RE: Watch...17 May 2022 12:38
OK GA lets investigate a little further :
Firstly, BP did 'exit' but this was via a bookbuild at 365p, circa 7% discount to prevailing SP completed in under 24 hours, NO SHARES were ever placed on open market so would not have impacted on the SP per se.
Second fwiw, I see BP exiting as a positive given they held ~5% who knows what deal may be waiting in the wings that may also necessitated BP exit .... could be SQZ offer BP say 10% as part payment for Andrew or ano field/s or cutting all ties and combined with ending of BKR final payments allows SQZ to move in whichever direction it wants. Either way dropping the SP ~30% on a 5% exit for which all shares were 'transferred' was unwarranted.
Thirdly, TR-1's do not have to issued unless the respective thresholds have be crossed ... be it 3%, 5% etc depending on country of registration. For me, it does however leave the question ... 'To whom did ~5% go to on the bookbuild ?' did GS take some maybe !
Fourthly, NBP did moved down, but if you track other primary gas plays, they didn't move half as much as we did.
Fifthly, shorters are / have needed to close out (main driver imo) ... should N Eigg come in then shirts would be lost ... they took the BP opportunity and temp weakening of NBP to drive down the SP and close out using the gap too as traders seen this and aided the fall. Probably their last opportunity given progressive cash build between now and Sept of additional ~£200m .... you could see that with most days following BP transfer the AT's were elevated at >/~85% of trades in order to manipulated the stock.
Finally .... given we reached a CoH to MCap of ~60% held in cash and equivalents at bottom of fall, with a company having ZERO debt and positive cash build of £millions£ daily, then yes the fall was.....
TOTALLY and UTTERLY UNWARRANTED.... then again, that's AIM for you.
aimo & dyor
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