FT12 Mar 2015 06:56
Negative energy:
Cairn Energy has been highlighting how senior Indian politicians recognise the “negative impact” of retrospective taxation on investor sentiment. Meanwhile, investors have been making their own negative impact on the oil explorer’s value after the group received a $1.6 billion tax bill from New Delhi. Cairn’s share price closed 16% lower on Wednesday, at 153.7p. This treaty says that, if the two sides cannot agree within six months, then the dispute goes to an international panel of three wise persons to reach a majority verdict. One arbitrator is appointed by each side, and the two then agree who the Chairman should be. The President of the International Court of Justice acts as backstop, just in case there is no outbreak of amity and sweet reason. For both parties, however, the most damaging feature of this tax bill is its element of surprise. It goes against the trend of recent Ministerial comment, suggesting that such public statements are not a reliable guide to the government’s views. As such, it exacerbates the unpredictability that is already part of the problem. Cairn insists that the Indian government can have recourse only to its Indian subsidiary, rather than the group as a whole. Even so, its current inability to sell its $700 million stake in Cairn India, which analysts had pencilled in for this year, is bad news enough. When Arun Jaitley, India’s finance Minister, visits the U.K. this week, he should be glad he is travelling to London, not Edinburgh.