Member Info for Nickderby

Happy New Year everyone.
Looking forward to a great year in 2021 :)

I think the difference is probably Geoffrey Sproule's holding of 1.5m shares.
He is included as a director in the 2019 accounts, but is not listed on the website as a director now.

Nomad, I think a look at Mirabaud's broker note may help.
https://i3.energy/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20201102-Mirabaud-i3-Energy.pdf

For 2021 they forecast 9,046boepd at an average realised price of just $22.20. This is an average of Gas at $2.50, NGL at $21.60 and Oil at $39.
These figures give revenue of $73.4m, Ebitda of $29.60m and Fcf of $17.2m.

At current Brent prices our Fcf should be looking excellent and hopefully the Q1 dividend will surprise the market.
Throw in a farm out and I think we will all be very happy!

B00oooM, the broker's figures aren't wrong, they just use Brent as a starting point so that it is easier for investors to see what their assumptions are based on. Mirabaud then discount the Brent figure to the figure that I3E would realise if the Brent figure was at $45.
For example in 2021, they use Brent of $45 and a realisation price of $39bbl for I3E.

G_G_G, ok that's fair enough, It's always good to see actual numbers.

The larger and more important figures obviously relate to the Gain transaction and there appears to be a lot of cash being thrown off there. According to the Company in their presentation from August, the Break Even figure for Gain (opex and royalties) is just $9.40 Boe. Using an October production split of 62% Gas & 38% Oil that leaves a huge cash surplus at current pricing levels.

At today's price I3E looks a bargain. The Institutions were certainly keen to throw millions into the Company at around the current share price and they would certainly have done their due diligence.

I have already bought a large holding, but as you say let's wait and see the figures....

G_G_G, you may have already seen this Mirabaud report dated 2nd November.
https://i3.energy/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20201102-Mirabaud-i3-Energy.pdf

Their FCF forecast for 2021 is $17.2m - using a Brent price assumption of $45bbl.

'We forecast FY21 EBITDA of US$30m and FCF of US$17m, of which we
expect c.US$4.9m to be paid out in dividends'

Considering Brent is nearer $50bbl now, I would expect the Company to be throwing off cash at these levels.
Bring on the Q1 dividend!

Faramog, its time to get excited when the tantalum credits kick in.
Here is a small section from today's broker note...

'Our DCFs for a fully optimised Phase 1 and Phase 2 remain ~US$89m and ~US$187m,
respectively, on a 100% basis. As shown in the table below we apply a blended
average risking of ~0.6x to account for the early development stage of Phase 2
and some elements of Phase 1. We then adjust for net debt and further funding
required to give a risked SOTP of ~US$132m. On a per share basis our fully
diluted SOTP remains 11.7p per share, implying >5x upside from the current
price. Even ignoring any value for Phase 2, we note our SOTP based on Phase 1
alone would come to ~5p/share, still implying 127% upside vs yesterday’s close'

Faramog, the 11.7p target is from today's broker note.
I asume you are quoting an older one.

Hannam partners target for Feb next year is 11.7p.
Someone posted this on A D V F N - check it out over there.

I won't post it here due to copyright laws.

' We forecast FY21 EBITDA of US$30m and FCF of US$17m, of which we
expect c.US$4.9m to be paid out in dividends. At the current share price of 4.05p/shr, this implies
an impressive yield of 13.3%. We reiterate our BUY stance with an updated 10.7p/shr target price.'

https://i3.energy/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20201102-Mirabaud-i3-Energy.pdf

Max buy at 11p is now just 7,000 shares on Interactive.
Maybe they have really gone! :)

Max buy at 10.75p is just 7,000 shares on Interactive.
Seller gone..... we can but hope! :)

Brgmg69, from the RNS....
'at a 5% discount to the prevailing 10-day volume weighted average Bushveld Minerals share price leading up to conversion;

Brgmg69, they seem strange questions for someome fully researched?

BMN is down today because the GS selling continues - 3 x 250k and possibly 2 x 400k.
$6.5m conversion terms - check out the Vanchem acquisition RNS last year, the details are quite clear.
Next placing - Use your excellent knowledge of the business :)

Great news Pdub/GND. Congratulations to you both.
I hope you have a great day and life together.

Macanman, ignore the split of buys/sells, its been possible to buy below the mid price all day and even buy at the bid price on occasions. Its currently 12.175p to buy, which will obviously show as a sell.

Still here folks :)

I don’t feel the need to post anymore, there’s so much great research provided by everyone else!
Shame about our regular trolls though, I find them so frustrating....

It’s still a very exciting time to be a Bushveld shareholder.
So undervalued, coiled spring! :)

Good luck everyone.

Afternoon Knuttie, sorry I popped out after posting.
Hope you and your wife are ok.

I can sell 1.5m at the moment.
There doesn't seem much of an overhang today! :)

'Prices of vanadium nitride (VN) in China reached a seven-month high as of June 9, mainly because of the solid demand from domestic steel mills enjoying high steel production, market sources said on Wednesday. '

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/chinas-vanadium-nitride-prices-surge-on-high-demand/