HL research on Next19 Mar 2015 21:46
Under Lord Wolfson and newly retired David Keens, Next became a machine that ground out fashion, profits and share price growth in seemingly equal measures over many years. Uniquely amongst UK retailers, Next spotted that managing their capital was almost as important as managing their business.
Having created a retail format that delivered high cash returns on investment (new stores tended to pay back all of their costs to open within a couple of years), and built a Directory that generated trading profits, plus big interest receipts on customer account balances, Next had options that others did not. Quite simply, Next had an embarrassment of riches; the business could not realistically absorb all of the cash flow that it was generating.
Wolfson and Keens realised that if the surplus cash flows were used to buy back shares and cancel them, next year the earnings per share would be the product of a (hopefully) higher amount of profit, divided by a smaller number of shares. If the share price broadly followed the earnings per share over time, then buying back stock could lead to faster earnings growth and faster share price growth.
The plan worked. Step back to the start of the century and Next had 374m shares in issue, a stock price that averaged 612p and that year declared earnings per share of 38p. Today, the shares are over £70, the company declared earnings of 420p and there are only 155m shares left in issue.
Along the way, the plan evolved; if the share price got too high, in terms of the PE ratio, then buy-backs would not enhance earnings enough to justify the expense, so Next started to follow a pick-n’mix strategy, buying back when the price was low, paying special dividends when it was too high.
Recently, special dividends have been the norm, if that isn't a contradiction in terms. On Next's current view of the year ahead, buy-backs do not make sense unless the share price dips back toward £68.
There has been an unusual outcome with Next; if the price is high, the yield goes up, if special dividends are paid. A lower price leads to buy-backs, which hopefully lead in time to a higher share price, but the yield on the stock drops in the short term, because the special dividends dry up.
Either route can deliver value to shareholders. What matters is that the profitability of Next remains robust enough to maintain the excess cash generation to make the capital management strategies possible in the first place.
Here, we believe there is no sign of any cause for concern; Next has traded well through an exceptionally challenging few years. With the Directory driving around half of Next brand operating profits, Next is unusually exposed to e-commerce. The overseas Directory business is expanding strongly and whilst it too is experiencing some of the cost issues that have dogged Asos, it remains a high returning, 18% operating margin operation that has gone from minimal sales to an expected £200m+ th