George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Trans
"but the rumour that snouty started are nothing more than that." - No - the JV is in discussion is a fact. Timing or completion unknown but 1 year is a long time to remain in process to stop.
Heres my opinion (not a rumour) - we will see JV pre calendar year end. US Major wants this in the FY as a reserves boost.
No drama if that doesnt pan out - the JV is the sizzling of the sausage - but with 1bn barrls oil in the ground and an expectation of rising production allowing free cash flow, RBL financing even without a major, the sausage is pretty damn tasty at this price also.
GLA
NtD
No
Very different close to day and very pleasant. Maybe Two thumbs Typer Tommy from Anavio took the afternoon off and forgot to keep thumping the sell button.
Hopefully its along-weekend, no, a reassignment on the cards for him.
3p for the weekend...
Thnaks THGambler for calrification on the volume aspect - it does load risk onto the wait and see strategy. With that in mind, I dont think the BOD can gamble on waiting - too much money relarive to our MCAP in play. They may lose out but need to take the option unless the source of their believing the rights to pass over will gain more worth is particularly strong - which I just can not see.
NtD
Well said Gotreal - your post brings to life the complexity and taken for granted wins of this company - thank you for the reminding me (us)
NtD
Agree Ltd Axis,
I believe our BOD are waiting to see if the right itself gains a worth prior to using the option to exchange it.
The VWAP over 10 days means even a 1000% rise in SP today will be very much diluted enabling the option to be escercised into still big profit.
I am by no means a fan of our BOD but I dont think they are just negligent here - there has to be an aspect in the timing that they hope leads to the orioginal rights being worth significantly more - the price of CIZ rising would imply that there is a deal in the making - this may be a wise move as they may not be able to slow their deal to force our hand on the option.
We will see.
Bushytailed becoming Bullish!
Inferring from your message that
1. You no longer believe we are going bust
2. You have bought - 40% upside
3. If you have bought you are clearly withdrawing your diatribe on placements (as by your own measure you wouldnt buy into that).
This is a massive turnaround in sentiment!
Good investors / thinkers / people can always change their view so well done BT - however, they usually change their view due to the change in evidences and what is happenning - on that we have seen little - LC still in the hot seat - so I will ask - are you so easily swayed by the modular strategy - I really felt you would be a harder nut to crack and almost feel slightly let down by the small change in circumstance driving such a change in your thinking.
Good luck with your new investment here.
Heartening to see the Mondo news for a beleageured lth here. Hope springs eternal. Problem with hope is that it doesnt satisfy the appetite for too long, similar to a...
...in the meantime, pleased to see there was Chinese at the site, apparently this friday its a toss up between Pizza, Kebab or a curry - look forward to finding out which
Thank you for my first moment of slight amusement on this board in some time.
Well the history is there. the future strategy is there and we have as much view now as we will ever have in terms of assessing to stick here, buy in or leave. Im staying - looks good to me and for the first time in a while the modular strategy follows logic and allows us to understand where the capex etc is going and should link to clear reporting.
ps - i was quite heartened on last weeks presentation that there are mini Leons in each country now - the structure looks more appropriate for an organisation anticipating growth on a number of fronts.
Hi Bushy
Leon almost got into that in the 1 hour meeting. He awkwardly acknowledged their hard knock learnings that led to this - I think thats as close to acknowledgement we will get on that element and he had to touch on it to explain why modular strategy is good. i have to say I like the moular strategy - it is of course subject to getting the processing complete but I am more positive than I have been for a while - why? Because for new investors this looks good and logical and its easy to analyse performance- eg 4 copper modules with results for each of x etc. Then refineries on their own metrics.
Hi Tuckman,
Good luck with your position. Yes there are concerns - plenty of them but I dont think to give an optimistic view you need to balance it with the already known negatives - equally i suppose I must then concede that giving a whole dose of negative is understandable without the positives. Up to each investor to assess their view and try and extract belief and view point of other investors from emotion and reactionary words.
Personally I have concerns and will breathe an enormous sigh of relief if we hit our 2000 bopd (or even at present indicate uplift beginning as a result of GGS). I equally have real concern over maipulation and control but I believe the current share price more than discounts these elements. Dilution is horrble but I work on 2bn shares - i felt this was an overcautious number about 6 months back but beginning to feel less confident on this element also.
Overall I worry about my scam factor - most people financially scammed double down on losses - have i made same mistake in not cutting - big big future but is it? etc.
But I believe this will uplift on production and JV (with an RBL in there somewhere also to limit the dilution so i continue to hold. Will rea-ssess in new year.
Hi Jonah and all,
Didnt Leon say last week we already had a module at project M?
Giving our view of future prosepcts on production and JV is ramping - yawn. Normal behaviour for a holder - if i couldnt find a ram story as you would put it I would sell.
On that note, Tuckman, only your closed mindset rules keeping you here - you can sell - in fact if you cant build a ramp case and you stay then you are in the Brewsters millions gang!
So much bitterness and vitriol here this morning - yes, as a LTH i have been rinsed but thats past. Assess the future from now, not then and take control of your investing position again.
No new news to trigger this outpouring which makes me think it has an ulterior motive in trying to lower sentiment to get a lower price.
Timing - Don't VELA buy at a minimum price and / or the preceding 2 weeks of VWAP? Maybe our board is looking to assure their trade - ie if today this went up 1000%, the BOD can assess whats behind the move in relation to their non-option rights, and then assess against the opportunity by exccercising option (at a depressed to raised price level due to pre rise period in average) and spin a profit.
Until the route to profitability is made for Conduit, there is no hurry at the moment Ithink - that will change as we approach the close of our option period.
GLA
NtD
Apologies to the board for using the he prefix im the last post in reference to the Anavio person - please mentally replace with they.
GLA
NtD
Interested to hear the issue on carbon capture extending the negotiation put below but I really do see this now closing. If the reserves in play are to the potential being bandied around, the Major Oil company will want this secured by year end.
I think JV announcement and production uplift news before Xmas.
I always like to assess personal motivations in the managers associated to shares - our execs are not taking salary but being paid in shares - they are not going to put at risk 1 years worth of negotiation that could severely impact their own journey to wealth(they took this deal for the multiple of their salary, not just its nameplate number and being a good egg).
Equally Anavio will want to realise their position at some point rather than hustling lower entry points - again there is a life changing wealth creation for at least 1 person in Anavio that will realise with the SP rising - this is the only doubt to my Xmas theory - Anavio are UK based and probably therefore have a year end date of March2024 - why is that important? there will be a huge bonus inducing impact to a manager at Anavio - you would want that in your pay packet if its close asap - I wouldnt risk it falling into another year - for the senior / middle manager, you have to secure these wealth opportunities - simply life changing.
In short, people for whom this deal could be wealth changing will want to secure its impact in the current Financial year to realise their potential gain asap - you dont want this excitement on the deal waning to the paymasters prior to your getting paid by too long and you certainly dont want the anxiety inducing wait of an additional year - so when Exxon / Major after a year of involvement say this is the time, you ensure this is the time imho.
With increase in production at the discretion of the company to announce (timing is their call) they have time to check their real paymasters can close shorts and exposure prior to commencing the rise in share price - I expect production indicator to land prior to JV but without much gap creating a wall of positive change - to what SP I have no idea but for me, production breakeven removes significant enterprise failure risk so back to 10p plus and JV - double again minimum but the world is our oyster in that respect.
If I am wrong in this flimsy assumption based musing, we have another 3 months grace to raise production but also to hit the Anavio year end - I cant help but think that from our (COPL) side, its the Anavio person pulling the timing strings - however if he misses US Major year end he might lose the ability to influence a timely close in 2024 Q1 and find himself being played for his year end.
GLA
NtD
It will be good to register our claim - that should be a positive for the company and the SP.
In the mean time I am very encouraged by Cascades - that £8m cap barely covers cascades alone imho.
My only problem is that I have got a lot of value shares and I could do with a couple being realised. I/ we are waiting for market to pick up and for this value to be realised. Could be a while longer yet, but I personally think money will come back to the market in next 6 months. I will remain uncomfortable until then i think.
Speel,
Apologies for pointing out the obvious but if its the board you need to escape from - dont read, or block views that annoy you. If its escape from the share you need - sell.
It really is that simple - many including me, dont like realising a loss, but its already happenned - you are only locked in here by your own rules.
GL
NtD
Main risk of this share for me has always been dilution. Moreso in a private company as you dont have that obvious route to market to sell to bail out.
I dithered about buying here as it was open that the new funding was coming and that would dilute - but the assets /prospects wood me.
My main private company concern is I dont have an exit and in the meantime they can reduce my holding by having funding rounds to which I am not invited - but to be fair I was worried about this pre privatisation.
Personally I will sell but I am holding out to see if I can get a better price or something else happens - 150p and I would take it gladly at present - but others target is clearly lower and they are clearing off sub £1 out of impatience and uncertainty of any offer.
Not sure they can get the jam out the cupboard for that Slug, let alone take the lid off in future