Baron Investments who claims to have picked up 1.5m S4 shares over the past week or so, also tweeted the following.

Baron Investments.... "Broker who was hammering out stock at S4 Capital has finally gone"

JAdams5000,

Thanks for your reply mate. Your findings answer a lot of questions regarding selling pressure. I agree, future cash flows in S4 are forecast to be quite remarkable. If S4 can meet or beat analysts earnings forecasts then we should be in a for a strong recovery in the share price by YE 2025. IMO.

I hope that you're right Larry.