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Apologies, you are right. This is the best July box office this year.
Except for 2016, 2013 & 2011. And probably all the other non-covid years this century if you adjust for inflation.
I mean it does say that revenue is down 16% on 2019, but let's not let facts get in the way, hey.
It's a set amount per use. It's a hard balance to strike, but as always it will favour the studios.
The article is about the UK and Ireland, so it's not relevant to this conversation. Also, it's based on a report by the FDA so is biased. And most importantly there are no numbers in it at all to back up a return to pre pandemic levels of attendance or turnover.
It is simply a fact that 2023 is a long way behind 2019, and it's a universe away from 2018. It's not going to catch up as the films that are going to be released this year aren't strong enough.
If you're serious about discussing the cinema business you have to be honest. You have to consider inflation. You have to rise above the PR nonsense of box office numbers and consider admission numbers as a key metric.
Nobody with any sense believes that 2023 will catch up with 2019.
2019 had a slow start. Monthly biggest films from May to December 2019 are as follows:
Avengers: Endgame
Toy Story 4
The Lion King
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
It Chapter 2
Joker
Frozen 2
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
And you honestly, hand on heart think that 2023 has a lineup like that? And this doesn't include inflation that must be pulling those numbers back by nearly 20%.
2023 is currently tracking 18.9% below 2019 and 32% behind 2018. That's not including inflation.
I don't use the word lightly, but this post title is a lie.
'A group of lenders that includes Avenue Capital Management, Jefferies Leveraged Credit Products LLC and Greywolf Capital Management unveiled their proposal in court filings and a bankruptcy hearing Thursday. The creditors argue Cineworld’s current exit financing plan unfairly benefits a majority lender group they were blocked from joining.'
US Box office is a third down versus 2018, so it's objectively not back.
The studios are being built by and for the streaming companies.
In my opinion cinema will never die. I said that it's not a Golden Age.
What franchise is there that can run for another 5 films or more? What upcoming film is going to kickstart 10 years of regular releases that hit a billion or more?
20 years ago we had Potter and LotR running together. F&F ran alongside and beyond them. Black Knight and Spiderman started the superhero bandwagon. Bond had its most successful run ever over 5 films. Hunger Games was a pretty unexpected monster. There was X-Men, Mission Impossible, Minions, various Pixar hits, Frozen, live action Disney, Pirates of the Caribbean, Avatar, Star Wars, Marvel.
How is that not the Golden Age? How can the next 20 years be better? Most of what I've listed is either finished, on hold or on its way out with nothing obvious that's going to fill those enormous shoes.
WaffenBurret - "And your recent evidence for this is - where?"
The last 20 years have been like nothing else in the history of cinema. Wave after wave of successful franchises have built an expectation of several, billion dollar movies every year. And inflation will help make sure there are still going to be billion dollar movies. On a side note, NATO haven't released average ticket price data for several years, but some estimate that it's over 20% higher than 4 years ago.
The problem is the state of these franchises that made up the nearly 50 movies in the last 20 years that broke the billion dollar mark.
- DC is being restarted, so may or may not be a winner
- A potential restart of Lord of the Rings is being talked about, but who knows where it will land
The Wizarding World has stalled
- No firm plans for Bond
- Maverick was a hit, and may lead to a Top Gun revival, but Tom Cruise is 60, so it would need a new lead. And although not in the billion dollar club, Mission Impossible surely can't carry on with a retirement-age Cruise.
- Pirates of the Caribbean has nothing firm planned
- Fast and Furious is coming to an end, although I'm sure there might be some spinoffs that still do well.
- Transformers is an interesting one, and leads on nicely from Fast and Furious as this shows the problem for CW. Transformers and F&F made a bucket load in China, a market that CW have, and will never have, a part of.
- Toy Story will always be popular, but I don't think Pixar is as strong as it once was.
- Disney remakes will always do well, and helped by inflation could always hit some billion dollar films.
- Minions is one of the strongest animated franchises, along with Frozen that could always do a billion.
- Avatar looks like the one rising star, and with at least 2 more on the way, and countless spinoff possibilities it could be the new Marvel.
- Star Wars. There are currently no firm plans for any films.
- Marvel is the big make-or-break franchise and at the moment it's not doing great, with a pretty neutral set of films in the last couple of years, and some real stinkers.
When you look down this list there are so many that are based off of existing IP's and when the well dries up there's not much coming through to replace it. Cinema as it currently stands needs a regular release of massive films. That just isn't possible at the moment as there aren't enough consistent franchises that people have bought into.
This can of course change, and the seeds might already be planted, but to say this is the Golden Age of Cinema is way off.
I agree that cinema goes through waves of popularity, but I think everything points to a downward trend, not moving into a new Golden Age.
The last 20 years have been like nothing else in the history of cinema. Wave after wave of successful franchises have built an expectation of several, billion dollar movies every year. And inflation will help make sure there are still going to be billion dollar movies. On a side note, NATO haven't released average ticket price data for several years, but some estimate that it's over 20% higher than 4 years ago.
The problem is the state of these franchises that made up the nearly 50 movies in the last 20 years that broke the billion dollar mark.
- DC is being restarted, so may or may not be a winner
- A potential restart of Lord of the Rings is being talked about, but who knows where it will land
The Wizarding World has stalled
- No firm plans for Bond
- Maverick was a hit, and may lead to a Top Gun revival, but Tom Cruise is 60, so it would need a new lead. And although not in the billion dollar club, Mission Impossible surely can't carry on with a retirement-age Cruise.
- Pirates of the Caribbean has nothing firm planned
- Fast and Furious is coming to an end, although I'm sure there might be some spinoffs that still do well.
- Transformers is an interesting one, and leads on nicely from Fast and Furious as this shows the problem for CW. Transformers and F&F made a bucket load in China, a market that CW have, and will never have, a part of.
- Toy Story will always be popular, but I don't think Pixar is as strong as it once was.
- Disney remakes will always do well, and helped by inflation could always hit some billion dollar films.
- Minions is one of the strongest animated franchises, along with Frozen that could always do a billion.
- Avatar looks like the one rising star, and with at least 2 more on the way, and countless spinoff possibilities it could be the new Marvel.
- Star Wars. There are currently no firm plans for any films.
- Marvel is the big make-or-break franchise and at the moment it's not doing great, with a pretty neutral set of films in the last couple of years, and some real stinkers.
When you look down this list there are so many that are based off of existing IP's and when the well dries up there's not much coming through to replace it. Cinema as it currently stands needs a regular release of massive films. That just isn't possible at the moment as there aren't enough consistent franchises that people have bought into.
This can of course change, and the seeds might already be planted, but to say this is the Golden Age of Cinema is way off.
@Tegop - I've heard some rubbish on this forum, but you take the biscuit with this:
'I can show you a clip of Rocky Balboa training in the Mountain to the Tune of Eye of the Tiger. That wouldn't make me a boxer.'
There is no such clip and you know it. You are clearly de-ramping the lesser known Survivor song, 'Burning Heart', which is the song he trains to in the mountains of Siberia in Rocky IV.
RetailInvestor There are bars, restaurants, coffee shops and at-seat service at loads of chains. That's the premium offering I'm talking about.
There's a push towards premium formats too. It's all been about getting every customer to pay more for the experience, and to expand that experience into the meal before the film, and the drinks afterwards.
You may be able to get a cheap ticket to Vue, but that's not the global trend. NATO haven't released the average ticket price information for a few years, but the general feeling is that ticket prices in the US has gone up 20% in the last 2 years. That's a big chunk of change.
This is a great for the industry if they can sustain the number of guests, but as I said, this is all untested in a recession.
Cinema in its current form is untested in an economic downturn. It's true that cinema always did well in recessions as it was a cheap night out. But cinemas have made a conscious effort over the last decade or so to become a premium experience.
They have worked hard to not be a cheap night out.
How that sits with competing activities, and what those activities are isn't that clear cut.
My best guess is that cinema will keep moving the same way it's been moving - towards big budget blockbusters shown on big formats to big audiences. I think it will become more like a theatre experience, with a higher price but more spectacle. And probably fewer films that run for longer.
Whether this works for the actual cinema operators is another question, but I think revolution rather than evolution is needed.
Hexam - I think there are so many unusual factors with Avatar that it's really hard to know how much is being made by anyone. A bias towards premium formats, long running time, lower than average US takings compared to RoW, COVID-affected release in China.
I think my point really is that these big box office numbers don't really help Cine. What they need is lots of these films, week after week, to make the big bucks they need to survive.
Hexam. Thanks, and a fair point. I don't really know the US market, but Avatar heavily skews to premium screens, so many smaller chains will miss out on this. By how much, I don't know, but I think you're right that 30% is too high for their share.
I kind of think of that as a fixed income as I assume ads aren't usually booked against specific films, but demographics.
And even if ad costs were increased for Avatar, the long running time would reduce the number of showing, and therefore ads.
$600m in the US. Cine have about a third of screens, so $200m revenue. 50% goes to the studio, so $100m from tickets. Probably a bit more profit from concessions, so maybe $250m profit.
RoW has been strong, but not necessarily where Cine have a presence. UK has done $60m+ so will has made a chunk for them. I think maybe the rest of Cine adds up to the UK total.
So my wild semi-informed guess is they made around $300m profit before running costs.
This shows the problem for cinemas at the moment - they need a stream of massive films to make good money.
I think women's football could be something to explore as it's a less boisterous crowd, and the matches are probably at a better time for cinemas to show.