RE: Kenya - Tullow compensation bill but no RNS27 May 2020 09:17
The news that Kenya is considering such a huge amount of compensation of $2B is good news and I think is why the sp looks to be going positive today. Buying pressure building.
The UK and most other countries will be almost fully open in another couple of weeks so expect oil to hit $40 at least soon. TLW should be worth around 35p by then.
Looks like researchers have discovered why many are dying from the disease. Low T-cells means weak immune system so should be easier to help recovery if they can boost them.
Once the lockdowns are gone then I think it would be realistic to expect at least a $40-$50 oil price while the OPEC cuts are in place. If demand got to pre-COVID levels then it may well shoot up past $60. Brent is moving up pretty quick as oil inventories have shown a surprise drawdown indicating pickup in demand. TLW could test 26p shortly.
Oil moving is up so a bounce coming imo. Many countries have removed lockdowns as of this week and demand should be shooting up. The API oil inventories showed a suprise drawdown of around -4m barrels which hasn't been factored in yet. The IEA inventory data is due out this afternoon which should show a similar drawdown and that will surely boost POO.
I think traders are cautious since it's the expiry of the June contract this week and the markets may be pumping oil up ready for some fun and games by end of week. The reality of low demand is still here even though some countries are easing lockdowns. The holiday season will not see any recovery this year for sure. POO is not going to suddenly shoot up to $60 anytime soon.
RE: Negative prices again this month ?15 May 2020 12:12
June contract expires next week so speculators will be trying to sell off very soon if not already. POO seems to be dropping after a few days of pumping. Possibly a lot of downwards pressure coming by Monday.
Detached from reality more like. Look back at the sp in Dec/Jan before the POO crash and you will find that it was around 50p when oil was at $60. Simple maths should tell you that when POO is at $30 the sp is worth around 25p. This is why predictions of 50p next week, etc are hot air.
Brent Futures will top out at around $34 if the current rise does keep going. GS and others are expecting oil to stay in the $30 range until Q3. Speculators will take it up and down along the way but no one should be under the illusion that all the demand issues are suddenly gone.