RE: Reality check coming soon on the BFSU?28 Nov 2023 06:30
Interested to hear the issue on carbon capture extending the negotiation put below but I really do see this now closing. If the reserves in play are to the potential being bandied around, the Major Oil company will want this secured by year end.
I think JV announcement and production uplift news before Xmas.
I always like to assess personal motivations in the managers associated to shares - our execs are not taking salary but being paid in shares - they are not going to put at risk 1 years worth of negotiation that could severely impact their own journey to wealth(they took this deal for the multiple of their salary, not just its nameplate number and being a good egg).
Equally Anavio will want to realise their position at some point rather than hustling lower entry points - again there is a life changing wealth creation for at least 1 person in Anavio that will realise with the SP rising - this is the only doubt to my Xmas theory - Anavio are UK based and probably therefore have a year end date of March2024 - why is that important? there will be a huge bonus inducing impact to a manager at Anavio - you would want that in your pay packet if its close asap - I wouldnt risk it falling into another year - for the senior / middle manager, you have to secure these wealth opportunities - simply life changing.
In short, people for whom this deal could be wealth changing will want to secure its impact in the current Financial year to realise their potential gain asap - you dont want this excitement on the deal waning to the paymasters prior to your getting paid by too long and you certainly dont want the anxiety inducing wait of an additional year - so when Exxon / Major after a year of involvement say this is the time, you ensure this is the time imho.
With increase in production at the discretion of the company to announce (timing is their call) they have time to check their real paymasters can close shorts and exposure prior to commencing the rise in share price - I expect production indicator to land prior to JV but without much gap creating a wall of positive change - to what SP I have no idea but for me, production breakeven removes significant enterprise failure risk so back to 10p plus and JV - double again minimum but the world is our oyster in that respect.
If I am wrong in this flimsy assumption based musing, we have another 3 months grace to raise production but also to hit the Anavio year end - I cant help but think that from our (COPL) side, its the Anavio person pulling the timing strings - however if he misses US Major year end he might lose the ability to influence a timely close in 2024 Q1 and find himself being played for his year end.
GLA
NtD
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