Member Info for NewKOTB

With our 2018 Operating profits of $9m anyone who thinks this will not blown out of the water for 2019 is off their rocker imo.

As a very rough estimate I would say that x10 or 1000% increase is not unrealistic for 2019 figures imo

"In 2019 market prices have been weaker; YTD oil prices have averaged ~ USD$65.00/bbl and gas prices ~40p/therm."

So hedging combined with synergies, performance enhancement and lower capex still we add over $11m per month.

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/presentations/Serica-AGM-Presentation.pdf

Excellent reading, NI you should have a look ...... plenty of pictures

I fully expect profits to be UP on 2018.

No, quite normal as all platforms shutdown at some stage during the summer for maintenance, hence will lower the monthly average for the year. Nothing to worry about at all.

Please do not reply via his thread as is only continues to propagate his negative messages. Start a new thread if you must reply .... he also gets paid by the responses to his thread.

He's working for a pro outfit , you just have to spend five minute reading the cynicism, hopelessness and despair that is churned out time after time on various shares. Correlate that with the SP action and you have your answer.

SQZ is a great company with fabulous prospects otherwise he would not be here.... end of !!

You just have to follow the 'A' trades to see the real interest in SQZ.

Have a great evening all.

atb

Piddle volume today again ......

"think we're likely to hear anything from the AGM?..."

Other than resolutions proposed are all passed and an ops update posted as a presentation on the website I would think.

Reports of biscuits on offer for attendees would be 'nice' to know.

sasa43,

The none operator could be a blessing should the deal mirror BKR, if that's all we need to miss out on in order to progress with the deal !! Yes, SQZ said that we will only look at deals which involves being the operator, but it all about getting the most out of an aging asset and I don't think we would be ready to take on a project the size of Shearwater right now. Gift horse and all that ! Just Keep Shell as operator imo

Why, Shearwater\ BKR would allow us guaranteed cash\revenue growth YoY for the next 5 years with the cash pile growing substantially we could afford another deal very easily this year. Snowball effect of scaling our revenue from cash generative assets from the off. We could even take on debt for a really massive bargain, although I think staying debt free is easily my preferred option in these turbulent Trump times.

This next deal is going to be soooooo exciting for the future of the company.

gla

".I predict a TO within 12 months...."

My money is within 3 months imo

This would zip past 200p in a flash should a deal be made on Shearwater akin to BKR

Stupidly low volume yesterday and today .... just image what would happen to the SP with the shares in demand on such a deal. Massive gap up in the first instance.

sasa43,

Agree fully. Bargains are sure to surface in todays climate.

SQZ unlike numerous other NS Oilies, have a firm, sound and very robust financial position regardless of lower therm prices. The companies in trouble are those with no scale, high OpEx, significant debt, poor hedging, these are the ones that will be significantly concerned unlike SQZ .....with

NO DEBT
HIGH CASH POSITION
NO SIGNIFICANT CAPEX
NO BONDHOLDERS
HEDGED 60% AT 35p/therm
SCALE SYNERGIES etc etc

BP's share of the Shearwater would be a peach of a deal ..... and probably a front runner given the recent events around Shell/Shearwater !!!

gla

D220,

"Could come at any time. Short if you want to lose your shirt!..."

Totally agree ...

gla

Oh, forgot to say, hope you enjoyed your 10 days holiday, we certainly did !

As mentioned we have 60% of BKR hedged at 35p/therm for 2019, that's +40% on today's spot.

Mitch is looking for a deal that will double the companies production ..... one I expect, and the market no doubt expect SQZ to land at anytime.

gla

Now our 'friend' has had his fill over on BIDS board, he pop's in here with more wisdom. Note the correlation between him arriving and the SP, tells you all you need to know imo.

With our BKR deal and production from Erskine, SQZ are adding approximately $10m net per month to our bank balance ... which is amazing given where SQZ were at 18 months ago.

Massive plus is we have no CapEx to speak of for 2019 .... just building our cash pile with ever increasing % of BKR YoY

So we have ...

60% of BKR hedged at 35p/therm.
Brent up +20% on year.
BKR Production up 20% since deal completion
.
Share of production up +20% since Jan 2019
Erskine back online and producing at 600% up on 2018 monthly average (+3100boepd).
Tax pool of > $139m
Cash on hand est >$125m and growing daily at an amazing rate.
NO Debt
NO Bondholders
2P at >68mmboe

also ....

Financial liabilities due to the deferred structure of the BKR deal, to be paid from receivables leaving a net positive cash flow over the NEXT 3 YEARS. Note, the payment is from receivables so no risk at all is attached to the deal in real terms. Please remember we have no debt, no bondholders and no real CapEx for 2019. So we only need to buy tea and biscuits for the boardroom.

BKR Deal Structured to mitigate financial risk:

o Bulk of consideration deferred and contingent (ie our liabilities)
o Future payments linked to the performance of the BKR Assets, allowing both parties to share the benefits of improving field recoveries and production efficiencies
o The BKR Assets are predominantly gas assets. Gas sales arrangements include price hedging to further mitigate risk

Not to mention that we could end up with all our BKR liabilities reduced to zero. If by some small chance gas prices continue to fall, BP will PAY SQZ !!!!! That's how good a deal BKR really is ......

Extract from BKR deal document:

"No amounts are payable by Serica UK unless this cash flow is positive and amounts are repayable to Serica UK in the event of negative cash flow, up to the amount of prior payments made to BP in the same year."

For details on this please see p99 point 22

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/reports/2018-16-April-FINAL-ANNUAL-REPORT-AND-ACCOUNTS.pdf.

Also we are expecting another massive deal to land at any moment.

Have a good evening all.

Manufactured Drop today ...... fell 4p on a £2521 sell 'o' trade mid-day .... then kept low all day.

imo

Wowww, massive jump up on close, from 0.5p to 3.6p.

Appears shares are in demand.

When I say out of the blue, I meant there was no leak and hence the SP racing away ..... the deal certainly surprised me, that's for sure.

Be interesting how the SP reacts in the coming weeks.

gla

D220

"Would be nice to have it all tied up before the AGM on the 27th! Maybe too optimistic!..."

Depends if the talks were exclusive, if not then multiple negotiations would most likely be taking place, hopefully SQZ being one of them.

The BKR deal was totally out of the blue and caught the market off guard, don't think we will be as lucky with this one.

aimo

Yep,

That's what I was inferring too. With Mitch also wanting to get a major deal under his belt, I don't think this one will be long until the ink is dry and by the markets reaction with this morning auction (appox 5 minutes) they think so too.

Just need to be careful as to why Shell didn't complete and also I'm unable to find atm the stated 2P's for Shearwater

Shearwater
"The Shell-operated Shearwater field (BP ownership share 28%) is a high-pressure, high-temperature gas condensate field located in the Central North Sea. Shearwater was brought online in 2000 and has been developed through two fixed platforms. Shearwater remains among the biggest producing fields in the North Sea and is anticipated to continue operating into the 2020s"

Forgot to add, should we finance it the same way as BKR we would still have cash to go searching for further deals, that Mitch may be working on too.