Member Info for Mumbles2021

Nice analyisi, but what is known is that the 11 million drilling program and the Dy/Tb recovery plants (expected to be between 30 and 50 million USD. Lets say 40 million. So an approximate 50 million, based on you calculated 243 million, adding 50 million on brings it to 293 million. Which would suggest 17% going back to Ozango…. Or in the region of 60%,

Hogsnipe, i think some readers are from a different age...... for enlightenment "Reasons to be cheerful (part 3)", was a single released by Ian Drury and the Blockheads in 1979..... which is scarily 47 years ago....https://youtu.be/CIMNXogXnvE?si=93fzx4f8v-S6gjot

Good morning Hogsnipe, i did a lot of work into the October/Nover SP action and wrote a paper on it, you may find it interesting. Part of my The brown paper thoughts, you can, and any one else can find it here https://www.thebrownpaper.net/blog/qkekxls7aed426lqc6jw2pms6itwsw

SP, You are saying it is the opinion of AI as though it is the definitive answer. AI is a tool, that is effective, more importantly as reliable as the person using it. Many states in the US use limited. But it is most likely to be Delaware…..

Advised that it is simple shareholding agreeemt amendment . And should only take a few weeks. Bir historically we have had delays so wouldn't hang my hat on it...

TBOW is was a statement from the Chairman

Referring to statements made regarding reason for Change. The statement is close to libelous, or at least extremely in informed,. I refer to a comment i have just made to another group.

That was not at all the reason, their are more than just Pensana shareholder consideration in play, not least of which is the Angolan national interests via the FSDEA and also potential fiscal advantages in an alternate structure, not to mention access to EU critical mineral incentives that Brexit managed to screw up. My point is that it is far more complex and that jumping to this conclusion without knowing all the facts is not helpful. This question was explicitly asked. PA categorically denied it.

TBOW in answer to your question....... No.... I strongly suggest if you are really concerned. You attend and get the notes in context.

Unless of course you were there?

But i was.

Why will they avoid an investment in Coola. Sable is the holding company in which the Angolan entities are held. Both Coola and Ozango are held in the Sable structure

The meeting is still happenning, i plus a few quite a few others are attending. It isnt being framed as an EGM as no voting is taking place. however a corporate presentation will be given

There is frustration following yesterday’s announcement. The structure has changed several times over the past year and many shareholders — myself included — feel they are being treated like mushrooms, kept in the dark and fed occasional updates.

However it is worth comparing the current position with where the project stood about a year ago.

At that time the AFC-led structure implied that the Longonjo project held by Ozango Limited was valued at about $250 million. Under that proposal Pensana Plc would likely have seen its ownership fall to just over 50%, and there was a $107 million equity buy-back obligation required later to restore ownership to roughly 70%.

That meant dilution combined with a $107 million repayment obligation on the project.

The current structure is different.

There is $40 million already invested by Fundo Soberano de Angola and a proposed $165 million investment from Cascade Natural Resources. In addition there is $160 million of senior debt from Absa Group, supported by a guarantee from the Export-Import Bank of the United States.

This provides about $365 million of total funding capacity against Phase 1 capex of about $217 million.

The project itself has also changed. The Dy/Tb recovery circuit could add about $500 million of additional NPV, exploration suggests the resource could expand toward about one billion tonnes, and construction has started.

Commodity prices have also moved materially. Prices for Neodymium Praseodymium Oxide are now roughly double the levels seen when the earlier structure was being discussed, even inside China, and material landing in the US is closer to three times those earlier levels. Saying the market has strengthened since then would be something of an understatement.

On a like-for-like basis the implied value of Longonjo today is approaching $600 million, compared with about $250 million under the AFC proposal.

Communication may have been limited, but over the same period the economic position of the project has not simply improved — it has been transformed.

Novice…. All of the above :-)

Stock genius, the plant has been designed for modularisation, except for the ball mill, heavy lift requirement is limited, as most modules are being moved by road, or container, lifting requirements shouldn't exceed 30 Mts (if not less), only limited if extended reach is required, I'm sure if they planned it right, extended reach isnt. also we don't know what piles are required, We do know that the soil their is based on igneous rock and it looks like rafts are being used for bases, rather than major piling. we don't know what size the piles are. are 300 mm by 10 metres ore 900 mm by 30 metres, the geology suggested closer to the former than than the latter, but their is no data other than that. the RNS did state that the finding on soil surveys for the TSF were conducive to successful and timel y completion of the TSF "Material excavated from the box cut has undergone compaction testing by SRK and has been confirmed as suitable for construction of the 14-hectare TSF starter wall, supporting both the first and second TSF compartments. This outcome provides a positive cost and schedule advantage through the utilisation of on-site materials."

MKA / RBW trade on SETqx platform, which is very LSE centric. PRE trades on the main exchange and is traded on the SET platform, this mean it is susceptible to micro trades, run on global platforms. I'm suspecting that the thin liquidity can amplify price movements. As Novice157 has said, if Monday doesnt result in money in the bank immediately then there will be a whole new set of issues to contend with. But as the agreement was signed off in cape town and Monday is a ratification,to crystalise the equity injection and is required by pre-emption right, the money would be in the bank now

Novice, believe it or not, i agree with you

@Kutzz if the kit can be sent by containerised modules then cape town to Lobito may be the way to go. but depending where it is being fabricated, it has to be trucked to Cape Town or Durban, wait for the specific liner route vessel to arrive, load it on, get it off, after stopping at Namibia on the way discharge at Lobito, get it on a train (0r a truck) to Longonjo/Huambo. take it off the train (or truck) in to the marshalling yard (if they organise it right they ay move from train direct to truck), then truck from the rail siding to Longonjo site, then off load it. so you have 5 transfers, but if they load it onto a truck at the fabricators, truck it ito Angoal then straight from the truck to the base. this is reduce to two. transhipments all cost. Truck from Joburg direct to site, is far simpler if the road route is straight forward. after a chat with William Izod, when they were moving the construction camp in, some came by container and train, and some came direct by road from SA. im sure this gave then some idea of the most effiecnt route

Why does it confirm that FSDEA and Cascade are connected other than both being equity holders in Pensana. FSDEA were ntrumental in the 2023 revised fincial strategy by providing 15 million in bridging finance and 25 million in funding at Ozango level, but it doesn’t in any way suggest there is any other connection.

Another scenario, Shengue bought Peak resources for approximately 175 million AUD. the Nguella reserve has a bigger reserve and was potentially the only other hard rock Rare Earth resource that was bigger or better than Longonjo. Shenge argument was that the price offered was a significanlty higher premium than the share price when trading ceased because Peak could no longer keep the lights on. Do you still contend that the MCAP is the correct process for price discovery. or that Potential investors have to keep track of a moving target. That doesn't happen in the real world..... Actually it doesn't happen in any world.

In march last year the share price was 15 p and the MCAP was $50 million. do you think that was the right price then. the deal that was done at OPCO lovel raised 107 million USD in equity, if it hadnt been done at OPCO level with a 250 million valuation, and with a 107 million equity buy back option it wouldnt have been done at all. owner ship would have exceeded 0ver 30% and full blown takeover would have taken place. personally i think the EXCO have done a cracking job and the valuation is entirely appropriate..... your insistence on pressing an obviously misinformed principle, isn't helping you nor any one else.

Please TBOW sell everything now