Member Info for NAV_Mike

There was a buyback yesterday Smartie - 550k at £2.87

I agree....if thats a major source of the selling now ended its 24m shares less to hit the market

As for the swaps, without knowing the details of the settlement, its hard to judge

LOL well theres one mistake for a start - swaps reduction is 28.5m

Its the total holding thats reduced by 52.5m

Blimey thats a massive change in the BoA holding

By my *** packet calcs, I make it 24m shares less and a reduction in the swaps held of circa 52.5m

Feel free to point out any fcuk ups on my part lol, but if im right thats a significan change

From my spreadsheet that is recording the RNS details of the buyback, I have average VWAP for last week of £2.655

Given the price spiked only yesterday I think its fair to assume this 5% rule would stop buybacks until around Thursday providing we can hold current levels

Shares repurchased : 4426079
Average VWAP : £2.583
Closing MCap : £2.298bn

Notional profit to date : £799k (nice turn round from last week)

Only issue I have is that Taconic appeared on the disclosed shorts list back in October 22 when the price was £4+ so they have a fair way to go before they feel any 'pain'

However they do have a lot of profit to protect so will they start to close, or do their best to snuff out upward momentum?

I wonder if we are in the market, seeing as we are already active in the region?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/5-Billion-In-Upstream-Assets-Is-Up-For-Grabs-In-Southeast-Asia.html

Noticeable jump in the number of shares repurchased today - 560k

Previously highest number was 295k

Their sell-bots certainly sprang into action to snuff out the upwards momentum 1st thing :(

Shares reourchased 2185577
Average VWAP £2.507
Closing Bid £2.442
Notional Loss £141k
MCAP £2.036bn

Until todays selloff, buyback was showing a profit....now 6.5p per share underwater

Shares reourchased 2185577
Average VWAP £2.507
Closing Bid

Slight increase in the amount boughtback today - 295k instead of 280k

Perhaps they worked out that 280k each day wouldnt clear the buyback by year end

Well....using close of market exchange rates, they are spending around $850k per day, so around 235 days to clear $200m

Perhaps they had calculated a daily amount of shares that would clear the buyback by year end, however at current sp levels I think it would over run the 31st Dec

Id like to know how actively their broker montors when to buy, or whether theyve just left an order to buy evenly throught the day

1.120m bought back so far with average VWAP of £2.48, so not too far underwater currently even after recent volatility

Current mcap is £2.051bn

Those 2m shares were sold through the market very swiftly after that bews article was published

If you look back over the holdings RNSs near that time, you will see I think three batches that when added up, come to exactly 2m shares

Could it be they have had to recalculate their % holding in light of the reduced shares in issue?

Got fed up with the ***-packet calcs last time HBR did a buyback, so have started a spreadsheets to record daily buybacks, VWAPs and exchange rate

This in turn enables a daily mcap calculation to be done taking into account the reducing number of shares (and share price lol)

Assuming HBR remove another 280k from the market today, mcap will be getting perilously close the £2bn market (approx £2.05bn at £2.45)

If shorters do eventually want to close, the pool of shares to do so from will shrink by around 65-70m this year if the buyback continues at this rate

I loathe that non-entity Hunt, but on reflection, yesterday wasnt the day for announcing a price floor to the energy levy - not when he was crowing about helping families. It would have diluted his 'message' by giving people the chance to say he cared more about greedy rich oil companies (lol)

My gut feel is that he may announce something when we get nearer to July as energy bills will supposedly reduce. Not that I trust a word he says