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Cinemas have tried loads of things over the years - football, Formula 1, theatre, opera.
The problem is that the timings overlap with their core business of showing Hollywood blockbusters, so there's never been any real commitment to it.
Where to start.
The lenders were only happy with the debt levels because it was being used for acquisition - something that's now not happening. CINE were supposed to be the largest chain in the world. They'd get the best deals with distributors; the most revenue from every film. They would be able to close duplicate locations and squeeze out any independents that were still standing. Now they've just got the debt with no opportunity.
Cinema is a pretty low-profit industry. You can't just say a 10% drop in revenue equals a 10% drop in share price. That 10% represents a huge chunk of their profit.
And as for the debt Vs valuation now compared to 2020 - the difference is about $5B.
Putting the current position in perspective - it's like asking your bank for a 100000% mortgage to buy a house.
I think the only reason that there's money going into CINE from current lendors is because they're trying to move up the priority list of debtors. A list that shareholders are bottom of.
It's actually extremely unusual to have films moved around - it's only happened since Covid.
On an investment forum I think posts like this are really unhelpful. A list of films that are delayed and ready to release is one thing, but calling out the exact release date of Avatar 5 in 8 years is just daft. And what does that say about Cineworld that they think it should be on their website? They have literally no say in how or when any film on this list is released.
Frankly, this BB is just full of people who want to sing Coomb by ya to each other and pat each other on the back for being so much smarter than everyone else who've missed out on this multi-bagger of a share.
I've not seen a single post on Godzilla Vs. Kong going to streaming. Or the effect of WW84 on the theatrical window. Or how the industry will transition through the spring to get back up to full capacity.
It's all just nonsense like this, with no fact checking or debate.
I genuinely wish everyone well and hope this share gets to where you need it to be (unless you are shorting), but to be told how a release schedule works as defence against this nonsense is the last straw for me.
Good luck all.
I thought Peter Rabbit 2 had moved? It also seems strange to have films there that they won't be showing or that haven't even started production.
Maybe their web content team are furloughed.
May 28th
My wild look into the future ...
The virus starts to be controlled in March after a long winter. Hollywood keeps moving its biggest titles into the summer months hoping for things to be better then.
Small to medium size product gets bought up and moved to streaming services. Coming 2 America becomes Amazon's biggest ever hit and re-ignites Eddie Murphy's career. Amazon pledge $1B for him to write, direct and star in reboots of his classic films Trading Places, Beverly Hills Cop and Dr Dolittle.
MGM, however, are in trouble. They need the money from Bond to keep Barbara Broccoli in champagne and fur hats, but Cineworld - now the largest cinema operator in the world after the collapse of AMC during the winter, refuse to open.
Eventually, after weeks of negotiations, a deal is done. Bond will release globally on May 28th. In return for opening all its UK estate, and its 100 biggest US cinemas Cineworld negotiate 70% of box office. The deal includes only a 2 week window as the global streaming rights have been purchased for £500M in a controversial deal with the BBC.
Bond goes on to take $2B - partly helped by the announcement of John Boyega as the next Bond.
But sadly this is the end of not only Bond, but of Hollywood as we know it. The global recession bites, and the only thriving economy is New Zealand. Hollywood pivots and sends all it's films to streaming services, and starts work on films to attract the NZ dollar.
The biggest hits of 2022 are a reboot of Four Weddings and a Funeral starring Adam Woodyatt and a live action Shawn the Sheep, directed by John Favreau. The latter is by far the biggest NZ film ever with 98% of the population seeing it at least 3 times.
It finishes its 2 years at the top of the box office with a gross of $55.3K.
Spot on Ian. Bond is a beast of its own and currently only really thrives in a billion dollar cinematic environment.
I read a great description of this yesterday. Bond is MGM's golden egg, but it's the Broccoli's platinum egg.
This post is gold.
It may be fake, but I don't see why they'd bother.
https://ibb.co/Z1GjF5k
There's not going to be a big grand opening with the Queen cutting a ribbon as all cinemas in the world open their doors at the same moment.
This is going to be really hard for the industry because unless they wait until everywhere in the world is Covid free, they have to accept reduced audiences. There has to be a transition period where everyone is losing money in order to get things back up and running.
And everyone is going to want someone else to shoulder the loss. Hopefully there will be reasonable discussion between the main players to make it work, but there are definitely gaps forming between the different chains now.
The biggest question will be around the theatrical window. Will Cineworld change their tough stance no matter the cost? There will be other WW84 moments before this is over, and Cineworld have to decide what they're willing to do to keep the theatrical window.
I've seen an email from Mooky to Regal staff that says they're hoping to re-open late March.
I'm not sure if most people realize how early the cinema chains are involved in new developments.
But that's also why all this talk of screwing over the landlords is so short-term. They will need the trust of these same landlords if they are ever going to move forwards in the future.
I didn't mean to imply they couldn't renegotiate - just that interest isn't waived by the ban on evictions.
And your first hand knowledge is well noted. And that was for a square box I assume - not a cinema multiplex like Cineworld's landlords have to deal with!
Of course there will be interest on deferred rent - probably about 4%.
I'm afraid I can't find the article now, but back in March I read a well-balanced article about how landlords would have to shoulder a lot of the burden of Covid as they are the ones that will still have assets whatever happens, even if they lose income.
I suppose the unknown is what happens if the landlords go bust? Maybe local councils can step in like that have in some places in the past?
Certainly a pretty shallow bit of journalism.
Ian - do you have a link to Disney+ running at a loss? Genuinely interested to see where the spend is - I'm guessing marketing?
I hate analogies, but it's actually like saying Tesco's rely on people needing bacon.
Podcast - I'm not sure if it was a comment you made a few weeks ago about E-sports, but when I read it it was a lightbulb moment for me. That's exactly the type of thing I'm talking about, and the opportunity that's been missed because of the obsession with Hollywood.
Why don't the chains embrace E-sports, theatre, opera, live sports, national filmmakers, regional film makers, local film makers, parties, corporate events, live Q&A's, TV content, streaming content? Why not use their brand name to set up drive-ins, popup cinema, stadium events?
I'll tell you why - because it gets in the way of showing Hollywood films.
The one statistic that sums up both my frustration with cinema chains, but also my hope for its future prosperity is that average attendance at a screening is about 18%.
Even I wouldn't stoop so low as to use 2020 numbers :)
Attendance is often measured on a per capita basis to take into account a rising population. In the US that has reduced by 28% in the last 2 decades - up to 2019.
I'm happy to admit that per capita is only one way to measure things and that profit is all that matters, but my personal feeling is that all major cinema chains rely too heavily on Hollywood titles, and that that bubble will eventually burst.
Cinema attendance has been pretty solid and stable for 20 years in the UK. I think the worry for many in the industry is that it takes more and more blockbusters to keep these numbers up.
The bigger problem is the main market in the US that has declined quite a bit over recent times.
One of the massive draws of a streaming service is you don't have to advertise - your audience is looking for content. That will probably change as there are more streamers, but I doubt it will ever need to be as high.
@Bladey
I'm afraid I don't understand. You do know that the studio do almost all the advertising right?