RE: Well9 Nov 2017 13:43
To be fair to Aguila, I think he tries to re-focus the board towards the resource rather than the permits because:
1. Everyone here is pretty much convinced that the sp is languishing because of permits. That might be true, but if it's not and we get permitted and the sp still doesn't re-rate, that could lead to a lot of capitulation here and a bigger drop in the sp. Personally I put the current sp down to cyclical reasons, and I think being primarily on AIM does not help one bit.
2. MC encourages you whenever you speak to him to focus on the resource because (i think) he is as certain as is possible (force majeur notwithstanding) that the permits will be granted, it's now just a case of sorting out the details. That's probably fair enough as it's common knowledge now that the government have approved the EIA and all that's left is to get all parties to agree to the RAP (no mean feat but it's looking better every day). I think Aguila probably agrees with this perspective.
I don't really consider it ramping as he's not being ridiculously bullish (remember the 28p party?), just switching focus from de-risking (permits) to resource upside. In fact I do agree with that.
The real short-term question in my mind is what a tsx listing and permits granted will do to the sp? Some of my thoughts:
- Permits: Huge de-risk of the project once granted, but a re-rate requires new buyers and big volume, do we really think there are lots of potential AIM investors just waiting to pile in here once permits granted? I'm not so sure, as I think AIM investors are momentum chasers, and even if permits are granted this share is still a medium-long play. Remember, gold explorers are still in a bear market.
- TSX listing: I think this could re-rate us due to the fact that many new investors who's bread and butter are buying up cheap explorers in down cycles ready for the upswing will become aware of us. MC makes a great point in the Denver presentation that our Price/NAV and EV/resource oz gold US$ are far lower than our TSX equivalents, so it's reasonable to expect some arbitrage there. PLUS we have fricken' Ross Beaty as our largest shareholder!!!!
Anyways, we will see!