Member Info for Nickderby

Taken from the SP Angel broker note accompanying these results....

'Valuation: The fall in unit costs raises our valuation for Vametco and Vanchem following
its acquisition to 92p/s from 90p/s. We value Bushveld’s ownership of Bushveld Energy at
8.8p/s and we have adjusted our valuation on the other assets within the group to 5.4p/s.

Conclusion: It is remarkable that improvements at Vametco mean the business has almost met
our full-year EBITDA forecast in the first half. '

Quite an achievement! :)

https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_H1_update_300719.pdf

Of course, let's not forget the numbers!

H1 Revenue - US$74.3 million.
H1 EBITDA - US$48.6 million.

Vametco achieved an EBITDA margin in excess of 50 per cent, underpinned by strict controls on unit cost and a weaker ZAR.

Cash elephant! :)

Just looking back at the Q2 operational update.
So much good news there....

Highest production in over 2 years.
Overall plant recovery continues to improve.
On course to hit production guidance.
Lower production costs.
AMCU negotiations concluded for the 3-year period to 20 June 2022.
Electrolyte plant is on schedule.
Eskom battery commissioned and being tested under various conditions.
The first batch of electrolyte was successfully produced, samples sent to vanadium battery companies for testing.
Mini Grid work has commenced.
A definitive feasibility study has commenced for the development of the Mokopane mine.
Etc etc!

Excellent progress!

Buy the dips, where you can! :)

DYOR

A summary of the latest broker targets.

SP Angel - target 92p.
This is based on FeV prices of $50 per kg for 2019 and a long term price of just $45 per kg.

https://www.uploadlibrary.com/SPAngel_JohnMeyer/Bushveld_H1_update_300719.pdf

ARC - target 43p.

This includes nothing for Vanchem or Bushveld Energy.

Also, it is based on FeV prices of:
$49 per kg in 2019,
$45 per kg in 2020 and beyond.

However, their target share price increases to £1.05 at an FeV price of $85 per kg and Rand/$ rate of 14.

Using a discount rate of 5% with FeV at $85 per kg, ARC have a share price target of £1.77.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Much-improved-Q2-sees-Vametco-back-on-track.pdf

BMO Capital have initiated an outperform rating and a target price of 55p.

They use long term FeV prices of $40 per kg.

They also say...
‘Increased intensity of use in China and beyond could see significant support to the vanadium price going forward. Even a 10% increase in price over our existing forecast, whilst using existing multiples would increase our target price to £0.70/share.’

https://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/D1A05CFA-6101-4F16-8646-A9AB04A239F3.PDF

Finally, Peel Hunt recently initiated a buy rating and gave a short term target of 45p, with ‘solid near term growth plans’ as well as ‘further upside’ expected.

Remember, Fortune Mojapelo..... ‘The story of Bushveld Minerals is not yet half told’.

All the above targets show why BMN is just at the beginning of its journey north.

Cash elephant! :)

DYOR.

It’s all very quiet on the news front, so let’s have a reminder of what we can look forward to over the next few weeks/months....

Q3 Vametco results, due October/November, will be excellent due to the increasing production expected.

Q3 update for Bushveld Energy showing further progress made in the quarter. Eskom VRFB testing news. Contracts?

Q3 Lemur update.

Other news in no particular order...

Vanadium price starting to increase again due to the large structural supply deficit.
Vanchem acquisition completion, increasing our production capacity further.
Vanchem upgrade program.
News of phase 3 increases in Vametco production capacity.
Vametco mini grid news.
Mokopane mining licence.
Mokopane news of early revenue generation.
Mokopane DFS news.
Details any projects BE are currently working on.
Bushveld Energy contracts (from the hundreds of enquires received).
Eskom VRFB testing news.
Eskom contract.
Electrolyte production facility progress.
UET final partnership details.
Leasing partner news.
Additional contracts through Avalon Energy.
BE partnerships and critical supply agreements.
News about the BE production facility.
Imaloto coal BFS.
Imaloto coal platform sale/spin off news.
Afritin production news/ramp up.
Johannesburg listing.
Developing the organisational capacity to align with the Company’s growth.
Continuing simplification of the Bushveld organisational structure for efficient management.

Possible suitors looking to take over/partner with ‘the most significant, lowest cost, vertically integrated vanadium company in the world’??
Etc

An exciting end to H2 coming up!

DYOR of course :)

Seems like the interview has generated some more buying.
It certainly shows how undervalued ATM is at the moment - market cap - £20m.

Thanks Peking, what a great interview!

A few snippets....
'One of the biggest tin deposits in the world.'
'Little capex is required to produce the lithium.'
Production and ramp up is going well.

Dilution is a swear word in our organisation so the company is targeting debt facilities for phase 2 as much as possible.
Targeting $100m of revenue from the tin alone, excluding bi-products (tantalum and lithium)

'Lots of news flow coming up in the near future.'
'We are a management team focused on delivery!'

All sounds great news for shareholders! :)

Alfa, that's right. It was impossible to buy more than 300k at any time this morning.
My cheapest buy was at 3.238p.

Hoovering up the shares at a bargain basement price! :)

An excellent RNS showing not only a very large tin resource, but also huge amounts of tantalum and lithium.
This will transform the economics of the business.

I've had another 2m shares this morning! :)

We've been marked up.
Have they finally run out of shares! :)

1210, possibly. But we've thought that before and the sells never appear.
Also, if that is the case, why do we have the restriction on buying all of the time.

Currently the max buy at 21.5p is just 10,000 shares.
Seems more like tricks to me....

Let's drop the offer to 21.7p and then not let anyone buy any shares.
That will make a market....

Idiots!

Massive buying, can't buy any online now at 22p.
Surely they have to put the offer up!

Great news!
That's a big hurdle out of the way.
Things are moving along very nicely.... :)

That 300,000 sell at 3.35p was in fact a buy.
Also, the 200k at 3.4p was a buy.

There's another 500k delayed buy coming up too :)

The current market cap of £21m seems incredibly cheap on those sort of figures.
It looks like a very exciting period ahead here too...

Excellent figures Alfa.

https://m.miningweekly.com/article/first-tin-concentrate-to-market-q4-afritin-2018-07-30/rep_id:3861

According to this article, Tantalite will make up 10% of the concentrate.

Assuming a Tantalite price of $150,000 per tonne, in my simplistic mind that means 10% of the concentrate will generate revenues of 10% x $150,000 = $15,000 per tonne. This revenue will cover all the concentrate production costs and possibly even the admin expenses, leaving the tin revenue as pure profit.

If so, that gives 780 tonnes at say $16,000 (currently) profit, giving $12.5m profit pa.
That is very impressive for the low production first phase.

Bring on full production of 5,000 tonnes pa!

As the thread will almost certainly be deleted in full, I will say goodnight and repost the following.

From the Q2 Vametco update....

‘H1 2019 Revenue of US$74.3 million (H1 2018: US$81.2 million) and H1 2019 EBITDA of US$48.6 million (H1 2018: US$42.4 million’

These are excellent results so there won’t be any surprises coming in the H1 results.

If you check the 2018 figures, you will see there is little difference between EBITDA and the reported net profits as there is minimal depreciation, no interest and no amortisation!

Corporation tax should be reasonably easy to calculate.
As I say, no surprises.

Max buy at the close was just 5,000 shares with II.
Perhaps we can get off to a flyer tomorrow!