Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Valuation, how do you work that out whether its you or a strategic partner, somebody is still going to have to shell out another $275 million USD. the last AGM authorised the issuing of 165 million shares on a public offering on a prorate basis on the number of shares. the 165 million being adjusted by any shares already taken up. ie now there are 135 million available. so if you want an offering, you would be offered 1 share for every 2 shares you hold, and would have to pay £2 for each share you exercised your right to. The number of shares in circulation would increase from 285 million to 420 million. how is that no dilution.
Astro, you end up with 50% of a 1 billion market cap company, instead of 100% 0f a 100 million cap company, how is that losing money (and Smart Punter, i know it is currently 75 million)
Valuation, the price they paid when first jumping on board reflected the potential risk and also does now, and that's why i said they would have to price at a company valuation of $600 million or equivalent of $1 a share with double the shares in issue as there at the moment.
In respect of Longonjo. the interests according to the 2022 annual report is actually 14% angolan government and 86% Pensana. there are no other shareholders presently.
Angolan government own 15% not 19%
Responding to Tony below. absolutely agree, my own decisions have been based on considerable dilution. Assuming that both the finance packages worth $225 million are landed, then a further $225 million is required for a total capex of $550 million. whether this is by a strategic investor taking direct equity in the opcos, or private or public placement, 50% dilution is definitely likely. why would any one put up 50% of the required funding without expecting at least 50% or more of the proceeds from a project. at the moment 34% of Longonjo and 49% of Saltend are potentially up for grabs without Pensana losing their controlling interest in either project. overall that 38% of the economic interest directly plus whatever the stake held in Pensana. if the same entities invest directly in the OPCO as have in the holding company, then their economic benefit would potentially in the ASWF an d M&G be almost 62% of the net income. but to do that, they would need to value the company at almost $600 million before construction and without any consideration of what's in the ground. which is a hell of an improvement from where we are now.
DP/SP, dont get me wrong, its a decent capital raise and this is no criticism of RBW. But it was by the directors and a single shareholder agreed at an artificial price. Whichever way you look at it, there are 20% more shares in circulation, than there were yesterday. Basically the directors have bought a large stake when the SP is at an extraordinary LOW, great move for them. Be intresting at how the subsequent SP improved the overall value position of their existing stock holding. Personally i think it was probably a good move. But definitely not altruistic or described as least dilutive. The investment means that the directors and shareholder have acquired a further 16.66% of the company at a company valuation of £45 million pounds. It is a vote of confidence in their own company, but definitely well timed and opportunistic.
Eloro, my face is well straightened thank you. May be i should have spelled it out more clearly. currently Lynas and MP are already there. Compared to the others Mkango, Peak, Rainbow, and the Australians. Pensana have all permitting, processes etc etc ready to go. Consequently they are well ahead of the pack. regarding the usual comments regarding no demand outside of China. if Adamas latest forecasts are to be believed, and it was only published last month. in 10 years time, not only will the world will need to have doubled its NdPr production, but in 2033 will also need to be adding PRE/Lynas/MP production sized facilities at the rate of 3 every year. Even if the west (or even the west and China) are able to that, the question of feedstock will also need to be addressed. Im not just confident that Pensana is going to happen in the format envisaged (Longonjo/Saltend), it has to.
Hi AS, Lewis is fortunate in that he benefits fro 20/20 hindsight. Fully agree that something doesn't seem right, but definitely a hold. Canute couldn't hold back the tide, at the end of the day the west needs more projects like PRE and Pensana is well ahead of the pack
DP, i have to admit i do block you, but i keep having to come back as i miss the entertainment value.
China, that i agree with. For now, those shares will not be part of the free float. Which will remain the same.
SP/DP 11.7% actually. You seem to have graduated onto percentages. But your point is?….. couple of weeks you had PRE going into administration on the Wednesday rolling the quarterly report.
DP if you really think there is a case to answer make a complaint to the FCA.
Naivety possibly.
Theo, it is entirely possible that the 200K was a snapshot figure, in fact more than likely was. and that some substantial receivables were due in, as per there normal course of business. i dont know? maybe VAT refunds or such like?. Then again, i guess you could be right.
Do agree with you somewhat on this one, the only way marine transportation will be able to on the same scale as now and have a zero carbon footprint is by using Hydrogen. But not entirely convinced about road transportation. But at the end of the day whether it is blue or green hydrogen, still going to needs lots of electricity to extract from either water or natural gas.
Big mistake, back up again now
hogsnipe, probably because the sellers are price takers not price makers. The buyers wil take all they can but only at the price they want. Sellers are willing to give them it at the moment.
Theo, if it doesnt, then the Yorkshire energy park is already a dud. I’ll have to look to if there is a forum on LSE. Intresting to see the comments on there as well.
Smartpunter, This is your usual tactic, . The capex has been adjusted from the last numbers from 495 million to 502 million. I have no reason not to believe the numbers that are published. Not to accept that inflation is real concern at the Moment. I know It suits your narrative to strongly infer that the management are not only inept but also dishonest. My own interactions with them do not support this. If i had the slightest hint, i would have run along time ago.