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Based on the slight delay on Heron (proposed mid July - announced 19th July), we should see news on Red deer by the end of this week. Either way, PM have not yet given a reason to question their schedule during the current drill program. On the contrary, they have done a great job at meeting deadlines and communicating with investors throughout.
My predictions (based on performance thus far)... Red Deer spud news by the end of this week (2nd August 2019) with Heron results to follow by 16th August 2019. All IMO of course... Watch this space ;)
Obelix - Judging by the time between the pics posted on their twitter page, rig mobilisation/installation images were posted on 11th July 2019 with spud news released on 19th July 2019 (total of 7 days from rig assembly to spud). Assume that the rig will take 3-4 days to assemble, 1 day to transport followed by another 7 days until spud... You're looking at a total of 12-13 days (call it 2 weeks).
I still believe that we will receive news on Heron by the 16th August 2019 and Gazelle will spud by the first weeks of September (including contingencies), all IMO of course but also aligns with companies proposed timelines.
SuperRoty - Although I would conventionally agree with your theory, one of the reasons I invested here is because PM stated they are full funded and with 3 drills happening sequentially within close proximity with Heron being over 75% COS, I personally doubt fund raising will occur prior to results.
That being said... This is AIM and I acknowledge that it is still a possibility. We are now less than 1 week away from Red Deer spud news and I anticipate Heron 1 results will be with us by the end of week 3 - August.
I wonder how much they had already drilled when they released the news... The photo of the rig looks great
https://twitter.com/Petro_Matad/status/1152108123768918016
With regards to red deer, 'Mobilisation of the Company's second contracted rig to the Red Deer-1 location is ongoing with a targeted spud date before the end of July'. I expect to see news end of this week/early next week. More than happy to wait!
Eyes on the prize... Those who were in this solely for a spike on spud news were setting themselves up for disappointment from the off set... Although a rise would have been welcomed, it should not have been expected. The game changing news is scheduled to arrive within 40 days from now. I anticipate we will see a gradual rise in preparation for results...
PM have stuck with the proposed timelines so far and have been doing a great job with keeping the market updated. I am personally pleased with the progress to fate and am looking forward to potentially game changing news in the coming month. Until then, I will be taking blissful's prescription of kicking back and enjoying the sun (even though its raining in London at the moment...). Have a great weekend all!
They have already stated they are fully funded for the 2019 drill program, also, if they were to raise funds prior to Heron results it would shatter market confidence. If any of the 3 sites are successful then PM will be generating revenue before the end of the year.
I believe Heron is key to the success of PM and the SP. As stated *up to* 40 days away before we find out and I strongly believe this will be closer to mid August than the end of August as the 40 days includes contingencies. All IMO of course. Until then, looking forward to confirmation of spud on Red Deer in under a week and a half!
This is excellent news and improve sentiment as the company has proven it is on track with the proposed timelines. Red Deer is still targeting an end of July spud date and it appears as though rig mobilisation has already been initiated.
Also, after reading the RNS, it looks like 40 days is the expected maximum and we could receive news before then if all goes to plan! Exciting times... GLA!
Lets put things into prospective... The tweet released on Thursday 11th July 2019 with images stated that the 'Rig mobilisation underway at Heron-1' with a series of images. It has now been 4 working days since then (6 if they decided to work through the weekend) with a full on site team engaged with mobilisation.
I'm not sure what additional requirements there are post mobilisation (i.e. equipment test and health & safety sign off etc...) however, presume these would not take long if any. I personally expect spud news as early as tomorrow with end of this week still being a reasonable turn around time. I do however agree that if we do not receive anything in the coming days we may see some panic sellers arise. Just another opportunity to top up at a cheaper price for me... Nothing has changed, spud news immanent IMO
russukarian - Always nice to have some balance, however, worth noting that approx 14 days after Heron 1 spuds, Red Deer is scheduled to release the same news (leaving 26 days). Finally, as quoted by MB, “Drilling and logging results expected before the end of August.”.
With this much news and activity, I do not see the SP stagnating *much* while we await:
- Any day now... Spud at Heron 1
- End of July - Spud at Red Deer
- End of August - Completion of drilling program and logging at Heron 1
- Beginning of September - Relocation of rig from Heron 1 to Gazelle and Spud
- Mid September - Completion of drilling program and logging at Red Deer
- End of September - Completion of drilling program and logging at Gazelle
That's all within the next two and a half months and excludes further plans for the next drill program. Between RNS's, social media updates and other streams of communications, we are in for quite a ride IMO.
talco - Welcome on board... Far from late, they haven't even released news on first spud yet. If all goes as planned this is only the beginning. I anticipate we will receive spud news on Heron by EOB Wednesday, then its all systems go at red deer IMO. Good luck!
They seem to be all over twitter today, at this stage its almost end of working day in Mongolia (about 6pm local time). Latest Twitter post:
"The safety of our workforce, including employees and contractors, is our priority at #MATD. Here the DQE team is carefully overseeing the mud pump being installed at Heron-1"
https://twitter.com/Petro_Matad/status/1149257166685179905
Excellent progress being made
Obelix - Have to agree with CaptainStanley on this one. Considering that the share price was as low as approx 1.85p in December, those lucky enough to buy in at those levels will be sitting on 300% - 400% profit at the current price. I fully expect consolidation at these levels whether its investors top slicing or completely selling out to bank profits. The fact that we continue to rise through this period indicates how strong sentiment currently is with the company.
They haven't even announced spud of the first well and we have already broken past 9p... I am personally satisfied with the progress the way the company has managed this years program to date. Expecting to see spud news on Heron 1 early next week with Red Deer rig mobilisation kicking off week beginning 22nd July 2019. All IMO of course... GLA
Oversold? With nothing potentially happening here this year I wonder how much cash they will burn through paying themselves to twiddle their thumbs by January 2020... Might consider buying back in when it dips below 1p, will be worth a punt then. That being said, hope it turns around for all the true investors, never enjoy watching folk lose money on the back of an incompetent BOD.
Obelix - Red Deer - Spud expected before the end of July, hoping for results in early September from the drilling and logging of Red Deer. Based on their twitter feed, prep work has already been completed for Red Deer and next step is rig mobilisation. I anticipate this will be announced the week after next.
blissful - You beat me to it! Once again excellent to know that the company are on track with the proposed time frames. Rig should be fully mobilised by early next week with spud initiated on Heron 1 as anticipated! Looking forward to next rig mobilisation before in the coming weeks...
Cormie - Still looking strong at the moment, R2 on the 4 hour is 8.46 which we have comfortably broken past, next resistance is at 9.61 (R2 is 9.07 on the 1 day). TA is looking strong and with multiple news imminent we are looking at the perfect storm. Also, noticed there was some consolidation yesterday (which is expected at these levels) with a seller off loading approx 1m shares in 250k chunks. Seems to be out of the way now so onward and upwards!
Working day almost done in Mongolia now, I personally think news will land on Monday next week which marks mid July, however, I would welcome it if it came sooner! GLA
Certainly hope so! Looks like we have a seller off loading 250k tranches. Once that's out of the way its onward and upwards. News expected any day now... I anticipate a steady rise into the weekend with spud news on Monday but it could be sooner.
2019 4 well programme 286 MMbo mean prospective recoverable resources. Approx 25 Mmbo of which coming from Heron 1 which has been labelled as an appraisal well with over 75% COS. Current Mcap is tiny when you factor the above in...