Member Info for Newuncle

HA HA fing HA. Very funeeeee, ask Chesh

enuf already with the skin care blah blah blah blah, the company knows what it's doing and why. WTF does everyone want to be an expert in what products they should be recommending etc etc. If you are not involved in the business nothing will change after all. And yes I'm bored rigid with it all. I invested to make money not become familiar with all things skin care related. I wonder if the Tesco investors BB is full of people saying whoaaa there Mr Chairman I can buy those garden peas cheaper in LIDL or why are you selling Nivea face creams and not some other brand. We do get a bit too anal on here at times I think, maybe that's down to the lack of price action and RNSs.

cheesh, She's moved again.

Up seems so slooooow yet Down is so veeery veery quick

Normal service has been resumed then, early buy cancelled out immediately by our resident seller. No point trying to guess when the selling will end as they have many many millions from 0.10 give away placing.

At least the seller is allowing buys to go through before they dump now so whilst buys may not be lifting the SP at least the sells are not forcing it further down. Why our seller is so desperate to exit still makes no sense to me.

5m at 17.7 printed. I am guessing it's a sale even though its showing as a buy because no one was getting shares to buy below 17.9 today.

Chesh,

I know I know...been a rubbish last quarter for me. Would be so nice to have really positive to end the year with but struggling to see it at the moment. Feels like DVRG have been rather optimistic in their briefing to TP for that last broker note and 95p target seems an awful long way away right now from 26p.

@7m buys today so far today, MMs remain unmoved as usual. Anyone else expecting to see the seller offloading matching volumes by the close?

Has anyone actually seen this? Xmas is only a month away so orders would have needed to be i by now I would have thought?

STC Xmas Campaign

The Group’s target is the sale of 20,000/month by end-December 2021, with the marketing team focussed on the Christmas gift season as a major advertising feature in early promotion.

True or more BS?

Largely an automated online information and laboratory feedback service that is vended direct to the consumer, the STC is
expected to enjoy high gross margins once reasonable user scale has been achieved. Home test kits are being sold on the basis of either a 2-test plan (providing 3 months of analysis) or a 4-test plan (9 months). Processing 20,000 tests/month therefore requires 5,000 sales/month, given introductory pricing for the STC based on two different formats: One £85 test kit for a ‘Spot Check’ where the user undertakes one test immediately, followed by the second £85 test kit three months after, (total £170) having followed the recommended daily regime (including application of suggested products). Alternatively, ‘Skin Tracker’ is based on a 1-year subscription (at £300) for supply of one home test kit every three months. On this basis, 20,000 STC home test kits/month will generate between £1.5m and £1.7m (or £18m and £20m in a rolling 12 months). The Group’s target is the sale of 20,000/month by end-December 2021, with the marketing team focussed on the Christmas gift season as a major advertising feature in early promotion. Recent expansion of the Group’s York laboratories is available to accommodate anticipated near-term demand.

More fantasy land numbers?

Based on an estimated purchase price of £50,000 for a single Microtox® PD unit, with initial small batch production is considered capable of returning a gross margin of c.50%, the economics stack up well. DeepVerge’s recent AGM presentation cited initial batch build of Version 2 units is due to take place between August and December 2021 with production of 100+ units.

Chesh,

I had peak at it. Reads more like a wish list than anything else at the moment to me.

How can this possibly be true?

"Microtox® PD mass production capability in order to satisfy orders and installations expected in multiple jurisdictions before the end of 2021"

20,000 a month, really, I have my doubts ?

"UK Capacity of 20,000 Home Test Kits/month with full marketing launch supported by Android and iOS
and availability in multiple countries by end of 2021"

Seeming less likely this year with only a month left for 2021 in reality imo

"China Resources – Joint venture negotiations are ongoing, with agreement expected during 2H 2021 followed by high
volume production of licenced Microtox equipment"

Was actually thinking that maybe just maybe we had seen the first signs of recovery here today but no, our resident dumper has just taken another huge dump.

Black Friday Sale Price 59p to buy Monday yesterday
Super Black Friday Deal Today Tuesday just 49p

Words fail me

Are we 100% certain that DVRG will be selling their monitoring kit rather than leasing it, I am just seem to recall that leasing might have been a preferred route for Gerry which of course means alot less income in terms of straight sales from 200 units a month at £50k a pop (or whatever the sale price is per unit...(£50k seems very high to me anyway)...I am pretty sure GB was going to lease or rent the kit over x years to clients and sell the consumables as needed etc to generate recurring revenues and maximum number of units into the field.

Mornin Chesh,

With £3.1m in 1st half we need £6.9m in 2nd half to get to £10m, surely that's weighted enough at 69% for Jly-Dec 21? They would be doing double in each quarter compared to the whole of the first half. Surely more than that just doesn't seem possible as we have not had any material RNS to support that? Personally I get the feeling we may just scrape over the £10m line rather than overshoot it massively?

based on my estimates below, how do people think we can achieve more than £10m for 2021 as my numbers for the 2nd half are quite a stretch on the first half.

I put this up last week as a best guess for the full year 2021.

We know that 1 half delivered £3.1m.

Quarter Revenue Quarter Revenue Growth
Jan-Mar 2020 £500,000.00 Jan-Mar 2021 £1,300,000.00 160%
Apr-Jun 2020 £750,000.00 Apr-Jun 2021 £1,800,000.00 140%
Jly-Sep 2020 £1,250,000.00 Jly-Sep 2021 £3,000,000.00 140%
Oct-Dec 2020 £1,500,000.00 Oct-Dec 2021 £3,900,000.00 160%
Total 2020 £4,000,000.00 Total 2021 £10,000,000.00 150%

Biker,

I know, been an awful couple of months and no signs whatsoever of recovery here or elsewhere. Months of patient investing delivering FA for LTH on AIM in general. MMs have turned very bearish across the board and that has really spooked PIs.

£7m MCAP now.

This market is fast becoming a joke now. How low can the SP go from here, 45p 40p, 35p, 30p, 25p ? Truth is no one knows anymore as MMs continue to knee jerk the price down on any sells regardless of actual volume/value relative to any other measure. I have given up trying to understand how the so called market works here as none of it makes sense these days.

Had the company issued a profit warning or issued an update to say they were raising £xxm via a cheap placing then fair enough but they haven't so its become a case of MMs setting the price against sells using a ridiculous % sells. I am guessing it's @0.08% of shares in issue. Even if they reduce the % drops on selling to 5%, the SP would be close to 40p within @ 5 trading days or 30p levels within 10 trading days. The doomsters may well have called this right if it goes to 30p and an MCAP of @£4m. It's the same old thing with just about every share on AIM, without newsflow or with any concerns about more fund raising people vote with their feet and MMs are only too eager to help them on their way.