Member Info for natemc

Natural bit of resistance here at 1p while some of the placing shards are flipped for their 10% - won’t be long until mopped up then the ascent can continue 📈

£4.8m of BTC an the company produces £6k of revenue a year!? This should be trading at a mcap of circa £4m based on other treasury companies performance. This will fall much further.

What a joke - £170m mcap but paying nearly £1m in bod salaries alone - for what exactly - all he’s doing is raising cash and buying bitcoin 😂 the trading business only has revenue of £200k a year! Their little hobby co wouldn’t be worth diddly squat without the bitcoin - talk about getting carried away with your own self importance.

These are better intercepts here, but it’s inevitable they’ll need to raise before the next round of development which usually come at a sizeable discount here - will keep an eye here and possibly look to re-enter post raise

This and 80M are imo the two tickers with biggest growth prospects over the next 6-12 months.

@Rach - thread below

“We know the oil is there. The question is, ‘Where is it trapped?’” Price said. “This is not a one in 10 shot. This is a very high percentage of discovering what could be one of the largest oilfields in the world.”

Https://x.com/80mileplc/status/2011715694950248835?s=46

If MET1 can go from 2.5p to 55p in 3 months, then anything is possible here with the quality of the assets. I’m locked in and going nowhere - this will not be another one that I wish I’d held onto for longer because I bottled it and took my early profits.

That’s more like it

I thought you said you had been investing for the last 18 years long? It doesn’t come across as though you have - surely you were expecting a healthy consolidation like this before the next move up. Look at any 5 / 10 / 50 / 100 baggers - you think they all went up in a straight line - come on man you need to work on your nerves if you’re going to get scared out of your position on the first consolidation. Apologies if that sounds fairly direct.

2.2p - 3.0p - just for Ferrandina plant alone - never mind Jameson or Disco - those are thrown in for free currently!

Part 2

5️⃣ What this means for valuation & share price

Let’s convert this into equity value.

A) Apply a conservative multiple

Renewable fuel plants typically trade at:

6–8× net earnings (low growth)

8–12× net earnings (strategic / transition assets)

Using 8× on €16m:

Enterprise value ≈ €128m

Convert to GBP (~0.85 FX):

≈ £109m

B) Compare to current market cap

Item Value

Current market cap ~£35–40m

Base-case plant value ~£109m

Upside vs today ~3×

Even discounting execution risk heavily, the plant alone appears to justify well above current market value.

6️⃣ Share-price translation (rough but useful)

With ~5bn shares outstanding:

Market cap Share price

£40m (today) ~0.8p

£80m ~1.6p

£110m ~2.2p

£150m (bull case) ~3.0p

⚠️ Key risks (important to be honest)

MOUs are not contracts (yet)

Ramp-up delays would push revenue right

Working capital requirements can dilute shareholders

Feedstock availability & policy risk (EU biofuel rules)

That said: once tolling revenue is locked, downside risk reduces materially.

✅ Bottom line

Base-case steady-state profit: ~€16m p.a.

RNS-implied upside: €24m+ p.a.

Current market cap: pricing in execution failure, not success

Asymmetric setup: downside limited, upside substantial if delivery occurs

Part 1

I’ll build a clear, assumption-based operating model for the Ferrandina biofuels plant, using only what has been disclosed in RNS/MOUs, plus conservative industry benchmarks. I’ll also show sensitivities so you can see what really matters.

I’ll structure this in four parts:

Key facts from RNS (hard inputs)

Operating assumptions (clearly stated)

Base-case financial model (2026 steady state)

What this implies for valuation & share price

1️⃣ Hard inputs from RNS (non-negotiable facts)

From the last 6 months of RNS releases:

Item RNS-disclosed

Plant location Ferrandina, Italy

Ownership 100% owned by 80 Mile PLC

Permitted capacity 150,000 tonnes per annum

Near-term operating mode Tolling + own-account production

Tolling agreement 80,000 tpa (~50% capacity)

Indicative profit from tolling ~€8m net p.a. (company guidance)

Target restart Dec 2025

Commercial production Jan 2026

Products Biodiesel (FAME), SAF/HVO over time

➡️ Importantly: the €8m net profit figure is management’s own guidance, not analyst speculation.

2️⃣ Operating assumptions (explicit & conservative)

I’ll split the plant into two revenue streams, which matches the RNS language.

A) Tolling business (low risk, high visibility)

Volume: 80,000 tpa

Revenue model: fixed processing margin

Margin risk: low (feedstock & price risk sits with customer)

B) Merchant production (higher upside, higher risk)

Volume: 70,000 tpa (remaining capacity)

Product: biodiesel initially

Sales price: market-linked

Market price assumptions (conservative, not peak-cycle)

Biodiesel selling price: €1,050 / tonne

Variable production cost (feedstock, energy, logistics): €900 / tonne

Gross margin: €150 / tonne

(For context: EU biodiesel margins have frequently exceeded this during tighter markets.)

3️⃣ Base-case financial model (steady-state 2026)

🔹 A) Tolling income (from RNS guidance)

Item Value

Volume 80,000 tpa

Net profit €8.0m

Margin per tonne ~€100

(This aligns exactly with company statements.)

🔹 B) Merchant biodiesel production

Item Calculation €

Volume 70,000 t

Selling price 70,000 × €1,050 73.5m

Variable costs 70,000 × €900 (63.0m)

Gross profit 10.5m

Fixed costs / overhead (2.5m)

Net profit 8.0m

🔹 C) Combined plant economics (base case)

Metric €m

Tolling net profit 8.0

Merchant net profit 8.0

Total plant net profit 16.0m per year

This is below the company’s implied “€24m at full capacity” upside — deliberately conservative.

4️⃣ Sensitivity analysis (what really moves the numbers)

If utilisation slips to 80%

Total profit ≈ €12–13m

If biodiesel margin improves by €50/tonne

+€3.5m net profit

If SAF/HVO replaces 30% of output later

SAF margins can be 2–3× biodiesel

Plant profit could exceed €25–30m p.a.

The MM’s were just rebalancing their books - we will be flying again soon - could even be today if these Chucky buys persist

Some decent stakes being taken now

£800k of buys so far today - must be getting to close to placing shares being cleared then brakes will come off. So much upside from here - a rare gem this one.

7️⃣ What would justify a higher price?

To move from 28p → 50–70p, the market needs:

1. Updated NI 43-101 resource

2. Restart PEA / economic study

3. Clear financing pathway

4. Evidence dilution won’t be catastrophic

Without those, price may chop sideways.

⸻

🎯 Final, honest takeaway

• Current price (28p) is not stupid

• Upside exists, but it’s now execution-driven

• 2–3× upside is realistic if milestones hit

• 5–10× requires:

• gold >$2,000

• controlled dilution

• exploration success

This has evolved from “hidden gem” → high-quality, high-risk restart story already partly priced in.

The Board has awarded Mr Stockbridge options over 2,500,000 shares with an exercise price of 0.1 pence and vesting for 3 years from 31 December 2025.

Why on earth are we awarding options to anyone at one sixth of the SP? An 80% discount - total joke