Member Info for NGR1616

Just need to trust the guidance 🙌

If we are to believe that mass adoption in mobiles is happening in 2026 then it’s entirely feasible for pre assembly orders to be placed in 2025 for the CMOS sensor that would require an earlier order of Nanoco materials in 2025 to put into the sensors.

Give it a rest

I’ve made plenty here over the years and my avg just now is close to parity. I’m holding a few hundred k in shares and equal in cash waiting to see what happens post tender.

My motives are to make me money.

Troublesome we’ve been down this cul de sac before. I have one ID and one only and I post only on here. Confuse me with others who post with multiple ids if you want but I’ll report anyone who suggests I’m using multiple ids. Please refrain. I’ve stopped calling you out for the benefit of the others here and would hope you can reciprocate.

The FAB cost will be amortised over x years for depreciation

The FAB and device team alone will have added cost. As for shareholders saying keep the cash….that was my suggestion so there you go! 😉

It’s a direct criticism

I think this PR drive in the middle of a corporate action is crass.

Perhaps your understanding is correct Bonzo and is just a bit further down the development path than my take, however I think in both instances it likely means there is not a device [e.g. AVP] on sale currently as the technology is still being assessed/developed for device integration.

We don't know if any device company has bought any sensors from STM as yet. In fact it's entirely feasible that STM are supplying samples FOC.

If we are to believe guidance, then this development cycle to adoption will attract more interest from more companies ergo more sales/FOC samples and perhaps that's where the growth will come from short term.

Commercially I'd not be surprised if Nanoco are taking some 'risk on' themselves and supplying STM on a malus basis during the development phase but with a bonus contract model both can profit from when the sensors go into volume commercial production.

Would you delay a device until 2028 for 'non-toxic' reasons when you can launch in 25/26 otherwise?

Perhaps Apple would if they thought no one else would be so unscrupulous as to launch a 'toxic' array sooner....

I can only surmise that interim growth is coming from the STM supply agreement of Gen 1 products through 24 and ramping up through 25.

He did say they could end up in (20--50?) different applications so maybe something else is coming in advance of mass market mobile adoption.

Nanonano , is it unreasonable for a company like Apple to demand that "millions of sensors" are tested to understand performance and failure rate as part of their validation process given the end device and reputational implications if there was for example a subsequent high failure rate? Perhaps the sensors can be tested on a wafer basis.....

If you look at slide 12 the 2 materials in commercial production (1 NIR 1 SWIR) at the bottom of the chart have a purple arrow against them which indicates they are “moving to a new phase”. I take that to mean it’s not going into a device at this time.

Frankly I don’t understand why the company is remaining opaque on this. My interpretation now is only now after validation are we providing materials so the downstream supply chain can enter their product development phase (ie CMOS sensors) to subsequently provide to the device company for further validation. Presumably this will follow the same processes to be ready to scale up as we approach a device launch in the back of 25 for mass market adoption in 2026. It’s likely however that beta versions have already been supplied.

As far as Nanoco are concerned, they are in commercial production.

However the sensors they might be in are not themselves in commercial production. Yet.

Slide 12

PbS (Gen1) 2 materials (one NIR one SWIR) in commercial production (from Nanoco perspective) H1 FY24 for low volume application (possibly testing/development)

InAs (Gen 2) 3 materials being optimised over 2 years for two customers with different requirements- target production H1 FY28 (possibly sooner with FAB)

Footnote- potential mass market mobile phone adoption of SWIR in 2026.

BT of the opinion materials are not in a product that is on sale today.

Gen 2 won’t be ready for scale up until 2026 which is after the supposed launch of SWIR enabled mobiles in 2026.

In my opinion Gen 1 materials are only just being supplied for early stage development of the end sensor modules and the volumes of materials are low initially (as guided). They ramp up through 24 and to a break even level in ‘25.

(Gen 2 cannot be contributing earlier than’26 when it’s only just going to be ready for scaling up)

Gen 1 will be ready for production in the hundreds of millions of devices in 2026 in mass market mobiles potentially Apple and others. In my view.

Mobiles in 2026…..

Nanonano; because he prefaced it with "normally we are told when a product has launched"

AVP HAS (undescore) launched and they have not been told. Of course there is scope for in AVP but that means not only have they not been told, but that the order in November would have been processed, deliverered, then processed on receipt to be integrated into a module(s) before being put in the sensor module before going into the device [AVP] that was launching on the same timeframe. In my view that's not at all likely.

He followed up saying the indication is SWIR adoption in mobiles in 2026. The usual process is gradual build of low volume orders towards mass production. This for me aligns with Gen 1 gradual increase in supply through '24 to BE in FY25 and adoption in mobiles in the hundreds of millions of units in 2026.