Questor Column31 Oct 2014 06:49
Sell Next as growth slows:
The market was widely expecting a profit warning at Next after the company warned that sales had been hit by warm weather last month; and Questor wouldn’t be buying on the dip, as the shares are still looking overvalued. The company said sales growth was 5.4% during the third quarter to October 25, which was almost half the 10% growth that management was hoping for and short of market expectations for 6% growth. Across the business, it was Next Retail, the high street stores division that slowed the fastest, with third quarter sales growth down to 2.4%, from 5.8% in the year to date. Next Directory, the faster growing online and catalogue business, reported sales growth of 9.7% for the third quarter, down from 13.7% in the year to date. The current growth rates at Next Retail and Next Directory are a far cry from first half sales growth of 7.5% and 16.2% respectively. Next Retail contributes about 60% to total group sales, while Next Directory is about 40%. More worryingly, the guidance for the fourth quarter group sales growth was slashed from 4% to 1%. Another issue that could hinder growth at Next in the coming 12 months is the availability of credit, which would affect Next Directory sales. Next charges have an annual percentage rate of 25.99%, compared with the APR for a standard bank credit card of between 18% and 20%. Taking those factors together, it is difficult for Next shares to command the premium they do at present. Next is trading on about 16 times forecast earnings, which is an 18.5% premium to the wider retail sector on 13.5 times, and a 23% premium to Next’s own long-run average PE of about 13 times. Next at £64.15-20p Questor Says ‘Sell’.