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macd_91 - Completely agree and appreciate the insight. I am not a geologist and my understanding of geology is basic to say the least, however, what you're stating is completely logical and falls in line with my thought process.
The more information they have at their disposal, the more chance they have of getting it right. That combined with the fact that we appear to have a competent CEO at the helm positions the company in a very favorable position to deliver. Next week will be very interesting and could potentially be transformational if the results are positive. GLA
Some ‘back of the envelope’ calculations here… Appreciate that there are multiple variables that might also need to be taken into consideration such as the surface being drilled, but here it is regardless…
Friday 19th July 2019 - PM announced that spud for Heron had been initiated
Monday 5th August 2019 - PM announced that Heron had been placed on hold due to issues encountered with the provincial government (17 days after spud date)
Wednesday 14th August 2019 - PM announced that the issues had been resolved and drilling had commenced (9 days of inactivity). 'The DQE rig 40105 is now ready to drill out cement and then drill 8 ½ inch hole to the prognosed TD of 3,050 metres.'
Monday 9th September 2019 - PM announces that 'Heron-1 has been drilled to a total depth of 2960 metres' (25 days after reinitiating on 14th August)
Total working period of 17 days + 25 days = 42 days, factoring in that they encountered issues mid drill and they had already forecasted 40 days for completion. Remove an additional 2 days for logging, this brings us back to the estimated 40-day time frame. So, an average of 74m drilled per day.
Now let’s review the timeline for red deer. Spud initiated on Sunday 4th August 2019 and was planned to be ‘drilled to a total depth (TD) of 2,100 metres with 35 days estimated to reach TD’, so approx. Sunday 8th September 2019.
Assuming that Red Deer was operating at a similar pace to Heron drilling an average of 74m per day, it would have taken just under 29 days to reach TD which would then need to be followed by logging. Assuming that logging is an additional 2 days again (31 days for TD and logging), that brings us to Wednesday 4th September 2019.
Based on the above, I optimistically believe if they had encountered a duster, then it would be evident by now and reported, either way, news should be imminent IMO.
Admittedly, it is disheartening to see the share price suppressed following the news we just received, however, a short-term blip in what could potentially be huge in the coming weeks/months. I often remind myself of why I initially invested here and why I continue to hold…
1. The company is fully funded for this year drilling program with cash in the bank
2. The prospects being drilled have a significant potential upside, Heron being deemed as an appraisal well with recent results positively exceeding expectations…
3. Constant flow of news meaning that a duster could potentially equally be offset by success at 1 of ¾ drills
4. The investor relations and communications have been commendable, from RNS’s to social media updates
The list goes on and the fundamentals have not changed. By the end of next week, we will know the outcome of Red Deer and hopefully have an update on testing timelines for Heron. By the end of the week after we should start receiving updates on Gazelle rig up and spud. The potential upside supersedes the downside significantly IMO and I will be in for ride. Chins up ladies & gents, Looking forward to the next update in the coming days, GLA
Dozzawba - How dare you insult alwaysbeclosing... alwaysbeclosing is a hero. He/She dedicates all of their time on multiple boards encouraging PIs to sell their shares and/or not bother buying at all, while throwing around accusations that others are just ramping. A true Share Hero if you ask me... or 'Shero'
SYFreshPrince - simonpartridge1 was referring to the fact you stated £7.30. The price is in pence (7.3p), not in pounds. With regards to broker, it comes down to who ever can offer a solid service at a reasonable price. HL is pretty good from what I hear.
Target depth may be reached before then, we are expecting results from logging *BY* mid September. So Monday at the latest based on the wording from the RNS. Any day now IMO
"Results from the drilling and logging of the well are expected to be completed by mid-September 2019."
Proselenes - Completely agree, although a tone of excitement would not have gone a miss. It will also be interesting to see how the market reacts when the timelines for testing are announced. At current state, 30 days minimum could be a bit of a deterrent for some allowing some time for Red Deer announcement before making an investment decision.
I personally will be riding out and am looking for the updates to come in the 'not so distant' future. There is still a significant amount of potential upside with Red Deer, Gazelle and any other drills we may be able to squeeze into this years program. Heron is just the beginning and its already looking promising. All IMO. GLA
Didn't need to go through 144 posts... first 3 pages of your posts are absolute trash with nothing but warnings about derampers and price drops across multiple boards. Happy to have a meaningful debate with anyone who has a negative out take on the company, providing there is some substance behind the opinion.
Simply stating everyone on the board is ramping without providing any real justification as to why and clearly demonstrating 0 knowledge about the current state of affairs implies you have you're own agenda. Fortunately, you have made it completely transparent by demonstrating it repeatedly.
All it takes is a few seconds of scrolling through someones posting history to be able to determine whether there is any substance behind their posts or not. In 'alwaysbeclosing's case, it becomes immediately apparent that all he/she does is put a negative spin on any share board they post on.
It raises the question of whether you are even invested in anything or just like to talk rubbish with absolutely 0 substance. If you are going to de-ramp, at least do the minimal amount of research required to give you some credibility. I wont waste my time responding to your rouge statements and accusations as its clear you know nothing about this company.