The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I can't see things being back to normal by February. Is that realistic?
Also all the chatter seems to be for a summer move for WW84.
Sounds like a great idea, but I don't understand how this can work of it's only 75% accurate.
@parmxz Could you share a source for the increase in attendance as eerything I've been hearing has been the opposite.
I think Disney might want a few of the big urban theatres, but not the whole estate.
They also called cinema 'legacy distribution' recently - so it's just not part of their plan. Plus they would have a nightmare with monopolies regulation in Europe.
Why is it recession proof? Since the last recession it's been repositioned as a premium product, so that old trope is untested with modern cinema.
I'm happy to admit when I'm wrong, and Cineworld has bounced back much harder than I thought it would on vaccine news that was much earlier and better than I thought it would ever be. I almost went in at 25p, but I have no regrets as other investments have done well this week.
I also know the cinema industry, and this is only one hurdle for Cineworld to overcome. It will take a long time for the industry to recover - and that recovery will be taking place alongside a possible recession.
The industry has had various battles for decades; theatrical windows; falling attendance; home entertainment. These battles aren't over, but the exhibitors are weaker than ever.
@PrayFor - You do know they have to pay the studio every time someone uses their unlimited membership? The Unlimited pass will be an albatross for Cineworld, and I can't imagine they can continue it if things get as busy as you think it will.
My feeling is that the industry has too many cinemas and too many screens. I think this will be evened out either by every operator reducing their estate size, or, more likely either AMC or Cineworld going bust. They've both taken different strategies during the pandemic, but at the end of the day I think it will come down to Mooky or Arun making a couple of good calls that swing the balance. Personally I think the urban focus of Cineworld in the US might be the winning ticket, but who knows.
Definitely a share for the Bravehearts!
Have a good one crumpets.
@crumpets
The two biggest exhibitors have over $10B in debt - even more with lease liabilities. This isn't a healthy, sustainable business model.
I think 2024 is realistic for things to be more stable. There are a lot of films waiting for release - which is obviously great - but then there is going to be a lack of films because of stalled productions. And then I think there will be a period of wound-licking by Hollywood as it works out how to proceed.
I think once everything has panned out things will look a lot different, with less screens, smaller budgets, but hopefully a stable system that works better for cinemas, studios and streamers.
@hosai Do you think that Cineworld would have closed if Bond was released? Surely that was the straw.
There's been a lot of hope that WW84 would be released in 2020. When Bond moved it was a huge blow, and this is just as big a film - so I stand by my words.
I thought things had got more civil on here but apparently not.
'anyone with a brain is betting that the movie moves into 2021'.
https://deadline.com/2020/11/ryan-reynolds-free-guy-gal-gadot-death-on-the-nile-1234610023/
Please don't treat me like someone who lives to see the price of CINE stock bounce all over. I'm just sharing relevant news to this BB.
A couple of somewhat smaller films have just been moved to 2021 - namely Death on the Nile and Free Guy.
Whilst these were hardly going to be saviours of cinema there seems to be a lot of talk about WW84 being moved as well, which will be a huge blow.
Every time there's a delay they have to spend money to re-market it for when it does come out. I don't know about WW84, but it's been speculated that MGM have lost $30M in marketing for Bond so far.
There has to be a point for every studio where they just need to start getting money back for these huge investments - even if it's at a loss. The question at the moment is whether they are going to do this via cinemas or streaming.
I think it's more likely than not that this will be delayed. But being Devil's advocate there are reasons it might not be.
- Warner Bros may be happy to let this be the only big budget film in cinemas for a couple of months. They've said they see it as a marathon, not a sprint.
- The big US markets are allowing more cinemas to open.
- WB might feel that money in the bank is better than the future possibilities. Cases are rising in the US, so this might be the best time to release WW84 for six months.
@Ianharding - you may well be right.
AMC have sold off one of their European chains, and have done a deal with Universal to get access to money from streaming. I'm not saying those are good decisions even in the short term, but it might explain why investors are backing them a fraction more than Cineworld.
But MGM don't make $1B from Bond. It's probably nearer $100M once everyone else has taken their cut - but I'm not sure what their deal with Universal looks like.
If you read the whole article it's not quite as clear cut as your title suggests, and is talking specifically about Bond and MGM, not the whole market. Bond is not like any other film out there. It has multiple partners involved in production, distribution and the franchise as a whole.
One thing it mentions is that MGM are burning through $1M a month on the interest for money borrowed for the production, which will really be eating into their profits.
If WW84 moves it shows that the studios are losing faith in theatrical.
One option might be for WB to push ahead with it, but get cinemas to agree to a really short window and/or reduced percentage. Or they might push for simultaneous theatrical and streaming release with some kind of revenue share with cinemas on the streaming.
At least with Tenet WB showed that they're willing to try a theatrical release.