Member Info for NewKOTB

Upomega,

One of several things would happen before then imo ..... we either merge or get taken over. Less likely is we do a deal with another acquisition from BP on same / similar terms to BKR protecting any downside.

aimo

aimo

So the next piece in the puzzle I anticipated is looking more likely now after the Houthi attack.

"A pair of oil state Republican senators have introduced legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia, which is increasingly coming under congressional fire over the longtime Middle Eastern ally's oil price war with Russia..."

The middle east, by the summer, will slowly become a battle zone if SA does not pull back from this oil war imo.

Trump will not let anyone get one over on him ... let alone a 'foreigner' .

Guess, once all the US storage facilities are full with super cheap oil, then Trump will act ... so only days if not hours away maybe.

The reference was to the BKR PSA with BP .... so yes, SQZ from this agreement would mean that SQZ would not loose money. This agreement does however only last until end of H1 2020.

Add-in their improved hedging for Q2 and without doing the calculations, I can not see a situation where SQZ will be running at a loss during H1 aimo .

afaik, >3% is notifiable within 2 days to i3e and 3 days to the market via DTR5 and TR-1.

SQZ in production terms during Q2 2019 Rhum was the third largest gas field on the UKCS .... so if SQZ get into trouble, then there is no hope for the smaller players imo.

Must be close for large proportion of industry to start shutting down production and furlough staff.....cutting capex to nil if needed.

The Saudi's should be cut loose from all military aid and sanctions on military sales from US, UK imo.

Our government needs to act otherwise our energy security, as it is, will be under pressure and may never recover. Forever beholden to Russia, US and SA.

On the plus side, SQZ are still making a profit with our hedges in places, these will improve even further in Q2.

Agree,

"so i wrote that in my opinion they would go for this deal only if they were to know they gonna make a good farm out deal...."

i3e will be looking to add strength to their negotiating position with this deal on farmout / sale imo ..... even if they improve the offer in terms of what the capital outlay for Toscana was .... its a win, win afaic. Somehow, I now think return on this strategic move will be paying dividends far in excess of our outlay as we write.

PS ..... As for SP movement last week .... our ship did in deed have many holes.

The +ve cash-flow this deal generates will allow i3e to negotiate from a much stronger position on sale of our major assets.

Why have we not had an RNS for our Change of Company Secretary to say that OHS Secretaries Ltd are now working for us ! !

Well, that didn't take long ...... I mentioned yesterday about the Houthi rebels.

"Two civilians 'slightly injured' from falling missile debris, officials say, blaming attack on Yemen's Houthi rebels..."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/rockets-intercepted-saudi-capital-riyadh-jazan-report-200328212702883.html

So they had drones 6 months ago ... now missiles. How long before the US start to withdraw their Patriot missile defense systems, you could just see it coming. Trump giving them one chance to sort POO ...... lol

"Trump, if things are not going his way will start a proxy war with SA, Trump may even at this very moment be arming the Houthi !! He will also make it clear about either economical sanctions and/or by withdrawing Military support if SA don't play ball."

Well, that didn't take long ...... I mentioned yesterday about the Houthi rebels.

"Two civilians 'slightly injured' from falling missile debris, officials say, blaming attack on Yemen's Houthi rebels..."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/rockets-intercepted-saudi-capital-riyadh-jazan-report-200328212702883.html

So they had drones 6 months ago ... now missiles. How long before the US start to withdraw their Patriot missile defense systems, you could just see it coming. Trump giving them one chance to sort POO ...... lol

"Trump, if things are not going his way will start a proxy war with SA, Trump may even at this very moment be arming the Houthi !! He will also make it clear about either economical sanctions or by withdrawing Military support if SA don't play ball."

Should SQZ reduce their output so that just covers 24% of full gas production to take full advantage of the amount we have hedged at 40.8p/therm plus, of course the BKR PSA at 35p/therm hedge.

Pointless producing whilst Nat Gas is priced as low as it is atm. Would have thought SQZ may well be actively looking at this after this weeks falls to see how the figures work out against impact on conserving reserves.

With hedges + std gas therm prices SQZ are still making a good profit at full production.

With hedges production alone, will lower revenue but increase, (probably), profitability, plus conserve reserves.

Number cruncher are you ready, calculator ready ......

Sorry, forgot to add don't see it being an easy ride for Aramco either tbh, hate to think what 2020 half year results will look like with POO crushed .... they now have shareholders to keep happy don't forget, something new for them !!!

"Net income was US$88.2 billion for the full-year 2019, compared to US$111.1 billion in 2018. The decrease was primarily due to lower crude oil prices and production volumes, coupled with declining refining and chemical margins"

Certainly will be a period of consolidation .... don't think the US will allow their industry to fold as national security of the US would be compromised.... the UK however, are a little stupid in that respects.

So Russia's attempt to crush shale will not work .... yes there will be 'disruption' as firms file for bankruptcy only to surface again under another disguise or when POO increase once more. Government backed national O&G will step in if needed or gov bonds ... Trump will not let the US be dependent upon imports .... yes they need imports for blending atm, buts that's all.

Trump, if things are not going his way will start a proxy war with SA, Trump may even at this very moment be arming the Houthi !! He will also make it clear about either economical sanctions or by withdrawing Military support if SA don't play ball.

The young princes AbS and MbS after between them ousting the former energy minister and head of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih last September within 4 months have managed to destroy the POO, OPEC+ and possibly push their Kingdom onto the verge of social unrest and possible fall House Of Saud ... well done, great first few months. Wonder how his 6 months review went with his father King Salman.

Agree, nominal maiden dividend of 1-1.5p (£2.6m - £3.9m) would be my estimate and justified in current situation. That way, it is seen to be sustainable, which is what SQZ quoted as wanting ..... plus if things turn for the better, then there is always scope for a 'special dividend'. One thing I'm convinced of is that SQZ will issue their first dividend and it will not be cancelled imo

Think governments around the world have seen covid-19 as a get out of jail card imo in terms of national debt. The virus is real, no doubts about that and lives need to be saved .... just is as much money needed to be thrown at it so early so quickly . Markets didn't really flinch with all the billions / trillions given away, so they think cash / QE is not the answer either atm.

So, you are throwing shed loads of cash at covid-19 .... then 24-36 months later say that the packages put in place to fight the virus have now crippled our economies with national debt at record highs that will never be paid off ... So only answer, lets just devalue the pound (world currencies), job done..... debt can now be paid off and economy reset .... banks would probably need to be nationalized first however, but that will happen before devaluation as the business / mortgage defaults roll-in.

When gold goes mental, that will be the signal imo ..... gold atm has been on the whole a little subdued given whats been happening, guess countries who are to devalue want to increase their reserves whilst others are selling.

aimo of course.

Something has to give ... Louisiana Light down 20% today, at $15.80 off from $49 on 5th March ... 3 weeks ago !!!

UPOMEGA,

Remember, pond life needs oxygen .... just don't give it by using the thread header.

Q2 for SQZ will be strong in terms of revenue due to our hedges and swaps in place regardless of how low gas prices fall in this period.

Trump will not like that ..... deal with SA looks more likely now imo

"They called on Saudi Arabia to quit OPEC, reverse its policy of high output, partner with the United States in strategic energy projects or face consequences..."