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or paid !! , Dubai :-) I'm getting tired of the toying with this share. " lets drop it when it should be going mad" . Is there some spotty kid writing algorithms to do the opposite of whatever should be the norm, or just a bunch of MMs trying to get in at 1p, letting it rise 30%, selling off and creaming it 20 -30% every couple of weeks.
Sod's law, I climbed in with a sneaky top up at .97, then failed to predict the (MM'd) reversal at 1.40, thinking it would go up and up as we got closer to the drill.
I reckon there's a few more see-saws still going to happen here before we get to results. Next time it breaches 1.20, I'm gong to risk my little top up tranche for a quick 20%, then wait for the now inevitable drop back to 1p ish , then do it all again n times until we get past 1.40. This has become a pattern now IMO and the ones creating it are taking nice profit weekly/ bi weekly willy-nilly , (but watch it change the minute I try to get onto it.... :-( )
If you csn't beat 'em ..... (and I'd like to, with their own keyboards !!)
Crumble, in hindsight I would agree that trading could have been very profitable, now we know that the other drills produced diddly. I have done a small bit of this myself and made a quick 40% when it went up to 1.4 briefly from a buy at .98. But it was a small trade, 1/2 a mill shares only. Pity my Dust-o-matic future looking glasses weren't working or I would have traded the cr*p out of this on all those previous IW and Winx spikes. Everyone has a perfect pair of Past-a-roid glasses. But like the song says ' coulda, shoulda, woulda are the last words of a fool'
There's got be a spike pre spud where you can make a few bob betting against success and selling just before results come out, unless everyone is so wary now of ol' Dusty, they won't shift till the black stuff squirts, and the spike won't appear. Seems to be having the brakes artificially applied at the mo.
Thanks all fore the insights. Interesting ont he PMO purchase from BP.... We'll just have to find the oily stuff and see what transpires.....
I was just sitting here watching the slowly stepping SP and got to thinking, so looking for any ideas on this, as we don't seem to know...
Assuming we hit beautiful sweet oil, and we indeed have 480mill extractable barrels as estimated, and it flows commercially etc etc (big ask, I know), what does that mean ?
On avergae the cost of extraction is around $30 -$40/bbl (we've already paid for our rig and drill through numerous CR's, I assume, so hopefully less)
So if POO is $60 say, will the SP be reflective of all that oil up front (i.e 480 mill x $30 profit per bbl / 6 bill shares = $2.40) or will it rise as the oil is flow-measured going into the TAPS (which could takes 100's of years at a few 1000 bbls a day production to empty the well/s).
All a bit confusing trying to work out a very rough intrinsic future value on these shares (i know a lot of it is 'what the market decides/ sentiment etc. but there must be some formula that takes the time into account : 1.6 billion barrels will take hindreds of years, and by then oil will be extinct as a fuel if the polar bears get their way)
Sorry, just daydreaming, but I thought it's an interesting little story problem. Maybe historical data from other wells in similiar positions might be useful, but most seem to be about the buyout price after a successful flow test (Cove Energy etc).
Hmm. Anyone got some handy data on this type of theoretical valuation (all assuming we don't end up covered in dust) , or is it just a case of wait and see what the market decides....?
FAFH, in the pre 70's days in the UK (showing my age) , a billion was a million million, and a trillion was a million billion (the naming following the exponent on the million (i.e million squared = billion, million cubed = trillion) then we went all yankified and adopted the 'short scale' ..... Very confusing, as we were taught the 'old' way....
The BBC News magazine did an article on this in 2011...here is an excerpt..
"the words billion and trillion, or variations on them, were first documented by French mathematicians in the 15th Century.
A trillion was 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, or the third power of a million. The US later adopted what became known as the short scale, which reduced a trillion to 1,000,000,000,000 (and a billion to 1,000,000,000), but the British retained the old system until the 1970s."
Trillion - 1 + 12 zeros
Quadrillion - 1 + 15 zeros
Quintillion - 1 + 18 zeros
Sextillion - 1 + 21 zeros
Septillion - 1 + 24 zeros
Octillion - 1 + 27 zeros
Nonillion - 1 + 30 zeros
Decillion - 1 + 33 zeros
Jeepers, I must be bored waiting for this damn drill to start turning.......
Haha Brom, that was me telling someone off for spreading scam spam. But even my bottomless faith and patience are being tested with these damn negative RNS's. Like I said, ..one day I'll be smiling (or else taking a plane to Oz with a drillbit and a jar of Vaseline :-) ). Got a feeling though that all this waiting and teasing will bring forth the rock oil.
An 88e RNS will actually give some good news. Not predictions, not pretty maps with all those oil wells shown, not glorified hype about our fantastic acreage, cash reserves that suddenly aren't, and 'potential', but something goddam solid (or even better, liquid !) . One day...... !!!! Jeez....
Correct lebugue. Man, this SP is being controlled tighter than a Scotsmans pursestrings (its okay, I'm half Scot). The whole of Jan so far has been between 1.30 and 1.40. The second it goes outside these limits its whipped back in super quick. The graph for Jan so far looks like a mesa with a flat top at 1.40 and a parallel scree line at 1.30. Someone wants this low for as long as poss....could be good for us, making the spring compress really hard for a big jump.... But you never know with this most frustrating of shares . Let us pray, the dust away, that in our toil, we're blessed with OIL. GLA
OK, PMO is 15% up, but to be fair to 88e, we are some 30% !! up in just a couple of weeks, and jumped up 40%+ (to 1.41p from sub 1p levels in just a few days, a few weeks back on, well,... nothing new really. A lovely little share if you play the volatility with some spare change and leave a LT stake in for the (hopefully) gusher in Feb
Jiddy, my message was in support of yours and trying to show Poggy that we are on the rise over the last couple of weeks. Like you, been here ~5yrs, and waiting (oh, the waiting.....). We deserve this to be the breakthrough drill, for sheer determination and sticktoittivity alone.
Cheers, never...
Any 12 yr old kid could take a ruler and assess that the average slope of the graph is UP since 4th's low. Minima are trending up, as well as maxima. Avg slope is + 0.0188p/trading day. That's 0.15p rise (assuming a close on 1.04 today), or 16.85% in circa 2 weeks.
Any trader would love 17% in 12 days (imagine of you spent a £mill, then 12 days later could bank 170 grand profit, puts it in perspective), so let's see this as deffo positive and hope it carries on this lovely steady (its not slow by any means) rise. Ignore the little dips, guys. There will always be a few traders or opportunistic LTHers taking a few bob here and there, and noone can blame them, but the overall effect is minimal. Better a nice slow rise than a manic frenzy.
QED
Another little rev today. Its getting feisty on the starting grid !! I think a lot of folks will have some automatic target-sells go active above 1p, e.g. those who climbed in at or below .8 - .9p a few weeks ago and are happy to take 10 or 20% for some christmas beer money. Once these quick trades have all cleared, and the roller coaster settles, we should start seeing a smoother rise.
Hoping to equal/ exceed IW 1 and 2 pre-drill highs of around 4p so I can take out my little top-up on any hype-spike and thus cover my costs to date and derisk a bit, then enjoy a free ride with the big stash.... Should be a doddle given the level of certainty of oil is supposedly higher (hmmm...) than the uncharted HRZ...
Holding thumbs and squeaky bums.
These ups and downs are encouraging, I guess..... Looks like we're revving the engine. Just have to drop the clutch... Come on drill time....
ET, make that even harder for 5 times in a row, albeit the first duster under a different name but same DW : Morocco, IW1, IW2, Winx - 'so much dust, terrible dust' (in a Trump voice)..., surely this one will make it all good..... Crossing everything. All in on black, spin the wheel...., lets hope we don't end up in the red
Also agree with Major. this is going to sit now with maybe some 10% fluctuations for the rich & brave to get some Xmas beer money (although today looks really settled). It'll probably do the classic 88 dwindle downwards as we approach Jan. We did hit 4p on hype before IW, so if this is more definitely (and I use that term lightly in 88 context) a producer well, I also think we should exceed that. Then its oil or dust time, and that's the real gamble, stay in and risk a 50/50 shot for a huge jump (20-30p ?? if reserves prove viable 450mbbl x ~$5 /6bn shares) , or climb out on the anticipation frenzy....hmmm... not for the feint hearted
i swear this share has already taken 10 years off my life........ and its too early for an eggnog !
Exactly Brom. It is completely illogical. the SP is nowhere near where it should be, even if you divide assets by shares we are still 50% undervalued. And no reasons for the rises and falls. Someone is playing with it, but swing around it does, and if you can make a few quid off those unexplained swings while we wait, happy days. After 5 years and many anticlimaxes, it at least gives me a bit of excitement, albeit with piddly sums. You can almost spot when a new low 'base' is being established and guess at some psychological threshhold for buys and sells, and then bang a few quid in, wait a few days or a week and most times you can score a quick 5, 10 or even 20% . Just a bit of fun, but if I had a few mill to play with, different story...... roll on Feb, and please, ye mighty oil gods, let there then be flows, ...nay.., gushers to filleth my long empty chalice
Agreed Kat. I did take a sneaky little trade and made 20% in 2 days just before the spike to 1.14p a couple of weeks ago, and have taken another when it dropped below 1p, but that hasn't worked... yet, needs to top 1.2p. My LT holding has remained and even grown organically for close to 5 yrs and not touching that, just trying to play these swings and roundabouts with some loose change. But as my name suggests, I think I should just quit that while I'm ahead.
But those who say there's no money to be made on this share are very wrong. 20% swings are abundant in fairly short periods. You just have to read them right (not that I can, but I'm getting a feel for this share after so long and how it is manipulated). I'm thinking I'll leave a small punt in at this very cheap level, then hopefully it gets to 4p or above just before Charlie drill (as it did on the last IW ropey drill's anticipation) and I'll take the profit off that to cover my initial long term holding cost, and then free ride from there till the fabled £1 party. I would say there's a very good chance this will spike nicely before the drill in Feb, but too early to bet big on it 2 month's in advance. I see us being sub 1.5p till ealy -mid jan, with maybe some eager-beaver spikes and falls before that, where 10 -20% gains can be had if you're brave, but 2p before 1 Jan....hmmm, unlikely IMO. People have been bitten too many times now and will 'think about their grannies' to prolong the moment . All IMO, DYOR and WWTBOOTATW (that's something about the weekend, but probably not apt, the weekend isn't going to do much to the doldrum phase we're in)
Agreed V111. However, having been a victim of a certain Abman's enthusiastic 'tips' on other 'typical' AIM fly by nights, I see 88E as definitely a genuine investment and have been in for nearly 5 yrs now. No AIM fly by night company is going to be in that long or spend so much time and effort informing, buying acreage, seismics etc.
The 'quiet' LTHers can also do a bit of trading, no crime in that. Last week I had a rare few spare pounds so took 5K's worth at .89 and auto-sold a day later when they went shooting past 1.08 (had I held a bit they went to 1.12, but I can't sit and watch all day, have a job). If I wasn't using my ISA, I could've used my T+3 option and not touched my own money. Anyhoo, thats 20% in 2 days, and still left my big LT holding intact.
i feel no shame trading like this. Why not take advantage of the MMs manipulations , tree shakes and news volatility, while we LTHers wait for the big prize..
If Charlie 1 is a go, thats 480m bbls or whatever, net to 88E. I don't know what that means in terms of cash value, as the barrels will all be underground for many many years, but assuming they're worth $30 a bbl in profit after extraction cost (not sure if PMO is covering the full cost of extraction and 88 just gets the fruit etc) x 480m bbls is $12 bill. 6 billion shares and the math looks nice for our fabled £1 party. Obviously there is a time factor, other costs etc... 1.6 b barrels at even 10000bbls/day flow will take 400 years to get out, so it all gets a tad complex trying to calculate a target
Anyhoo, long term (once flows/ reserves are proven) I'm thinking we may see well into double figure SP's mid next year.
In the meantime, be like a toddler and play on the swings. For me a little dabble here and there helps offset my current LT paper loss and keeps the missus' frying pan off my head.
2020 has to be the year we get into profit....no way I can take another fail emotionally. Good luck all, DYOR, WWTBOOTATW and all the usual..
1p it is Major. Party at yours ?
The whole reason we are spiralling down is the slo-mo of this company. We are making the hole in Jan, but we have to wait a year to put a bendy drill bit down, drill sideways and frac. Seems ludicrous. The rig will be there, the crew, just do it in one shot. I bet you there'll be some c*ck-up. Our experimental drill and frac will probably open up some secret seam and all our oil will slowly leak away into somebody else's play over the next year, so when we finally drill in 2021...surprise.... no oil, just dust..... again.
I am a bit depressed about this. There's long term and there's loooong term. By AIM standards, 5 years plus to slowly drop to its lowest ever is not much of a share.
I know things are not that simple, but a whole year from spud to frac ??!!! , on top of the over 5 years we have been waiting for just a cup of flipping oil. How long do other companies take to find then extract the oil, surely not that long.....
I am now starting to brick it. Have put a lot in here, topped up thinking we were good to go and bottomed out at .9p, but at the mo, looks like another AIM disaster. Oh well, too low to sell now.... gotta be in it if it gushes forth (in 18 months damn time)
Just watching this spiral away on what should have been seen as 'good' news. 30% of something out the ground is better than 100% of stuff you can't get to at all. I am now convinced the trust and belief in this share has gone into seriously paranoid territory. As in 'OMG !! BP or Conoco or Shell didn't go for our little company farmout. (maybe they diod, but they didn't bid high enough, who knows) We're doomed !!' (in a C3PO voice).
This puts a lot of pressure (no pun intended) into the first drill in winter. No oil gushing forth and we'll be gone for good. (I can't remember ever seeing a share valued at 100ths of a penny, but where else can we go as we're already in the tenths of a p). Better be a gusher not a duster. Let us pray :
'Oh mighty oil gods, we beseech thee to guide thy magic dragon fuel unto our awaiting metal proboscis, that it may rush with abandon to the surface and filleth our chalices and thusly enrich thy humble servants who have waited 5 long years or more with nought but faith in thy glowing word (and bug*er all else). Amen'