KMK19 Jun 2017 12:51
From ST at the IC.
"Funded for explosive growth
Another good example is Sedgefield-based Kromek (KMK:31.5p), a radiation detection technology company focused on the medical, security and nuclear markets.
I had been patiently monitoring the company for some time, noting a raft of contract wins, but what prompted me to recommend buying the Aim-traded shares at 25p in late February was news of an oversubscribed placing and open offer which raised £20m ('Follow the smart money', 27 Feb 2017). It was an unusual fundraise as Kromek didn't need the money, but tapped shareholders to strengthen its position when negotiating contracts with government bodies and original equipment manufacturers (OEM) customers who had concerns about the company's financial strength and ability to supply significant quantities of its core cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) technologies.
It's a hot area to be operating in given the geopolitical backdrop and heightened risk of terrorism. In fact, Kromek revealed this week that its next generation standalone radiation detector was deployed by the European Commission Counter Terrorism Unit during the NATO Security Summit and the visit to Brussels last month of US President, Donald Trump. It's a strong stamp of approval for the company's technology and can only be supportive of Kromek's revenues ramping up sharply as more potential customers sign on the dotted line.
Bearing this in mind, although analysts Hannah Crowe and Paul Hill at research firm Equity Development predict Kromek can lift revenues by more than a third to £12.5m in the financial year to end April 2018, prompting a move into cash profitability, only £2.24m of this sum is dependent on new shipments. That's because £7.2m of the £12.5m revenue forecast is backed fully by a flow-through of the order book, and a further £3m is supported by repeat or expected orders. It wouldn't take many new contracts to accelerate the move into profitability.
Reassuringly, while I was on annual leave, Kromek announced in a pre-close trading update that "products continue to gain traction in all our business segments from the increasing adoption of CZT-based technology and other products. The company expects to continue to win new customers and, together with the momentum of contract wins, it expects a step change in revenue growth in the new financial calendar year." Equity Development's forecasts look on the money to me.
In the circumstances, it's hardly surprising that Kromek's share price subsequently hit my 34p target price. That was the cue for some profit taking, but after consolidating gains the share price looks well placed once again to achieve that discounted cash-flow-based target price. Rated on 1.8 times book value of £44m, and with pro-forma net cash of £22m equating to 8.5p a share, I would run profits ahead of next month's results."