Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yes, dogg. I know all about contracts and the costs of drilling. I've written a few contracts for some blue chip company capex projects myself and it does take a lot of haggling and crossing and dotting.
Its not the last few months, it's the last few years that are very frustrating, so just having a vent :-). Its always frustrating to get in early and then discover you could have just waited & come in now (5 years later) at under half the price and used the rest for a new car !! They should be killing each other to Farm In if we indeed have 4 billion bbls ++ , yet here we sit like trying to sell a turd !! . We'll be dwindling back into the .8/ .9 p range soon enough, i reckon, awaiting the reticent signatures.
It is like one of those very long and drawn out jokes, but if/when we get to the simple punchline, we'll all either be laughing our socks off at the best joke we've ever listened to, or crying that we wasted so much time, (and paid for the privelege), (those LTHers like me anyway.)
Tum te tum te tum. Wake me up when it gets to 10p (unless I've passed on by then or cars are running on solar wind or orgone energy or are banned altogether.)
Vent over. Been in since before IW, will hang tough and laugh or cry with the other LTHers.......... Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
That's all we seem to do.... Assess and marvel at our great porosity, confirm this geology, analyze that core sample or seismic, investigate this, open data rooms. Oh, and delay everything time and time again.....of course...
5 years and we're still looking at the wonderful sand and rocks !!! If the damn soil is so impressive, shove a pipe in it and see if anything comes out... I am getting tired, like IslandGirl, of this constant stringing along. its almost like we're too sh** scared to actually have a go at drilling ........... geeeeeee zuzzzzz, get a fracking move on before oil gets banned !!!
Hi Island. I don't know about this one. I think the overall sentiment is one of tentativeness (tentativity?, tentation?) and 'pinch of salt' when it comes to announcements these days. A FO will help SP of course, but will we actually be better off in terms what we have i.t.o. assets ?...same land, same barrels UNDER the ground (and thats the problem), plus we don't know how much value we have to give away to FI'ee.
It's great we have help (still not a done deal), but a drillbit is a drillbit, and we're still 3-0 down on the drilling front, so I suspect a step or small spike will occur to reflect the added muscle we farm in, then a slow decay as normal, as we wait and wait (as normal) for actual proof of value of our real assets. And we need this soon I think, to turn the negativity around. I think the bigger spike will really happen just before FO's drill bit hits the ground and then even bigger if we get a commercial flow. (A duster would be a disaster). The longer we dawdle, the more the SP digs in to its rut, and the bigger the news needs to be to shift it.... promises and hype are SOOOOO over
No FOMO, only SLO-MO.
With 88e, the parallel universe it exists in has a different time dimension. In the normal world the gap between finding a huge reserve and drilling it would be months not years. The time between having finalised documents and applying a signature would be a day or three, not weeks (apparently the FO is subject to 'execution of the closing documents' and 'standard terms precedent' . Shouldn't be this long...
It is like watching a very exciting movie, but in ultra slow, frame by frame slow motion, and with subtitles telling you what should happen in the next scene... very frustrating, and doesn't build confidence that simple things take so long and deadlines get broken at every turn.
' Underpromise and overdeliver' should be the mantra here , not the other way round. Hopefully we'll get there, but the SP is adhering to the same SLOMO clocks now. All of course ... ......I.....................................................M..................................................H............(finalising final letter of acronym soon, ..maybe, ...subject to brain activity, ....but not guaranteed, .......'Great prospect' of a final amazing acronym letter soon).............................................................O . Aaaaaahhhhh
Suspicion and paranoia, Tyke. There MUST have been oil in Winx, right ? IW MUST have an underground lake of gassy oil waiting to gush forth, right ? 3 hyped up drills, 0 actual commerc ial discoveries (so far... I know, IW was just a data collection excercise, yada yada yada). But still, this plays on peoples' minds. So I think we are at a stage where people now want indisputable evidence of promises coming true .
I must admit to having these feelings myself. Can't help it. Logic says 'buy more at this level', but thats what I did before the IW drill, and again before Winx drill, only to watch the SP tumble on bad news.
We haven't seen the FO agreement or terms yet...it could be a rubbish deal where we give away loads, or it could be really sweet. Again the 50/50, and so far, its always gone the wrong 50 way (that's what people feel, right or wrong).
Funny thing, sentiment. I'll just hold and hope and I guess that's what many are doing. Gamblers and shorters should be jumping in, but even they aren't 100% convinced.
Just saying this is one explanation. I think that it will go up when we see the actual FO agreement, but not drastically. Poeple are wanting proof positive that we have commercially viable black stuff . Not land, not 'potential', not even partners who might or might not get the stuff out the ground. They want the spraying gusher with drill crews covered in the stuff now. Anything else is going to be treated with trepidation...
Its just been too long, too slow and too many disappointments . IMO of course. I will no doubt kick myself if/when they do go up hugely on a great FO. there's just that little seed of doubt stopping me topping up right now. Human nature sucks !!
Hey Brom
yes, forgot oil was that high !! Don't think we had billions of shares in issue in those days... This extract (blah blahs by me) from a july 14 RNS shows 250million or thereabouts in issue (unless I'm reading it wrong...). (thats where I got my 1.5p from 250m x 35p / 6bill.) Anyway, not important, just that we should be way better off than we are, suspicion and paranoia abound...
Tangiers Petroleum Ltd (TPET)
Friday 11 July, 2014
Tangiers Petroleum Ltd
Issue of Equity
(blah blah...)
Following the above issues, the Company has the following securities on issue:
Number Class
251,596,723 Fully paid ordinary shares
(blah blah around 60mill options listed.)..
10p should be possible, I think, maybe not a jump to it on FO announce but pre-drill.
Let's see,
1) we got to 4p or thereabouts on nothing more than the anticipation of some black (or golden) stuff coming out a 3 inch vertical 3500m hole on IW drill. We had no backup partner and had a 50/50 shot, at best.
2) Back in the Tangiers days, this was up to 35p ( around 1.5p per if we had our 6bill shares then) and we had sh#* in terms of assets (apart from the camel variety).
3) Our asset value alone gives us around 1.56p/ share,
so at a MINIMUM, with no hope of anything, no land, no partner (i.e just like Tangiers days before the mega duster) we should be at 1.5p as a low base. Add in the security of all that land on which thereis certainly some oil, a decent FO partner (hopefully) and I can see this adding up to a lot more than 5p (which is only where we almost got to with just the hope of a splash from IW drill.)
We were quite stable for a long while on 2-2.5p. I think that is where we should be right now.
the only thing keeping it down is that everyone has lost faith after contiguous dissapointments and the SP has set itself sub-1p as a new (undervalued) baseline, despite all the above. I know I'm guilty of a certain amount faith turning into hope after 4yrs +.... That will need a huge reset, as in flowing oil, probably, to restore. Even an imminent new drill is not going to get me to buy any more shares, (been there IW and Winx, still hurting, so it'll be up to other investors, the hopeful LTHers, and big players to buy in and push the price...
So I reckon 5-10p is on. It might take a few months. if the planned winter drill hits first time, of course, it will jump to and maybe beyond this , especially if a commercial flow is proven possible
All in MHO and based on the feelings of me (and I'm sure a good few other LTHers). Damn, I hate waiting.....
Yogurt, Been saying this for months now ! Where is that pesky Baker Hughes and USGS data ? How long does it take to analyse a few core samples, fo goodness sake !!?? If FO is going for both HRZ and conventional, they would surely want some convincing data, seeing as nowt has actually surfaced bar a few oily gas farts and some sand.....
Still reckon this is what is happening , but all just bored speculation....
Come on 88e , 4 years to try to get a hole on target and we still can't hit a 'roo in the bum with a didgeridoo. Any more delays and oil might become obsolete, then we could convert all our ultra-deep holes into geothermal wells and make a fortune selling energy. Sorry, very tired and delirious....
And an even more detailed look at the whole lot here (pg12-17)
http://www.petroleumnews.com/products/Exp_2019.pdf
Hey Brom
No argument detected. Was just saying that the nervous ones will probably have a chance to sell at a nice profit if/ when the FO is a) announced and b) gets ready to drill.
I got caught on the IW pre-drill spike, buying a big top-up bunch at 3.15p, just before the 4p spike, thinking 'if they do hit oil on this drill, it will rocket and I don't want to get left behind'. That stuffed my avg to around 2p, so there are people who buy on the spikes (hence my name :-) ) Good luck. Lets hope this FO is genuine, and is a big enough player to take on 2 or poss 4 bill (HRZ and conv) bbls
Neill, we did get to 4p, andf that was just in anticipation of an 'experimental' drill on IW. I reckon you'll get a similar chance to get out if you want on anticipation again. Having a substantial partner in a FO (hopefully) is bigger than drilling a single 3 inch hole and hoping we get a gusher, IMO.
I think the nervous will have plenty of opportunity to sell out and take 20-50% profit at least, if not on anticipation, then when the FO horiz drills are announced (just like IW but with more commitment). The big kahunas will come when we have to decide if we truly believe there be 4 billion bbls down there or not !!
The first FO drill (if and when) will be the big one - dust and we're finished - oil and we smile
50/50 - red or black - at least there will be an exit opportunityjust before the ball settles - all IMO
Brom and Newanda. You missed my point. I was trying to explain WHY the SP is down wrft sentimaet, and what is generating the negative sentiment, not provide a factual report for checking by teacher. Seriously, you're going to nitpick 'almost 5 years' against ' closer to 4 years' . And BTW, the trace hydrocarbons you cite against my 'not a drop' can hardly be counted as 'oil', or even a viable well. 'Trace' generallly means 'a very small quantity, especially one too small to be accurately measured' . hydrocarbons are pretty much any organic compound you like, including sugar, alcohol, even human emissions. And you want to count that that as a success ?. You really are an optimist.
Derisked is a term used a lot in our glowing RNS and presentations, but turns out to not mean 'risk-free', (as applied to Winx ), far from it, it seems, so I wouldn't use that as a 'good result' .
End of the day, i've been in 4 yrs +, and am hoping for a big one, but worried this dwindles so far down, that even a 10 bagger only takes it to where it was in the pre IW2 days
Hu, I thnk its fairly obvious why this SP has dwindled down. Its a human thing, we are all seeing only the good bits, as in we see ''there are definitely 2.2 billion barrels of conventional and another 2+billion of frackable barrels under IW" ; " there are 400m bbls in Winx" and then we drill them, and see there's not a drop. 3 out of 3 drills has produced not even enough oil to fill your car. We've had to try artificial lift and all other sorts of trickery, but end up plugging the wells.
It affects us, even though we know deep down the chances of success are 25-30%. Just seems after 3 goes, we should have hit something by now.
the other thing for me is how slow things move. Just 3 drills in almost 5 years. Our minds say " but if we are that certain of the oil" why do we hesitate so long...go forth and prove it" which we can't seem to do.
But I think its mainly the hype we are fed in presentations : (" amazing potential", "extend the successful Nanushuk", "de-risked", "flow-back gas supports presence of high API oil / condensate in reservoir" ; "(IW) attractive compared to other commercial shale plays" ; "good oil shows" ; "88E Prospects De-Risked by Recent Discoveries" ; ".. so that a farm-out can be achieved in 2016=>potential to unlock several hundred million to over a billion dollars in value for investors" etc etc) which is then followed by disappointment .
I know, I know.... 'that's the oil business', ' we all know the risks' yada yada yada ...and Dave has to actually SELL us the shares, but we are human and believe the hype, only to get kicked in the teeth by missed deadlines and no evidence of oil. This 'farmout' is actually 3 years later than the Nov 2015 IW presentation (quoted above) initially targeted.
Its death by a thousand cuts. We aren't dead yet, but are feeling the cuts in the delays, dusters and lack of any encouraging communication.
Thats why the SP is so depressed.
With a 'penny share', on AIM, nobody expects to be waiting 4yrs + for a return. Most people are down 50 - 75%, and would have got in/ topped up on the spikes just before the potential gushers, I would guess, and I guess we are all glum that we we could've invested in a blue chip for the alst 4 yrs and been UP, but have always held, and still hold hope for that 4billion barrels + to actually be there .
No-one wants to sell at these prices, for only when you sell do you actually lose real money, so
...here we sit, brokenhearted,
...the well we dreamed of barely far*ed..........
(lets hope the next one has some liquid "follow through" :-)
Damn, I'm tired of waiting...................
That's my tuppence worth. ... whatever takes your mind off the long waiting
Nice one Gold. 4 bagging okay if you came in around 2p avg like me, but 4x this low bar won't do. (3.2p) Share is worth 1.56p on assets alone and we were 4p just before the IW plug. I'm hoping for an initial 4 bag like you, 8-10p for me, on FO news then I'll take my initial spend out to keep missus quiet, and leave the rest in till they shout 'thar she blows' (or is that a different sort of oil). I want 4 billion barrels found & 88e sold off at min £3/bbl, i.e a £2 party !! Now thats optimism for you...
Or it all goes t*ts up and 4 years of hell will at least be over.......
I still reckon there's a 'twofer' deal going on here, and the preferred bidder is waiting for the Baker Hughes and USGS final reports on the HRZ, before making a bid to farm in to both the HRZ and conventional. If you're going to put staff and kit on the acreage, and both conv and unconv can give you 2bn barrels each, why wouldn't you hedge your bets, mimise overheads and potentially take double... or at least cut risk by 50%.
Now, the dataroom with all the microscopic details of the HRZ \(plus Winx data etc) is meant to be finalised by mid year (accofrding to all reports) so I'm thinking - watch for a mid-end June announcement saying a nice big player has agreed to farm-in on BOTH HRZ and conventional resource.
It is possible, I suppose, and would optimistically explain the delays very nicely, but it's more just me passing the time while we slowly stagnate. Other scenarios for the delays indocate doubt & are more depressing so I'm blocking these out.
6-8 weeks, big RNS, 10p jump - going at 10:1 odds and rising the closer we get to mid year - so sayeth my friendly octopus
All IMHO of course and just conjecture. I now have carpal tunnel from twiddling my thumbs too much !!
With you on that sentiment, V111, to start from 2p (my average, as I got caught on the spikes. thinking, ooohhh, this could be it, best get in...) and see it go to a 1/3 of that despite having more assets and data than when we started, is quite ironic.
30% gain wouldn't be enough (if you're talking SP, it was 4p just before IW drill), and if you're talking your own gain, for me 30% over 4 years is not a good return. I want the lot (with minimum 2.2. billion) barrels sold at $3, and the £1 party !!. This slow atrophy, hoping for a miracle cure or organ donor, is killing me, (as is my wife) !! On paper, this is a terrible share that's just slowly draining away. Come on FO.
I still reckon the FO is taking long because the conv and unconv are being looked at together as a twofer (makes sense), and Baker Hughes/ USGS is being waited on... IMHO.
Morning all...Just thinking ...Could it be that the Baker Hughes/ USGS findings are going to be a required part of the due diligence? Full recommendations are apparently imminent after the initial review of the HRZ data was completed.
If I was a serious farminee, I would probably say 'you'll get a good deal subject to favourable BH and USGS final report'. The reports should help identify the best landing zones/ targets for the horizontal, and make it a lot less guesswork.
I would thus be happy to wait a bit if the DD is indeed contingent on the reports. (The depth of the sh** I'm in is now almost irrelevant, now...60% down 80% down... same thing....not worth selling)
The report will give us a lot more leverage and a lot less risk, make the farminee more comfortable and hopefully wanting less. We have nothing to lose by waiting a bit more , but if and when BH/ USGS say 'aim your horizontal drill HERE' we can drill with more confidence and if that oil is gettable, we should get it, rather than shooting in the dark . With baker Hughes and the US Geological Society, we can't get much more relevant brainpower involved, and if that doesn't provide adequate due diligence, then its beans on toast time.
PS, we won't need to issue more shares, surely. The idea of a farmout is that the farminee provides resources and services for a %age of the a) land, b) production or c) t/o / profits.. If we have that much oil, this share should be a fairly small number (I would guess anywhere from 15- 25% should do it, seems to be around the average for other FO's)
All IMHO of course, just thinking out loud
Get those reports out quick and lets drill before winter comes again....
Aussie, your missus'll have to get to the back of the queue mate :-) Mine's gonna show him what drilling a 'sweet spot' feels like, with a 1 meter drill bit (dry, of course, couldn't find any oil) !!
Tum te tum te tum ... why.........is.......everything..............to..............do..........with ..............88e.................soooooooooo................sloooooooowwwww (except downward spikes of SP, soquick)
Faith is all we have Neill. That and a rope with DW's initials on if he doesn't do anything to get us out of the 'coma spiral' (if I said death spiral, I'd get a BB beating). Can't see it, though. The balance sheet assets divided by the no. of shares in issue gives 1.56p, so even if he sells up the land and any other assets, we should be double the sp. I can't see the logic in buying up 1000's of acres of slope, bothering to spend millions on the drills (thrice) etc. if he planned to cream us and run. The time to fold would have been just after fundraising. (If not, then he's a really sh*t con artist). He has too much invested and the acreage shows too much (dare I say it) 'encouraging potential' to be ignored.
Someone will bite (the seismics and core data are quite convincing), then the asset value will be added to by an investment by AN Other. Hopefully no dilution will occur (depending what type of FO deal is agreed, (%age of acreage, %age of profits. %age of production, shares..who knows )
Keep the faith. DW is just as deep in as we are, ( more than most on here), and too much time and money invested to pull out now, for everybody...
It is just very, very slow. been in 4 yrs + and only 3 little test holes...... that's why we need this FO, we're too small to p*ss around like this.....
You only lose when you sell ...(or it goes bang). Could be a good year or 2 before we see the real value (if the 2200mbbls+ is real and gettable, and if we get say $3 /barrel as a buyout price...the £1 party is on).
But 1 step at a time. We HAVE to get a FO deal. There will be blood if we don't. FO will help drill the sucker properly (long horiz frac as we should have done & were supposed to do on IW2 |(why did we change the plan?)) and try to get at the conventional a bit later . If those 2 fail, then lookout for my obituary, as the missus is going to kill me !!
Hi all
Just having a look at the timeline in the AGM and Winx-pre supud presentations. Looks like we are going to go for the elusive HRZ horizontal frac and appraisal (Q3 19) BEFORE attempting any conventional (Q1 20), whereas the farmouts are inversely dated (conv FO- Q1 19), HRZ FO- Q2 19). Are we doing another silly thing chasing 800 -2000 mbbls of risky HRZ shale oil (which IW 1 &2 failed to raise a drop out of) rather than 2200 mbbls of conventional, for which we have the seismic inversion results which look 'promising' ?
I can see logic in both, but I suppose it depends how confident DW etc are that the HRZ will produce vs the conventional. Sine the HRZ is pretty much a new thing, how much confidence is there, actually, in the conventional resource estimates ? (unless the guys are sure that the HRZ will flow after all)
I'm only asking to be informed, not bashed up, so if anyone can say why we are doing it this way round, I would appreciate some insight. The seismic inversions 'substantially completed' end of 2018 all seemed so positive.
Hmmm.... what gives ?