The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
They've just made me nervous but hopefully its a slip of tact and timing on their part. Or a tactic to get the price down for a last minute pile-in by someone ? Director actions like this give shades of another share that starts with 8 and ends with E........ Squeaky bottom time. Thumbs held.
Not to mention damn EV's. A recent report in the E&T magazine (Institution of Engineering and technology) traced the carbon footprint of producing an EV, plus the electricity to charge it and found it would need to be run for 150 000 km (around 95000 miles) before it became more eco friendly than a small diesel and slightly less for a petrol (both of which they did the exact cost of producing and running exercise). Yet we are being fed this EV nonsense all the time. We only have 8% generation capacity spare (and not to mention how much power we have to import from France, Norway etc). When 30 million EVs all get put on charge every night at 100 Amps + each, blackouts will happen. And what of all the used lithium?. It doesn't have a half life..it's nasty stuff ....forever. Once its done in the EV, then a second life using the dregs for household electricity storage, then what. What about resale ? Would you buy a used car with a battery that's down to 20% maximum charge (like every other lithium battery after x charges). Nuclear and green hydrogen are the only alternatives, but once again we go down the wrong path....
Owl. 'Poor' doesn't even beging to get close to the dismal drill results. What gets me is the 'snake oil' hype that preceeds each drill. The stating of "potential resource of xx billion bboe", "sweet spots", heavenly "rock permeabilty", the beautiful slides literally showing huge yellow reservoirs of something. Where are these data coming from when there is nothing but cr*p down there ? Or has 88e found a way to alter the seismic printouts to show dust as oil for their slides ? It just beggars belief how convincing thay are when it comes to telling us that they have 'the biggest drill in the history of the North Slope', '90% probability of several billion bboe ' etc. The only billions we have is enough shares for everyone on the planet and beyond to own a piece of dust. I'm doing exactly what you're doing : taking 20-30% each year on what has become a very predictable cycle of false hype, CR, spike, dust, crash, dwindle...repeat. Slowly I will claw my money back. They want to play....lets play. They really are going from a penny stock to a laughing stock IMHO. Hundred bagger my a**e, DW !!
chrisev, do whatever blows your hair back mate. I really don't care. The post wasn't for you anyway. If you disagree with anything I've said, that's up to you. Yes, I could've made a few bob, and that's why I explained where i went wrong. There's plenty of data out there for you to DYOR. If you think I'm saying you should take my advice, or if you're the kind of fool that takes any single person's opinions or experiences as formal advice, I wish you good luck and also pity your intellect. Get a life.
Don't come in now. We are in the 'dwindle' phase. Long time till next drill season (April May ish), so the only action now is to wait for them to do another cash raise, sell off a billion more shares and the price will inevitably drop to its normal annual low around Jan. keep an eye for news of farmouts etc, although in 7 years of this nightmare, we have heard of the fabled farmout every year and only one temporary JV has come of it, alrthough we did get a free duster out of that one,
Wait till Q1 23, check the price, it will be way lower than now, come in low, sell on any spike and take 20% 2 or 3 times a year. Don't look to this one as a get rich quick scheme. Don't afll for the hype and froth. You'll hear the owrds "amazing potential", "neighbours find huge reserves, just a few miles away", and my favourite "prospective resource NN billion barrels, net to 88e xx billion bbls" (usually turns out to be dust, we must have the worst seismic ghear in the universe :-).
Way too many shares in issue now, those days of the £1 party have come, not happened and gone, be lucky to triple bag unless they hit the mother of all gushers.
Take what you can when you can. Don't hold out for the big one. Its never happened and and with just one drill a year, might be another decade, or might be next year... who knows. Just looking back, if I had traded on the spikes, instead of waiting it out believing the hype, I could have taken some lovely profits. Damn...
All in my humble opine, been in 7 yrs +, came in at 1.8p & have lost shedloads, so have become a bit cynical (not that you could tell :-)
Thanks Brom. My memory is a bit cloudy and was kimming the old RNS's to try to refresh. IW1 and IW2 look quite far apart on the maps is all. Agree we need to pursue the HRZ rather than the leftovers of others.
Lets see what they do.....
...did we change the plan to horizontally drill IW1, just to save a paltry (now, maybe then it was a huge amount) $5mill ?
PB's dream was the HRZ and we actually got liquid oil from the cores at IW1 if memory serves. Of course, being 88e, we then decided to move a few miles up the road from where we know we hit something good, and then try with IW2 to vertically hit a zone a few 10's of feet deep, 12000 ft down with a 6 inch drill bit. The frac probably cracked a few feet of rock around the hole, which then came up with diddly flow.
Once again, we let the perfect get in the way of the good. I reckon if we'd stuck to PB's original plan, instead of chasing everyone else's cast-offs, or trying to pick off the few meagre fruits of someone else's find that might hang over our fence, we might be in a different position today.
I vote we go back to the IW1 site, open it up again, put a horiziontal drill in and frac the cr*p out of it. Its the only way we'll know for sure and the potential prize would be worth it. We've now wasted 6 years and $100 mill + just drilling dust. Why are we so scared of our original goal of the HRZ oil ?
Anyhoo, I fell for the hype this time ...AGAIN... believing this was the 'biggest drill on the North Slope in decades' etc etc, and lost 50%...again. Taken it all out now for the inevitable 10 month dwindle, except for a token holding, so it can at least try to make some money elsewhere, and will pop it back in next winter for the next round of froth and take 30% (like I was meant to do this round, but didn't .... so gullible..). I now need it at 0.25p to get back my starting holdings, which have kind of halved each froth cycle as I get spiked thinking "this is the one". Think I have a kind of Stockholm Syndrome with this share
Anyway, thanks for listening. I feel better now. No need to slate my post, its just an opinion and a vent off of frustration with this torturous siren of a share. Enjoy the long break now. See you next winter...
Here's what I don't get. If we look back at the RNS following Charlie 1 ( 11th Sep 2020), it was announced as a significant discovery, with play depths stated and everything. It also stated that it was too late to move the drill to a better location and to flow test. So why oh why did we cap it off and scuttle off to Merlin. You can't farm out or sell a hole in the ground without proof of what, how much of it, and how fast you can get it out, exists.
I am in agreement that the sentiment has now turned. We are tired of this 'strategy' which only seems to involve buying more land, drilling a hole on it (that we either break or run out of time before we can prove anything), telling shareholders how "potentially" wonderful it all is and upgrading the resource estimates. (So wonderful in fact that it scares us and the best option is to cap it off and abandon it). Its like trying to sell a car that may or may not have an engine, using only the spec sheet and maybe a photo of a similar car (given we always get told how successful the well just up the road has been ).
Once again, we are late to the drill site (and I thought MY name was Never learn) and I think a lot of us feel that we will not make any flow tests...again. I live in hope, but every year that hope is halved, and right now its barely a glimmer. The SP is exactly where it was when I bought in 7 years ago, and there are enough shares in circulation now for every person on the planet to have one.
If the BOD doesn't realise this is make or break time, then they will be in for a shock at how low this will go if they fail to prove/ flow test this time, and may find the next CR (and there will be one) a bit trickier.
All IMHO (and that of quite a few of us by the sounds of it). Hope the drill goes faster than expected and we a) hit a big play and b) prove and flow the thing this time. Then maybe we'll have something to tempt farmers or even buyers. otherwise its just a...nother hole in the ground (we could modify that Pink Floyd song to our own :-) , worth diddly squat
@15.11 Carlos, don't forget we have pretty much doubled the number of shares in circulation since last year, so we are going to be very diluted, and unless we manage to flow test (note the last update RNS really covered their butts re flow tests with "contingent on x,y, and z" ), then we will be lucky to get to the same level as as the hypey fever on the previous drills, but I'm always hopeful :-). If we hit and flow, its a whole new world baby :-) But then again, we are 88e........ so its a long shot. Holding thumbs that this is the turnaround in fortune
Darth, don't want to state the obvious, but we don't actually have any oil ...yet, and given our track record, we can maybe understand the 'wait and see' attitude of the SP. Hell, we might not even get a flow test (again) as we've (again) left it till the last minute to drill, and any c*ckups will make flow testing impossible, meaning we cap off and move on (again).
I think this will really take off if and only if there is a gusher of oil that shoots 100 meters into the air. Ny excuses this time about broken drills, power failures, the dog ate the hole etc will spell doom for at least another year till we find another 'amazing, potentially multi-billion barrel net to 88e at 80% probability, independently verified' prospect. :-)
Just saying, IMHO, as a 7 yr plus investor, I am full of doubt following the hype and then disappoint with incompetence/ bad planning cycles we have been subjected to, and no doubt many others are too..... But I hold onto the hope that if we make enough holes, sooner or later we will hear 'thar she blows' , (or else Alaska will break away from Canada like a postage stamp :-)
hey other Never, they've had cash flow for years - flows from our pockets to theirs :-) !! It is also the ONLY flow we've had till now.
Pity we had to buy a piece of a working well to produce even a spoonful of oil, doesn't say much for our exploratory skills. As soon as I heard ' drilling delay' on this one I got a bad sense of deja vu. Here we go again : find a spot, hype up about how many billions of bbls are 'potentially' down there, CR a few 10 mill to pay off the Ferraris and buy some more assets, drill on the last possible day of the season, break something so we can't flow test, hype about lab tests then cap off, run away, never mention it again and repeat on a new hole next year. Been like this for 7 years now, so hopefully at least some Permian oil will stem the endless cash raises (there are now enough shares in circ for pretty much every single earthling to own a piece of 88e !!!)
I honestly don't know what we're doing here, 'seat of the pants' doesn't even come close. Its either an amazingly clever cash generating strategy that keeps us all lunging at the carrot of an actual flow-tested multi billion bbl discovery , and funding these guys year in , year out, or just sheer 'make it up as we go along' bumbling..... 10 years and not a drop has actually been produced from anything we have found. Long time to be not finding anything given the resource assessments ....
Anyhoo there are ways to still make money here, but probably not as a huge LTH any more, with all the dilution; play the hype cycles and score ... Those 10-20%'s soon add up to a nice bagger....
Damn. I got in again too early at 1.68. Looked like it was steady on the up for a few days, but it looks like just an extended shakey to fool me. Hopefully doesn't dwindle too far before picking froth up in the right direction. Can't be ar$ed selling now after just a few days and hoping it drops even more so I can get in & turn a few more dollars.
Hanging in now till either 3p or oil, whichever comes first.
GLA
Holey sh.. Its like going back in time . Same story exactly for the other drills... The predrill hype begins. Ice roads, rigs getting ready, yada yada yada...
I'm in at sub 1.2p or maybe even < 1p as it's really dropping quick now. 7 years I've been funding these 'discoveries' and its so predictable now. We will no doubt be drilling 1 day before the permafrost makes it impossible to correct any stuff ups, we will wirelog and discover, (surprise, surprise) the presence of hydrocarbons, adjust the potential yield way up, take some samples, send them for analysis while we all hold our collective genitalia in antici......pation.... of a CR!! But will we actually get a flow test this time, and if so, will we flow oil and not mud. This is the 10p or 0.1p gamble . Make or break time...again. If they can't get any oil this time that's it for me. Fool me once.....(actually 3 times now)...
Been riding the rollercoaster too long now. One more steep downslope and I'm gonna hurl and get off for good. Hopefully can claw back some more of the losses again this time...
GLA, WWTBOOTATW etc etc
That would be good news if we had any proven oil, moda :-). We need the price of deep holes or Alaskan land to go up. We have plenty of those
Someone wake me up once we get down to around 1.2p so I can buy back in pre next hype cycle..... One day we'll drill an oily hole and actually do something with it apart from cap and abandon...
"Massive potential"...now where have I heard that before from 88e. Oh, I know, on every other hole we've drilled.... Up 11% Carrots ? If you look at the 30 day view you'll actually see 26% down, despite the 'good' news.
Still waiting to get in when this dwindles down more (as it was doing quite rapidly just before the news that we all knew anyway).
Another almost billion shares being placed to dilute us some 15% more. We give, we give, we give and still not a drop to be seen, except on paper.....
I think I'll wait till Jan or so, having sold a bunch at 2.65p then jump in when its down to 1p or so and hope that we don't break this next hole...
Older, I'm with you on this. Been in 7 years now
I just wonder how the 'imminent news' will actually affect things mid term. If its good news, we'll get a little jump, for sure, maybe for a few days. People will then sell a bunch and it'll settle at some level close to where it is. Its a long wait till the next drill season, and history has shown us excalty the same pattern you mention - distraction and A.D.D.
Think Icewine : we were shown 'highly encouraging results', promised a subsequent horizontal frack, given upgrades to prospective yields, beautiful beakers of core sampled sweet oil, promises a farm out was happening 'imminently etc etc. What has really happened since on Icewine in the 3 years ? Capped off and abandoned. Winx too was hyped up but was a dud. Charlie was 'highly encouraging'. A most inconvenient power failure, and breaking the hole, and the dog ate my homework ... capped off and left. Now we have Umiat , Peregrine and all the other second hand junk we keep buying up, that those other 'idiot companies' who obviously missed out on the billions of barrels that lie within abandoned, and we seem to have got into a pattern of buy land, find potential reservoir, drill one hole, find 'highly encourgaing'results, then find some excuse to cap it off and go look for another acquisition.
There's no follow up on so called 'highly encouraging nresult' and no desire to actually try to make any money except by selling more and more shares then finding a new play to hype up and sell more shares. Its almost as if they are more interested in acquiring land and selling shares than making money
Seriously, if there was so much oil in these damn things, wouldn't a clever CEO direct a bunch of time and resources to taking advantage and getting some product, or at least a flow test to make it marketable for a buyout, or at least a farm out.
No, we cap and abandon and we buy another plot . Either we are being BS'd or there's some long term strategy I'm missing. Property development on all the empty acres of land we have perhaps ? WHo knows.
I just think a bird in the hand like Icewine or Charlie should be pursued, rather than jumping to the next distraction.
The skeptical side of me says this could be a clever way of making money off suckers like us. What have we actually produced ? What are our proven assets - flow tested marketable wells ? Nope. A bunch of unproven holes on the ground and some dubious lab results from a tiny sample.
Reckon I'll wait for the inevitable dwindle as we grind toward next season, play the spikes on 'imminent news' releases and maybe get a top up arund Q1 22.
All IMHO. Just very p'd off at the length of time it has taken to produce what? - 4 holes with lids on. Broken promises, plans that never pan out and distractions
Blackadder, I don't think any more lab results will bump this much higher. The spike up from the 1's to the 2p's has built this in. They're only going to confirm, again, (hopefully) that there's some nice oil in the samples (just like IW, remember, which is just sitting there now). They can't tell us how much, or what the flow rate will be, which is what matters. We have a long wait 'til we can make a new hole (only Dave could break a hole:-) ) and get flow tests done, and until then, as in the last many years, this will dwindle its way down as its already started doing IMO.
I'll be hanging in till early 2022 before putting more into this.
A takeover with no flow tests and our track record...seriously ??
Hey Brom. It's quite ironic we now consider a 20% drop (1.50 -> 1.20) in 3 weeks and a daily drop of 2-3% 'firm' for this stock. I am guilty of the same, but when we're used to the swings this thing usually takes, I guess anything above 1p with the slow dwindle down is 'stable' . Hard to believe we were up at 4p just 6 weeks ago !!! Why oh why didn't I sell then..... Its because I ...
Neverlearn
Yep Bev. Welcome to the 88 doldrums. Hoping to get a little bump when the results confirm that we just capped off a well with "multiple pay zones" great potential "" slugging sounds of vast oil reserves " etc. (yawn.. those old chestnuts) then I'll sell up and weather the inevitable dwindle down to sub p, then come back in just before the next hole. Seems the only way to make any money on this, having lost loads on paper, waiting for the elusive gusher for 6 yrs + Timing is key... ..