Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Dicko, most of this information is now.out of date.. we have been heavily diluted in last two years, so figure would be around 2.7-3p oer share valuation based on same credentials as then..
BP has broken even in JUNE..doesn't mean break even for the year up to June but likely June itself, based on copper pricing on sales compared to costs of production, something I amongst others am struggling to work out currently as believe that Baita is ever evolving, with cost changes regularly, so will they break even or better in July onwards..? This is up for discussion..
The diamonds do not look like coming soon enough for Vast to cover the current debt.. gow Vast will get around this without further dilution will be something of a miracle imo.. unless people are aware of another way Vast can grab from the money tree...?
I'm feeling very negative about this share today.. ๐ people will probably jump in and say sell up then, but I'm still holding onto the possibility that Q3 will be the turnaround in this company id always hoped for.. diamonds look like a much longer haul, and the debt is having a massive drag on the share price.. will it get resolved? Probably.. but imo it will be at a cost that will be tough to stomach for shareholders, but necessary to continue.. how much will mercuria and alpha want..? Well, unlike the rubbish being spouted on advfn about dilution down to silly figures, Vast only have around 1 billion shares of headroom, so this clearly wont cover the repayment of the total amount owed.. so Vast need leverage, they have the diamonds play, and again the rubbish being sputed on advfn or twitter about there being no diamonds, is imo nonsense, creditors will and would have wanted assurances.. so we'll assume they are locked away out of reach for the moment.
Tajik is frustrating, but the monies owed must be building up into a reasonable pot..
And then we have BP.. on the cusp of apparent greatness, but all are very wary and pessimistic on the 'true' figures of sales on production and cost of production..
It's hard to like a company who don't give a true and real reflection of the current state of play and then sit back and let the share slide into the abyss..
Positives please ๐
Sandy, I hope you have some costs to share with us soon...
Chailwala... there is practically nil chance at this point of 5p.. but like your optimism.
Again, this is acting as though there is a further placing in the pipeline..
.. ๐
Panicking is not the right word Cox.. trying to understand what is occurring, other than the inpatient leaving, is the issue.. we've had resonably good news on th Baita update, if a little vague, whuch did nothing to the share price, and it looks as though the outstanding debt will be extended to a later date, whuch again did nothing to the share price.. so...the share is acting as though this latest extension will indeed come at a cost to Vast. I was surprised the creditors agreed last time to extend without conditions (that we are aware) but people's good nature will not last indefinitely.. I have learnt a new level of patience with this share..
Forget the diamonds.. They will come later, the debt needs to be dealt.with now.. and that's what vast are in negotiations with, AP will need a rabbit out of his hat next week imo.. Baita is going OK but won't be cash positive until at least Q4 imo
It's getting harder to see the positives
Also, ive not seen much evidence, which was abundant before the last placing, of any pump to get any sort of placing volume away..?
It's quiet at the minute, and sunny outside ๐
Ray, let's entertain the 'possibility' of a placing taking place.. so soon after the last, but OK.. what reason will they be needing placing monies for..? I can think of a few.. let's start with the possible more negative reasons - th e iutstanding creditors have asked for 'funds' to cover the likely extension on their loans, even though AP has stated that both parties have been agreeable to an extension without any impact to Vast, but I guess this has to end somewhere..
or - vast requires funds to have the diamonds released, assayed and sold.. ๐ค
To me, Vast will have to pay 'something' to their creditors, as wasn't this the reason that they increased the cover of possible shares that could be placed to ensure 'that it is able to meet obligations in relation to the Asset Backed Debt facility from A&T Investments SARL (โAlphaโ) as announced on 16 May 2022 and the debt owed to Mercuria Energy Trading SA (โMercuriaโ)'??
Opinions...?
This feels like the calm or downward pressure of January 2023.. then.. it was as if people woke up to this share and it went from 0.2 to 1.1..
From then the situation regarding production has improved dramatically into almost a cash generative mine. The diamond play is still there in the background although delayed once again, and it's looks likely the outstanding debts will be put back to end of Sept, possibly allowing time for diamonds..? Or Baita being profitable?
What's happening to Tajik? Very quiet on that front..
Sandy, did you ha e a chance to dig deeper into production figures?
Lol... rubbish... they aren't bust.. playing for time, yes...
Baita about to break into profit if ramp up continues plus lots more
Extension as expected..
Actually thinking about it again, I think Vast will need money for a while yet to cover their 'corporate obligations' as they put it..
How much that is per month..? Then we can work out roughly when BP will be officially profitable ๐
Thanks Sandy for your input.. as always..๐
On this basis, looking back at previous production reports, especially January this year where they reported sales of 488DMT of copper conc in Q4 2022 , it would seem that Vast was much nearer to break even than I previously thought back then..? I do remember an rns stating that if certain problems didn't arise then break even would have been achieved much earlier..?
Why no sales in April, this must have had a big impact on any monetary reserves Vast had.. and thus money was needed via a placing to shore up the accounts.. but how many more placings will be needed to leave BP self sufficient..?
The monthly running costs seem or feel a little low to me, but this could be explained to an extent by 'de humanising' the operation and as previous rns have stated, the purchasing of machinery to ramp up operations and thus reducing costs over the near term..
Its certainly odd that a production report such as the one rns'd yesterday was held back, as although it was positive, it lacked the detail necessary to ascertain wether Vast is profitable now or next quater or 2024...
As always,.more please..
Sandy.. can you take your usual look at what little figures there are on the rns and extrapolate your take on this...
"Latest broker note on ADVEN.....Vast 2p price target."
That's weird Reg, considering it's where TW spends most of his time.. ๐
2p achievable by year end earliest imo (ยฃ60 million + mcap)
It was only sold into with any leftover placing shares.. I am unsure why vast would need another placing so close to the last ..?
June alone equivalent to 50% of TOTAL Q1 2013 WMT production... massive ramp up.. into profitability in H2 2023..
Expect a podcast in coming days..
We need to focus on why there hasn't been a production report as of yet.. is there something vast doesn't want us to see..? Is another entity looking at production..? or is the report going to be used for some other means..?
Vast still needs ongoing funds, the recent placing told us that and so it isn't self sufficient quite yet, that could all change with multiple apparent and imminent income sources coming into play..
Why do Vast lat the share slide knowing they hold the info the investors are awaiting..?
There are 3 plus billion shares in play and drops when a tiny fraction are sold.. imo someone is scooping these and been give time to do so.. ๐ค
Very good Sandy.. very good, logical thinking that's missing on this board..
Would they be accumulating for profit.. or a takeover..
That's a big holding to have, and would possibly explain the lack of any production rns whilst accumulation took place at these levels, or is still taking place ๐ค.
Thee has been no real opportunity to trade this for the past week or so as price has been pretty flat..hence the lack of traders on this board atm..
Spikey spikey next week..?