RE: Worth a punt?26 Dec 2024 11:33
Translation from the original Polish:
Both Greenland and Panama are facing bankruptcy during Donald Trump's upcoming term, something few people are really aware of. This is because both of these small, and therefore few, countries have been subject to international arbitration proceedings for blocking promising mining projects, with claims running into billions of dollars. Greenland once introduced a ban on uranium mining, which was aimed specifically at the Kvanefjeld project belonging to the Australian company Energy Transition Minerals. Meanwhile, this company had an exploration concession, also for uranium, which gave it the right to transform it into a mining concession, also for uranium, which it applied for before the ban was introduced. Greenland rejected this application, retroactively applying the ban, in response to which ETM is demanding up to $11 billion in compensation. Recently, there have also been serious social unrest in Panama related to copper mining in that country. First Quantum Minerals was effectively expropriated from its Cobre Panama mine. Orla Mining, Franco Nevada, suffered a similar fate. We are talking about claims exceeding $50 billion. If these claims are recognized by the tribunals, they will turn into gigantic receivables that these small countries will not be able to handle. Especially Greenland - it is doubtful that Denmark, as it still has sovereignty over the Island to some extent, would jointly want to take over these obligations, certainly not without concessions from the Greenlandic authorities in the sphere of independence from it. Of course, the claims are not yet receivables, but they are extremely interesting and substantive lawsuits. Perhaps some settlements will be reached before they are finally resolved, although at the moment this seems doubtful. However, if the worst-case scenarios were to come true, as we can see, a buyer with a suitcase full of money may appear, willing to take over these receivables in exchange for the realization of his geopolitical aspirations.