Member Info for NellyB

Environmental Authorisation Process

In 2012, the Company submitted an Environmental Impact Assessment ("EIA") to the Ministry, and which EIA was reviewed by the BEST Commission for the Ministry, and subsequently accepted at the time. The EIA was prepared in accordance with national and international industry best practices, and identified and addressed, inter alia, matters relevant to the proposed activities of the Company in its licence areas, such as Potential Impact Identification, Worst Case Discharge Analysis allied to a Fate of Particles Analysis, and associated plans for waste handling, hazard identification, and emergency/incident preparedness and appropriate response. Since 2012, the EIA has been a public document, open to public scrutiny and comment.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/LSE20200227070009_3508057/Perseverance-Environmental-Authorisation-Granted

There is a section at the end of the Perservence Environmental Management Plan 9Feb20 document (pages 2597-2630) that studies the attitude and awareness of the bahamian people towards the oil industry, BPC, trust in the government, incomes etc that make for facinating reading. A few examples:

1) between 53-62% give possible environmental damage as the biggest reason for NOT supporting the oil industry, whilst 0-4% cite climate change as their biggest concern.

2) over 60% of all respondents indicated they are likely to support oil drilling, knowing the the company that owns the exploration license is committed to sharing profits with the bahamian people.

3)Only 16-33% agree with the percentage of 15%-25% of revenue, whilst 63%-77% disagree.

4) The number one use of the oil revenues should be education, according to 42%-58% of respondents, followed by Improving infrastructure and improving healthcare. Subsidising electricity/cut down utility cost came flat last at 0%-1%

5) When asked how the government should use the oil revenues, "The environment/ Reserve the natural" came flat last, with only 1% of all age categories citing that option and "Help the economy/Development" was their most favoured option.

6) only 22%-40% of people trust, or somewhat trust the government to properly manage oil revenues.

I can't find a link for the document online. Maybe someone can add that?

I'm just taking a browse through the 2655 page EA produced for the P1 well. Some notable figures on the chance of spills, page 1229:
".7.1.1 Leaks and Spills (including Blowouts)
In the North Sea (UK and Norwegian waters) and US Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (US GoM OCS), there have
been a total of 292 blowouts between 1980 and 2014 (Table 5) (SINTEF, 2014). 31.5% of these (92) occurred during
exploration drilling. The frequency of loss of well control incidents in North Sea and US GoM OCS during drilling between
1980 and 2011 is 3.31 incidents per 1,000 wells drilled, or 0.331% chance (Table 6).
The number of all spills (any kind of substances, such as fuel, chemicals or drilling fluids) from platforms (not only blowouts)
by volume in the US GoM OCS between 1964 and 2013 are provided inTable 7. As noted in the table, only 0.77% of all spills
were over 1,000 barrels (bbl), and 79.5% of the spills were between 1 and 9 bbl. Causal factors, small spills frequency
compared to loss of well control events, and effects of hurricanes on spill frequencies are shown in Figure 6 to Figure 11.
Spill frequencies decreased rapidly in the 1970s and 1980s as equipment failure rates decreased. There have only been 17
spill events over 1,000 bbl in US GoM OCS between 1964 and 2015, of which six were as a result of hurricanes. Only two
events have resulted in such spills since 1980: hurricane Rita in 2005 (resulted in 3 spills over 1,000 bbl) and Deep water
Horizon in 2010"

This puts into perspective just what a freak incident the Deep water Horizon was.

Apologies. I would delete if I could.

I'm just taking a browse through the 2655 page EA produced for the P1 well. Some notable figures on the chance of spills, page 1229:
".7.1.1 Leaks and Spills (including Blowouts)
In the North Sea (UK and Norwegian waters) and US Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (US GoM OCS), there have
been a total of 292 blowouts between 1980 and 2014 (Table 5) (SINTEF, 2014). 31.5% of these (92) occurred during
exploration drilling. The frequency of loss of well control incidents in North Sea and US GoM OCS during drilling between
1980 and 2011 is 3.31 incidents per 1,000 wells drilled, or 0.331% chance (Table 6).
The number of all spills (any kind of substances, such as fuel, chemicals or drilling fluids) from platforms (not only blowouts)
by volume in the US GoM OCS between 1964 and 2013 are provided inTable 7. As noted in the table, only 0.77% of all spills
were over 1,000 barrels (bbl), and 79.5% of the spills were between 1 and 9 bbl. Causal factors, small spills frequency
compared to loss of well control events, and effects of hurricanes on spill frequencies are shown in Figure 6 to Figure 11.
Spill frequencies decreased rapidly in the 1970s and 1980s as equipment failure rates decreased. There have only been 17
spill events over 1,000 bbl in US GoM OCS between 1964 and 2015, of which six were as a result of hurricanes. Only two
events have resulted in such spills since 1980: hurricane Rita in 2005 (resulted in 3 spills over 1,000 bbl) and Deep water
Horizon in 2010"

This puts into perspective just what a freak incident the Deep water Horizon was.

There are muliple low value trades going through today.

I don't know if this is of any significance, but why buy/sell 8, 10, 37, 60, 77, 18, 95, 101 shares? The highest value of these trades is £2.70

News quotes from the judicial review application:

1) "The applicants argued that BPC’s stated intention in its EIA for an estimated 6,000 gallons of treated sewage and 900 pounds of comminuted food waste to be discharged into or within three nautical miles of Bahamian waters daily breach MARPOL (Convention for Prevention of Marine Pollution) and represents offences to the law."

That seems like an awful lot of food waste for ship that accomodates 180-220 crew.

2) The applicants also claim the drill site is on the edge of the Bahamian archipelagic waters and “therefore certainly well within three nautical miles of ‘nearest land’ for the purposes of MARPOL, it is likely less than a mile”.

Umm, if land is covered by the sea, it's surely classified as sea, not land?!

It's very interesting to note that the recent Auctus appraisal of BPC assets puts the Valuation of BPC at 3.33p, EXCLUDING the P1 drill, which it attributes a RISKED valuation of 4.26p to. So together, valuing BPC shares today at 7.59p

Comparisons with Rockhopper are worth looking into, but it's very simplistic to only include the market caps of both companies. RKH had a farm-in agreement, which if memory serves, left them with only 30% of the asset and their discovery was estimated at 200-250 million barrels recoverable. We own 100% and are targeting 770m -1.4B barrels.
The locations and hence routes to production are wildly different too., as is the oil price at time of discovery.

I welcome a thorough analysis of the numbers, but comparing a relative puddle in the back of beyond (which is yet to be extracted, some 11 years later) to a potentially world-class reservoir with a clear and easy route to market based just off the company market caps is not very useful.

I really should learn not to post before I've had my morning coffee. Yes, 9 zeros in a billion, not 12. :)

Oops. got my sums a bit wrong there!
$5,000,000,000,000 / 400,000 = 12,500.

'Only' $5bn to Bahamas?

$500,000,000,000 spread evenly between 400,000 inhabitants would be $1,250,000 per person. How much do you think they should get?

The Rainbow warrior does have a webcam. It only updates with a static image every 30 seconds, but better than nothing.
https://www.cruisin.me/cruise-ship-webcams/greenpeace/rainbow-warrior/

Why would you think that? The CPR is entirely separate to to the Bahamas Drill, as it refers to the ex-Cerp assets.
We had an RNS to say the CPR is due mid-November, so why would an update on the P1 drill have any bearing on when the CPR is released?

The 'tight hole' policy is new. This means no operational drilling progress reports until the results of the drill are know. Should make for a more stable SP through the drill, but investors should be aware not to expect news.

Tiburn: BPC Investor presentations are here: https://www.bpcplc.com/bpc-presentations-webcasts/

Afterburn450: They won't be anchoring the Icemax at the drill site. In 500m of water, that would need a minimum of 2km of chain / rope, per anchor. Anchors need to be pulled from the side to work, not pulled directly from above, hence the need for a MINIMUM of 4X the water depth.

With the commission of a competent person's report (as per todays RNS) it's likely that this is connected with leveraging/securing finance on more favourable terms, IMO.

Even in the worst case scenario, where the CLN's are used as the funding option, this is still far preferable to giving away circa 70% of the asset to a farm-in partner, as is so often the case with this kind of wildcat drill.

Interesting line in this article below:

"It said total payments to Stena would range between $8m and $11m"

Doesn't that suggest that Stena are taking part-payment in P1 equity, or shares, to make up the shortfall of their fees?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/americas/267535/stena-icemax-bahamas-petroleum/

The UK has a population of almost 68 Million. India has a population of nearly 1.4 Billion. If the orders come from India instead of the UK, at twice the price per test, ODX and its shareholders will be in the money.

Given what we know about the test quality and price point, the UK Govt would be daft to consider spending the taxpayers hard earned cash anywhere else. Once the Ulster study conclusions are digested and processed, MHRA approval for home use should quickly follow. I think that's what the Government are waiting for, before buying en-mass.

All IMHO.