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"All have the potential to rise from current levels.."

So has Mr Pecker, although I'm not holding out much hope for him either !!

Pick of the bunch is HBR for obvious reasons, the others, little hope of regaining real traction this side of 2028. SQZ will need something special, only if Mercuria plays ball that is. Remember LTIP's set in May must be at least equal to 500p during the 180 day period to vest, so there is always hope.

Lets see how they sell it during the Analyst call in a few days.

PS Hope Mitch has to give up rights to all un-vested LTIP's now but some how I doubt it !

aimo & dyor

Almost completed 61.8% retrace from high .... :-(

"Where has all the cash gone and will they be able to maintain the div?"

HMRC, though I'm sure those wonderful tax losses from TW deal help immensely.

If they don't hold dividend yet another promise broken.

Mitch managed to destroy Circle under his leadership, gone along way to doing the same here.

aimo & dyor

"retrospective ‘proper’ windfall tax which will be backdated...."

Not a chance of 'backdating' imo, legal challenge will, for sure follow as I know of no example of the gov being able to do this. If by some minute chance it occurs then ALL UK companies are now at risk and if not already so will make the UK totally un-investable. The fallout of such a move would bankrupt firms overnight not to mention the knock-on effect.

aimo & dyor

Well, only less than 10 months to wait until Mercuria could take the lot. They could offer ~260p/s costing them net ~£720m (~£6.50bboe) for ~110mmboe reserves (excluding Buchan and our improved 2P's )throwing in whatever cash we have on hand plus all those $billions$ of tax losses too. By then all the heavy lifting on improving production will be well underway and Mercuria could sit back and congratulate themselves on a job well done, watch the cash roll in.

The next acquisition and appointment of CEO, will, for me be critical to assess Mercuria's future intentions .

aimo & dyor

"As for harbour they're only down just over one percent.."

HBR Down ~30% since RNS peak. As for SQZ now oversold today too !

QC, shorters having a field-day with HBR and SQZ atm,

For Mercuria ...... !

The sales pitch contained within the official Circular for the TW deal stated :

"The Acquisition supports a new growth phase for Serica"

and

"The Acquisition is expected to be strongly accretive on a per share basis from Completion"

Failed so far on both accounts.

aimo & dyor

Should of read just 'debt acquired'

Net debt acquired from TW deal has been reduced by an unbelievable £5m from time of acquisition, typical MO for PE, max out debt and suck the cash out. SQZ prior to TW deal was debt free and as BB stated had at 30th June 22 they £420m in cash.

Now for understatement of the day, 'SQZ really need to up their game' and fast.

aimo & dyor

"Nothing too shabby about today's update..." other than another £14m added to the cost of our TW deal !

Production range is wide, as always at start of year, this will narrow and should in theory move to the upper side if not exceed stated range as the year progresses.

Borrowing is borderline for the hedging requirement on the new facility, hopefully it at the lower end.

How have we paid so much tax given the promise of the much shouted about tax losses from TW. Details on how much we have used and/or remaining would of been helpful to gauge this.

aimo & dyor

Concerted effort to drive SP down in last 30 minutes of trading.... full on manipulation imo

QC, thanks for your thoughts, think we are roughly on the same page.

You get the feeling that a deal is close and a few city 'anchors' are ahead of the game and don't want to get caught out aka Wintershall style HBR deal.

I might be wrong, but did MF get an ultimatum, step back and you can keep a role with us .... MF didn't like that and either walked or pushed. Guess he didn't want to work for the new CEO.

aimo & dyor

Of course there is always the possibility, He's A Very Naughty Boy, and certainly not the Messiah.

https://youtu.be/0zsclkblxr8?si=E1_ZcksJVUAp_Zji

Market (shorters) certainly making the most of this event, even though I would have thought long term it will be better for the company, particularly if AA moves in .. :-(

aimo & dyor

Upomega,

"So if bad news is due what could it be....."

Think it has all the hallmarks of the opposite imo. There was obviously an 'urgent' reason for MF immediate departure as CEO, my guess is a deal is to be done very soon. Can not believe for one moment it's anything to do with forthcoming ops update.

Sasa, Mercuria would have been fully aware of AA's ability and I would have thought AA being financially adept and a real deal-maker that would fit nicely with Mercuira's ambitions. Remember AA's approach for SQZ was right in the middle of SQZ pre deal negotiations with Tailwind, so AA skill set was clear to see for all.

PS Foothold in Norway, now who do we know that could provide that ?

aimo & dyor

So that's all the old guard ..... ACW / AB / MF.

Hasn't taken Mercuria long, has it, less than 12 months !

Mommur,

Yep, AA's welcome mat is being prepared as we speak (hopefully)

aimo & dyor

We all knew this was coming (probably except MF himself), moved aside before he was pushed, Mercuria's Trojan horse is off and running.

Hope he looks back at his decision in Dec 2022 and thinks long and hard about whether it was the correct one, 27% of the votes thought not !

aimo & dyor

DK2020,

" reporter doesn't say much.."

Actually, I would go as far as saying he has gone out of his way to paint an awful picture of HBR, so ask yourself, why !

No mention of our recent mega deal (by far the most significant near term event), plus he uses assumed gas forecast in 3 years, 3 years ffs to down grade to a sell, no mention of oil or our zero debt or as of Jan our pretty good hedging or indeed used the same rationale for ANY other gas centric players, just good old HBR.

Also in the light of above, he went from BUY to SELL, not even HOLD (neutral), unreal, absolute joke but it had his (GS) desired effect !!

GS are dirt bags for sure and that's putting it mildly .

aimo & dyor

Sorry , 3 years time forecast 🤔