Member Info for NewKOTB

Just emailed my MP and let him have both barrels about this ridiculous levy, hope other do so too. Could even influence the confidence vote !!

aimo

Direct link :

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1533764462309777409?s=20&t=1BBVvu2ClzbYPNZ8hqWsMw

"SQZ has a market cap of GBP 757m & net cash of GBP 396m by end of May. It has no debt & limited decommissioning liabilities. With an EV of GBP 388m it likely generates >150m FCF for rest of year (Jun-Dec) with 60m reserves left. The sell-off due to windfall taxes made it cheap...."

https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1533764462309777409

Tell us something that investors who have done their homework don't already know .... if investors have done this basic math then I'm sure other 'interested' parties have done so too.

aimo & dyor

"Moreover, we are evaluating additional candidate projects designed to increase the productivity of the Bruce hub....."

So to me that reads an increase the processing flow balancing capacity for the feeds from Bruce / Rhum & will will have the ability to add up to, imo, ~5kboepd (~17% increase in production). It was evident during Rhum downtime that SQZ Bruce platform was the 'bottleneck' as the fields, esp Bruce are able under natural flow to produce significantly more .... lets get it done and claim the cash back via the levy tax relief. Given we are also doing work-overs for several Bruce wells it is a must to resolve this issue, otherwise the benefits of these work-overs will not be fully achieved.

aimo & dyor

So there we have it ~60% of MCap in CASH & EQUIVALENTS .... plus ZERO DEBT too.

North Sea oil and gas sector jeopardised by windfall tax warns Investec.....

The windfall tax will have a long-term impact on the North Sea oil and gas sector, and could accelerate the decline of the domestic fossil fuel industry, argued Investec.

The wealth manager warned that the new levy could incentivise operators to bring forward decommissioning plans, potentially raising the UK’s dependence on overseas imports to meet its energy needs.

While Downing Street has sought to further exploration in a declining sector of the UK’s energy industry, hosting roundtables with industry leaders and including oil and gas in its supply security strategy, Investec believes its latest proposals will undermine its ambitions.

https://www.cityam.com/north-sea-oil-and-gas-sector-jeopardised-by-windfall-tax-warns-investec/

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As investors of NS O&G we all know what an absolute mess Rishi has made for his own personal Political ambitions.
I'm sure we will see many fields that were marginal at 40% tax now be fast-tracked to decomm .... I would doubt many if any of these marginal one's would be sold as no one would want to take them on imo.

aimo & dyor

Following the announced tax, Investec has lowered its valuation of Harbour Energy from 635p to 580p, and Serica Energy from 515p to 395p, while downgrading smaller operators such as IOG TP from 70p to 50p and IGas from 50p to 45p.

I do like the number 480 .... that would workout at a lovely ~£15boe ... just saying.

Trying to sort out the pond today, can't see anything through all the murk .... bit like holding SQZ atm.

aimo & dyor

... "RRE's deal with Viaro"....

NMJ,

I suggest, you will find it helpful to read last few RNS / Presentations that will get you up to speed on SQZ.

For example, SQZ do not yet have the authority to acquire their owns shares .... atm !

Authority already gained to issue up to an additional 10% without AGM/EGM approval but not to acquire their own.

I do agree that given amount of shares traded in recent months (excluding BP/AXA ones) that cricket is not their first choice of field sport for the buyer/s.

We have had ~36% of SQZ company shares (98m) traded over the last 7 weeks .... as you say, that is not your normal PI's activity.

Monthly volume has been climbing substantially virtually month on month since Nov 2021. We also know that deals take time to complete and the market always finds away in via the backdoor. KIST's deal with Viaro was agreed in principle and worked upon for just over six months before RNS to the market. Just saying that you never know as PI's what is happening behind NDA's

aimo & dyor

We are now in a position where ~10% of shares (~27m) have been sold by two holders, BP ~5%, AXA ~5% in a month.

Who holds them now !!

"Another deal done - when’s our turn?...."

Remind me, how many times have we asked that question !

Although this is a true merger rather than t/o, economic environment that Rishi has now created will mean that true mergers will no longer be a sensible economic move for pure NS plays, so t/o or nothing for NS atm afaic. Pity... lol, as that would of been one way forward our board may of taken as it would of probably kept their snouts in the trough too.

aimo & dyor

Lol, yes ..... down ~3% on opening, wtf ... someone is trying very hard to keep the SP depressed, or we have another seller.

Oh, ~5.7m traded today, very high day in terms of volume.... on a good blue day too... ;-)

flexmw,

Yep, seen that too also interesting to see a significant number of OILQ trade types, never usually see these.

Trades over 50,000 shares ( not £50k that I usually post) :

tradeTime currency price volume tradeValue type micCode tradeType venueOfPublication
2022-05-31T15:35:21.937 GBX 261 1290960 3369405.6 UT AIMX P
2022-05-31T15:25:39.993 GBX 264.037 200000 528074 Off-Book AIMX PRIC P AIMX
2022-05-31T08:05:01.670 GBX 264 100000 264000 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-31T07:29:23.957 GBX 263.5 100000 263500 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-31T07:28:20.737 GBX 263.5 100000 263500 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX
2022-05-31T07:03:10.057 GBX 259.185 50000 129592.5 Off-Book AIMX P AIMX

85% of all 2687 trades today, BoT's.
220 trades today of 1000 shares of which 96% were BoT's to control the SP imo.

aimo & dyor

American / Canadian I would guess as we have be glued to ~+16p almost from the off today ... Over the pond wake up then down we go !

Yes,~£1.7m pd pre tax inc hedging / capex / admin / opex / divi / scb at average guided production, Brent $119 NBP 194p .... You can not really say what the Post Tax would be as it clearly depends upon how we negate the levy and 'normal' taxation. Although FCF will be extremely high so this will give us several options going forward.

aimo & dyor

Strange old world ... the levy has already been negated by the ~35% rise in NBP since Thursday.

Currently sitting at ~65% of Mcap in cash atm ... all of which is ring-fenced against the new levy, with zero debt to service too. Find me another NS producer in this situation if you can, or indeed anywhere.

aimo & dyor

Two weeks ago I posted on the fact that Simply Wall St had increased their fair value as follows : "it was sat at fair price of 372p, today its jumped to 722p... wowww. Resulting in an undervaluation of current SP by >50% ... In other words >100% upside to current SP !!.."

Well now they have revised their fair value once more, now sat at ..... 792p after Rishi's levy !! That's an undervaluation of fair value of some 68%, or in other words >200% increase from today's SP.

As I also mentioned, I know a lot of investors don't put much value on SW analysis, each to their own. Just thought I would share as either way I would say even an error of 50% in SW analysis would still mean ~60% upside to 396p atm.

For me, so long as SQZ can make the 'levy' work for us this is a screaming investment opportunity, even more so should our SP fall further. With planned CapEx and now I would guess more to follow given the levy will force investment, Serica remains an opportunity for those willing to wait a little longer than we hoped for only 4 days ago.

PS Only a matter of ~5 weeks or so until N Eigg spud !!

aimo & dyor