Member Info for NewKOTB

btw, SP of 235p would mean >68% of MCap held in cash and equivalents for a company with ZERO debt and currently adding ~£42m per month FCF would attract a mass of buyers and probable attention of a suitor, unfortunately several lowlife traders too.

aimo & dyor

Trades over £50k

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-05-11T09:33:46.427 GBX 311.5 200000 £623000 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-11T12:46:10.587 GBX 310.5 128441 398809.305 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-11T15:35:05.570 GBX 306 108429 331792.74 UT AIMX P
2022-05-11T07:59:56.867 GBX 315 95000 299250 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-11T16:56:47.000 GBX 312.573 50039 156408.4035 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-05-11T17:23:10.000 GBX 306.337 42462 130076.8169 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-05-11T09:19:20.000 GBX 311.71 32080 99996.568 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-11T15:10:08.483 GBX 304.96 32788 99990.2848 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-11T07:42:29.593 GBX 317 30000 95100 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-11T07:54:57.177 GBX 315 25000 78750 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-11T15:41:27.993 GBX 310.374 21648 67189.76352 Off-Book XOFF TNCP ECHO
2022-05-11T07:59:45.973 GBX 315 20675 65126.25 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-11T10:40:11.007 GBX 310.784 20000 62156.8 Off-Book AIMX PRIC P AIMX

Volume 2.2m

btw, GamblingAnalyst are we suppose to care what you trade ... I for one certainly don't.

Yep, 86% of all trades today were AT's... just a normal day for SQZ, yet apparently SQZ see no problem here!

Hello to GS ..... so we possibly know where some of the BP's shares went now and for recent weakness too with others appearing to reduce..... still significant amount of BP shares unaccounted for though imo.

Changes :

Figures in ( ) are previous notification :

Mr D Hardy & Mrs D Hardy 28,346,928 10.43% (unchanged)
AXA Framlington Investment Managers** 16,934,065 6.23% (9.77%)
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management* 11,345,335 4.17% (5.11%)
Goldman Sachs 10,696,879 3.94% (new entry)
JPMorgan Asset Management 9,994,848 3.68% (3.55%)
Janus Henderson Investors 9,778,872 3.60% (3.84%)
BlackRock 9,265,778 3.40% (unchanged)
Interactive Investor 9,110,771 3.35% (3.84%)
Serica Energy plc Director & Related Holdings 7,606,645 2.80% (2.90%)

Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management* 9,267,500 no longer shown (3.41%)

As at 9 May 2022, the Company had 271,781,535 (271,740,474) ordinary shares in issue of which 13.23% (13.34%) is not held in public hands.

Yes Maverick, noticed i3 too .... one i3 poster quoted "Minimum dividend yield 5.4%.." not sure if its accurate or not, either way, both HBR and i3 are paying significantly above SQZ dividend yield.
Hope ACW et al are watching these and decide to act, not by using our cash for buybacks but should return cash to shareholders. With inflation expected to rise further still, it does make a mockery of our announced 2.3% yield (2.94% at current depressed SP) . Think BP's current yield 21/22 is 4.38% and Shell 3.53%.

aimo & dyor

Impact of a successful drill at NE should not be underestimated, even if Mitch wasn't that, shall we say, 'overly enthusiastic' about it during recent interview ..... In fact, I would say he was underplaying it.

Given projected NBP/Brent for remainder of 2022, I have an estimated conservative worth for SQZ come 31/12/22 of ~£1.5bn (552p/s) based on remaining reserves and CoH, excluding all other assets.

Should N Eigg come in at ~60mmboe, even at a conservative £5 boe would instantly enhance our net worth to £1.8bn (~£6.60p/s). Now if we use North Sea metric of ~£15boe for est 110mmboe 2P's valuation gets noticeably magnified..... now looking at £2.4bn (885p/s) you could then also add de-risked p50 of ~40mmboe for S Eigg at £3 boe giving valuation of £2.52bn (926p/s) .... So as you see, SQZ have a lot riding on this summers Eigg drill.

Upshot being t/o valuation should be between ~550p to ~660p/s prior to N Eigg drill.... post commercial discovery this would change to ~885p to ~926p.... Are SQZ feeling lucky !!

aimo & dyor

..... then again, SQZ itself I would class as an opportunity for a "meaningful value accretive transactions"

Interesting HBR are looking to approve a dividend of 8.4505 pence per share ($100m) on a SP of ~450p .... So we are not doing too bad at 9p/s ... although Harbour are carrying significant debt $1.7bn and decommissioning liabilities..... but then wait a minute .... HBR are also intending to pay another $100m in dividends later too, so that's 3.8% pa @ 450p .... now SQZ look like scrooges at 2.3% pa @390p .

I do like this from their update : "At $100/bbl and 200p/therm average prices for 2022, Harbour continues to expect to generate between $1.5 and $1.7 billion of free cash flow (after tax and the $200 million dividend payment) with the potential to be net debt free in 2023. As a result, we have significant optionality over our future capital allocation, including for meaningful value accretive transactions and additional shareholder returns...."

"including for meaningful value accretive transactions and additional shareholder returns........", hummmm pity SQZ didn't include a quote like that too. Esp as we are DEBT FREE and have very limited decomm liabilities .

aimo & dyor

From poster on other BB ..... lets see how TTF and NBP react to this news, atm it appears there is a temp workaround, but for how long ! : NBP closed up on this news +10.7% (142p/therm)

Interfax Ukraine forced to suspend gas transit through GMS Sokhranivka due to actions of Russian occupiers from May 11 – GTSOU Starting from 07:00 on May 11, 2022, the offtake of gas to the gas transmission system (GTS) of Ukraine will not be conducted at the gas measuring station (GMS) Sokhranivka as a result of Ukraine's loss of control over GTS facilities in the occupied territories and illegal actions Russian occupiers, according to a press release from Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) on Tuesday. "Gas TSO of Ukraine (GTSOU) reports the occurrence of force majeure, which makes it impossible to further transport gas through the GMS Sokhranivka and the border compressor station (CS) Novopskov, which are located in the occupied territories," the company said in the press release. As reported, the Novopskov compressor station is the first of the compressor stations of the Ukrainian GTS in Luhansk region, through which almost a third of gas (up to 32.6 million cubic meters per day) is transited from Russia to Europe. "Currently, GTSOU cannot carry out operational and technological control over the CS Novopskov and other assets located in these territories. Moreover, the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes and changes in the modes of operation of GTS facilities, including unauthorized gas offtakes from the gas transit flows, endangered the stability and safety of the entire Ukrainian gas transportation system," GTSOU said As the company said, these actions under the current transit contract are force majeure circumstances that make it impossible to fulfill obligations at the physical interconnection point GMS Sokhranivka and at the border compressor station Novopskov, which are not currently controlled by GTSOU. "To fulfill its transit obligations to European partners in full and following the terms of the agreement, it is possible to temporarily transfer unavailable capacity from the Sokhranivka physical interconnection point to the Sudzha physical interconnection point located in the territory controlled by Ukraine," the company said. As the OGTSU said, the company repeatedly informed Gazprom about gas transit threats due to the actions of the Russian-controlled occupation forces and stressed stopping interference in the operation of the facilities, but these appeals were ignored.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/831178-amp.html?espv=1

So we are sitting on around ~£392m or around 46% of our MCap.

Given current Q2 average of NBP/Brent we are looking at adding, post Opex/Admin/SBC/Divi/Capex ~£1.4m per day (~£42m per month) to our cash hoard.

What shall we do with all of this cash, give it to shareholders, nah .... make an acquisition, no sir-ree, not done so in almost 5 years .... pay off our debt, no way Jose, as we don't have any ... do a share buyback, hummm, why not as it makes the board look like they are doing something with our cash and also, importantly protects their LTIP's and other free share awards.

Let's see how much of our cash the Remuneration Committee want to 'award' this year. 2021 Mitch received annual salary inc bonus / benefits & pension (excluding the very healthy LTIP/CSOP/DSA's & Option Plans) of £865,022....(2020 £520,522) Not sure what has warranted ~£345,000 pay increase tbh.

Sorry for my bit of a moan, but SQZ (our BoD) who we pay handsomely have failed imo to add real value through an accretive acquisition since BKR. How long will this be allowed to continue or are we about to extract a big fat rabbit out of a very well camouflaged hat ?

aimo & dyor

HBLU,

Yep, multi Avatar that has been banned over and over, the sooner it trades its profit and moves on the better for all.

"Chariot is worth less than a ghastly mugshot painting of Marilyn Monroe!..."

lol .... yep, all about context.

Market is making the most of current situation .... a lot is riding on the CPR imo, it will not disappoint imo.

aimo & dyor

CT,

Fair enough,

Have a good evening.

CT

Not getting into a posting game, but needless to say, as a UK Stock, SQZ has fallen disproportionately esp after Friday too ... You are clearly a pro trader ... leave it as that shall we. However, should you feel the need to reply, I would be interested in what positives you see in SQZ.
atb

.... Friday's dismal day too

We shall see .... Mr Market had a clear influence today .... but that is not the whole story imo.

Lets see who bounces and where that leaves SQZ.

Sector down just 4% TODAY, SQZ >11% .... with SQZ third worst performer, this follows yesterday's dismal day too.

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/sectors/fossil-fuels/

AIMO & DYOR

Mommur,

Hope you are well,

As the RNS explicitly states , 'sold' and "proceeds of approximately £49.3 million" , think we can safely assume that there are major holders atm who are not too happy with current SP after they had already 'managed' ~7% discount to prevailing SP ... they are now down ~18% in under a week .... unless of course the new owners wanted them for a specific reason at any cost ...!!!
Remember, NBP had already fallen significantly and the market was already aware of the disconnect with TTF vs NBP at the time of BP's RNS, yet they still deemed 365p a L’Oreal styled bargain (Because You’re Worth It) !!!

"Further to the announcement released on 27 April 2022, BP Exploration Operating Company Limited ("BP Exploration") announces that it has sold its entire shareholding in the Company, being 13.5m ordinary shares (the "Placing Shares"), by way of an accelerated bookbuild (the "Placing"). The Placing price was 365 pence per Placing Share, raising gross proceeds of approximately £49.3 million.."

As for no TR-1 RNS, of course a none UK buyer, as an overseas registered company you can hold up to 5% without TR-1 ... BP at time of sale sold just under 5% of SQZ's share capital ... also we could of easily had multiple buyer too with resultant holding being below the 3% notification too .... For sure, SQZ would not be sat at 300p today if an RNS TR-1 hit informing the market of a single buyer or even two or three for that matter.

aimo & dyor

All the hallmarks of accelerated drop due to leaked corporate action, hence bear attack.

So why is the SP falling and so rapidly .... well, once a share climbs as SQZ has done over the last six months, shorting becomes an un-resistible attraction to the major players .... they will need to closeout ~7% before the SP boom's and they get fired !! Also longs will want to be opened at best possible price too ... expect more merry games.

My guess is, SQZ are possibly about to show their hand on that long, long awaited deal.

or could just be the market taking the one opportunity to make a fast buck or two and closeout shorts with current NBP weakness as their cover. Over 2300 BoT trades today too, ~80%

Either way, the market will want to play NE drill too, so return to ~400p during H2 or before would not be unexpected imo, at which point our cash hoard will be massive, underpinning our valuation.

Of course any corporate announcement and 400p may well never be seen again.

aimo & dyor

PS Around half of my orders hit today, rest probably tomorrow ... if needed, more will be placed too.

PPS Will run some figures tomorrow when back.

atb

Chinch,

Regarding the well cost, SQZ has quoted NE at ~£45m for single well drill (as planned for H2), the ~£100m is for a TWO well campaign, should the second drill ever be required at a later date.

atb

NBP is not the main driver here afaic