Member Info for NAV_Mike

@Supuser You are asking the wrong guy mate. I feel like rational thought has left the building when it comes to HBR.

Despite what the doomsayers espouse, HBR isnt a basket case with 475k bpd production and good quality/low cost debt. I would have yield considerations alone would have supported the price in the run up to xd, but it seems even that has gone out the window today

Another pair of large matched transactions to inflate the volume - 1.463m @ £204.90 from around 3pm

Maybe they will just announce the result when its all completed? Tender offer closes on 27.03

Supuser - I honestly dont know. According to the debt profile in the latest presentation, its not the nearest term maturity, or the largest. Refinancing into a different currency? Can obtain a better rate on newere debt? As usual we will be the last to know

Ive been observing for a while to see how much longer they will keep people buying below mid (to make it appear a sell) when all they have to do drop the visible offer price and normality could be resumed

Its all a bit tinfoil hat stuff, but this is AIM so anything goes I guess

PS - 250k trade looks a buy or a very generous sell?

Its down toward the bottom of page 2 now....

https://www.fox44news.com/business/press-releases/cision/20250320LN41660/harbour-energy-plc-announces-offer-to-purchase-for-cash-any-and-all-of-its-outstanding-5%C2%BD-senior-notes-due-2026/

I wonder if they will RNS the result of the tender offer to repurchase the 5.5% 2026 bonds that was posted on here last week?

Would have thought it was a significant enough event to need an RNS, both for the result, and for details of how they finance it

Youre absolutely correct of course, but the 'average' PI doesnt have access to the SETS book and its those AT trades that have hammered us lower for a week.

Unless you are saying those trades are city types reacting to O trade selling? Sorry dont buy that on the trades going through last week. Some days the % of AT trades in SEE is really low, but over the last week its risen hugely

Well its hard not to conclude (by virtue of the bid being hit by large AT trades) that one or more of our larger holders has decided to exit the building.

PM effectively saying come back in six months was an absolutey disastrous thing to say in an interview. Perhaps mitsubishi might take pity and swallow us up out of petty cash?

Ive been out since before market open and Im absolutely dumbfounded to see the price action today

Brent up, market neutral and all we have to blame the drop on is a broker reduction to a price 40% higher than where we stand?

Ive unforunately been in these for longer than I care to remember, and its starting to feel like dark forces working in the background again. No thats not a conspiracy theory, just reminiscing on previous times where the price took on a mind of its own.

Christ who saw this coming when the Wintershall deal was announced...

Looks like the short only showed up because they breached the disclosure limit. Previously they were on 0.49% so we have no way of knowing how long they have been lurking just below.

Very unlikely to be a new position, but as I have said before you can do significant damage even with what looks like a small short like this- its circa 7m shares! So if multiple funds do it and hide below the 0.5% limit it could well explain why our drop has been so savage

On the (mistaken?) assumption that AT trades are coming from market pros, they are once again taking every opportunity to hit the bid and take us closer to 2p

Are these our larger holders finally giving up, or city traders getting this as low as they can for some reason?

I think nearly all the trades reported today as sells are actually buys

Being quoted a spread 12.025 - 12.30

Thank you so much to whoever left us with the kind of overhang that seems to need dynamite to shift

....sorry should have said also

A future warning sign would be any hint that they couldnt get takers for new bonds, or if the coupon they had to offer started to rise materially

Now that the bulk of HBRs debt is in the form of investmnt grade debt, its a very different animal to a company stuck with ongoing massive bank loans

The new Harbor only has to focus on future maturity dates and whether it can repay or refinance them with new bonds. Its the way oil majors operate and why so much was made of the debt now being investment grade

Gotta wait for another batch of de;ayed trades I guess

Despite the buying, the offer price is actually nudging a little lower.,...arrgh

Up to 1:30, more buys than sells in a very thin market...unless theres more delayed trades to show up

I know you are right, but in my case the well is dry now. I thought I was in luck last week topping up at 13.7, and for a couple of hours I was in profit.....

Then the slide began (again)

I hope the BoD are not so completely tone deaf as to not realise they need to get the news flowing or actually buy some shares out of their own pocket...at market price

With the share at 2.2p bid and the buy/sell ratio relentlessly bad each day, he will need balls of steel to stand up in front investors and justify his existence

Unless of course, everyone there is dreadfully British and polite lol

Well Im currently seeing a spread of 12.01 - 12.225

So despite all the buying you can still buy below mid, suggesting their is a sizeable overhang in the market. Thanks I guess to our new insti investor, who couldnt wait to take their money and run

It also means the buy/sell reporting is probably significantly askew

Jeez wept....non stop AT trades against the bid