KMK21 Apr 2017 15:44
Risk assessment
Of course there are risks involved, the most obvious of which is that Kromek is at an early stage of its commercial development, and there is absolutely no guarantee that revenues will grow as analysts predict. Indeed, as the raft of contract wins highlight, awards can be lumpy by their nature and, as a consequence, hard to forecast. Any contract loss would have a far higher greater financial impact, too. Moreover, even if future orders do ramp up, as analysts predict, the company still has to increase production substantially to fulfil them, so there is execution risk.
The business also has to invest heavily in product development and this isn't cheap; research and development spend (R&D) was £1.7m in the latest half year, albeit a R&D tax credit of £900,000 for the previous financial year helped offset this cash burden. There is also the cost of protecting its 265 patents, although given the high barriers to entry into this market, and the company's leading edge technology, I don't see competitive pressures or patent challenges as an issue. In fact, gross margins look sustainable given there are only four recognised producers of CZT globally. As analysts at Equity Development rightly point out, two of them - Siemens and General Electric - are not really independent, so may refrain from supplying CZT to medical imaging rivals Toshiba and Philips.
It's worth considering, too, that leading edge technology isn't always adopted by customers as quickly as the bullish management of companies predict, albeit in this case I feel the board's confidence is well placed.
I rate the Aim-traded shares a strong buy.