RE: So, what's the answer?21 Dec 2020 15:34
An oil price averaging $50 + in 2021 would be very helpful here for a good number of reasons imho, some of which are:
Strengthening the Nigerian governments balance sheet ( they pay plenty of our invoices and so that's good news for Save.l)
Strengthening the Niger assets development business case
Strengthens the appetite for money to flow back into this sector in sundry ways. eg Better debt interest rates more readily available AND II's and PI's hating this sector sector plenty less in 2021 and 2022 versus 2019 and 2020
Hinders AK's potential ambitions for further large acquisitions...as fewer 'cheap' assets available to buy.. Very good news in my mind as large acquisition would likely mean more debt and/or more dilutuion here imho, neither of which is good against a back drop of II's more and more buying into the view that debt /dilution is a bad thing in a slowly dying fossil fuel world:. As their investment views are often 5 or 10 years out, when the asset values in this sector could easily be 'low/lower'.. so DIVIDENDS - and share buybacks - and fast debt pay down towards higher Nett Asset Values are far more appealing than additional Debt/Dilution for large amounts more oil and gas asset acquisition - there is, after all, FAR more Oil and Gas in the ground/sea than may ever be needed as the World by increment moves greener and greener Aside: The Tobacco industry keeping its shares popular/strong via big dividends is a model that O&G needs to follow MUCH more ASAP imho)
PS: That's not to say that AK shouldn't prudently and incrementaly increase Gas Reserves in our Nigeria business towards meeting- incrementally growing - future demand, but, including good existing reserves,that can be done cheaply imho