Member Info for mulledwine

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/researchreports/MDMOutlook140912.pdf

Ahead of Imperial Toabcco's pre-close trading update next Friday, Panmure Gordon has reiterated its 'buy' recommendation and 2,900p target price for the cigarette and tobacco giant. The broker says that the current 20% discount to the peer group (price-to-earnings ratio basis) is too great: "We continue to regard this discount as too large given its attractive cash generation (free cash flow yield is 8% in FY 2012E) and believe the discount should narrow on evidence that Imperial’s organic growth strategy is delivering results."

The statutory accounts for GLIF are distorted by marking to market accounting. On the asset side, GLIFs objective is to identify assets where the market price is wrong and often holds them to maturity. As a going concern it will repay its debts in full, so that market price is also meaningless. We believe investors should look through the consolidated (capital and income) EPS loss in H112 of 11p to the business messages. Revenue exceeded administration and finance costs, with c two thirds of this surplus distributed to shareholders. The current annualised yield is c 9.6% and is more than covered by this measure. We expect the group to be active in acquisitions following the value-accretion from the AMIC deal. In this statement, we believe it has flagged that that it is close to doing a deal. While negotiations may falter, we believe the reiteration of intent is clear. While the MTM of assets fell 6%, the credit quality improved, with only 1% (down from 2%) of the portfolio expected to show any loss of principal. The already-announced accounting NAV at end-June was 47.9p. We prefer our franchise valuation approach, which is 52.9p

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/researchreports/GLIF140912Flash.pdf

Valuation: Dividends confirm cash flow undervalued We compare Brightside with a range of businesses that incorporate similar elements. None is a perfect comparator, but each gives some insight into an appropriate level of valuation for Brightside. In our view, a P/E of c 13x 2012 would be fair, to which we apply a 20% liquidity discount for an effective multiple of 10.4x, giving a fair value of c 33.7p.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/researchreports/brightsideupdate140912.pdf

Valuation We continue to believe a core valuation of 3x Enterprise Value/EBITDA - 207p per share on our 2013E numbers - remains more than sufficiently conservative, and note this is before taking any account of Avesco’s interest in an on-going US litigation case in which a unanimous verdict in July 2010 put the company in line for a net approximate $60 million (c. £37.5 million) payout. This has been appealed, with it announced last month that an oral hearing of the appeal has been scheduled for 10th October and Avesco believing “that a decision is likely to follow within 12 months of this date”. There is the potential for further legal ruminations after this, but Avesco has previously emphasised that it is “comfortable that the legal argument on which this case will be determined remains favourable” to it and even discounting the potential payout for 2 years and using what seems a highly conservative 30% probability of success suggests another 33p per share. The valuation is also supported by 151p per share (£38.47 million) of net tangible assets and a likely 4p per share total dividend for this year (with a 1p per share interim dividend to be paid on 1st October and the shares to be quoted ‘ex-dividend’ from 12th September). However, a 2013 basis and $:£ exchange rate movement mean our near-term target price is reduced to 240p from 260p – though despite the shares also having risen (from 149p at the time of our previous, June, update to a current 162p), there remains significant upside to our revised price target.

Forecasts We retain our full-year forecasts, though move our year-end net debt figure up from £24 million to £27 million as a result of some accelerated capital spending. We also introduce forecasts for next year – these anticipating underlying growth and some major events mitigating significantly, but not wholly, the ‘big ticket’ event benefits of this year. Valuation We continue to believe a core valuation of 3x Enterprise Value/EBITDA - 207p per share on our 2013E numbers - remains more than sufficiently conservative. This is before taking any account of Avesco’s interest in an on-going US litigation case - for which we attribute a further 33p per share.

Avesco Group Update from GECR 11th September 2012 Strong results for the three and nine months ended 30th June 2012 Avesco Group, the provider of services to the international corporate presentation, entertainment and broadcast markets, has announced results for the three and nine months ended 30th June 2012 which continue to bear out its start of the year confidence that 2012 could be one of the biggest and most rewarding in the company’s history. With the company believing its outlook “has never been better”, the rating being attributed by the stock market continues to look materially too low. Financials Avesco has announced an underlying pre-tax profit of £1.56 million for its third quarter, taking the nine month figure to £2.95 million and basic earnings per share for the nine months to 11.0p – this up from 7.9p for the comparative prior year period. Trading Avesco noted that it has been “extremely busy”, with its work in connection with the Paralympic Games in London and the 2012 Olympics in July and August particularly “substantial”. Looking further ahead, the company notes “while 2012/13 as an „odd year‟ will not have stand-out events as big for us as those in and around London in 2012, we do expect to benefit substantially from a number of other major events”.

Valuation: Modest discount persists Omnicom has been the best performing of the majors over the last six months, while Dentsu has lagged the most. WPP’s share price performance has been somewhat better over the last quarter such that it, Omnicom and Publicis are standing broadly at similar levels for current year on an EV/EBITDA basis. On a P/E basis, WPP is on a 13% discount to the larger sector peers closing slightly to 11% for FY13, but still giving scope for upside

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/researchreports/WPPQV140912.pdf

14 September 2012 As part of the dual listed company structure, Mondi Limited and Mondi plc (together "Mondi Group") notify both the JSE Limited ("JSE") and the London Stock Exchange of matters required to be disclosed under the JSE Listings Requirements and/or the Disclosure Rules and Transparency Rules and/or the Listing Rules of the United Kingdom Listing Authority. Mondi Group to acquire Duropack's operations in Germany and the Czech Republic Mondi Group has signed an agreement with Duropack GmbH ("Duropack"), for the acquisition of Duropack's operations (the "Operations") in Germany and the Czech Republic (the "Acquisition"), which consist of 2 corrugated box plants and one recycled containerboard mill. The two corrugated box plants consume approximately 130 thousand tonnes of containerboard per annum while the recycled containerboard mill is capable of producing 105 thousand tonnes per annum. The consideration to be paid for 100% of the Operations amounts to EUR125m and will be paid in cash at completion. Mondi Group will assume approximately EUR5m net cash as of the same date, implying an enterprise value of EUR120m. For the year ended 31 December 2011, the Operations generated unaudited pro forma consolidated revenues of EUR160m and unaudited pro forma consolidated adjusted EBITDA of EUR23m. The consideration payable for the Acquisition will be funded from existing resources available to Mondi Group. The Acquisition is in line with Mondi Group's strategy to strengthen its leading market position in corrugated packaging in central and eastern Europe. The completion of the deal is conditional on the approval by the relevant competition authorities and other customary closing conditions.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20120914083000PFBB4

Current trading and outlook The biggest danger to the pub industry, as indicated above, is the VAT disparity between supermarkets and pubs, combined with the continuing imposition of stealth taxes, such as the late-night levy and the increase in fruit/slot machine taxes. In the six weeks to 9 September 2012, like-for-like sales increased by 8.4%, with total sales increasing by 12.8%, helped by a strong performance during the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Sales this summer have been enhanced by a number of one-off events and we do not expect to sustain this level of growth. As previously indicated, it is anticipated that taxation and input costs will continue to rise. Overall therefore, the company is aiming for a reasonable outcome, in the current financial year.

Like-for-like sales in the year under review increased by 3.2%, with total sales, including week 53 and new pubs, increasing by £125.1 million to £1,197.1 million, a rise of 11.7% (2011: 7.6%). Like-for-like bar sales increased by 2.8% (2011: increased by 1.7%), like-for-like food sales increased by 4.8% (2011: increased by 4.2%) and machine sales decreased by 2.8% (2011: decreased by 3.9%). Operating profit before exceptional items increased by 4.9% to £107.3 million (2011: £102.3 million) and, after exceptional items, decreased by 3.2% to £93.8 million (2011: £96.9 million). The operating margin, before exceptional items, decreased to 9.0% (2011: 9.5%), mainly as a result of increases in taxation, utilities and bar and food costs. The operating margin after exceptional items was 7.8% (2011: 9.0%). Profit before tax and exceptional items increased by 8.4% to £72.4 million (2011: £66.8 million) and, after exceptional items, decreased by 4.1% to £58.9 million (2011: £61.4 million). Earnings per share before exceptional items increased by 17.0% to 41.3p (2011: 35.3p), while basic earnings after exceptional items increased by 0.6% to 35.6p (2011: 35.4p). Net interest was covered 3.1 times by operating profit before exceptional items (2011: 2.9 times) and 2.7 times by operating profit after exceptional items (2011: 2.7 times). Total capital investment was £120.6 million in the period (2011: £126.0 million), with £75.4 million on new pub openings (2011: £87.6 million) and £45.2 million on existing pubs (2011: £38.4 million). Exceptional items before tax totalled £13.5 million (2011: £5.4 million) of which £0.6 million resulted in a cash charge. The exceptional items relate to the impairment of trading pub assets of £7.8 million (2011: £4.4 million), a provision for onerous leases of £2.2 million, an IT-related asset write-off of £1.7 million, a loss on the disposal of property, plant and equipment of £1.1 million and restructuring costs of £0.6 million. The total impairment provision is now £30.1 million, compared with the original cost of our assets of £1.5 billion. Free cash flow, after capital investment of £45.2 million on existing pubs (2011: £38.4 million), £5.8 million in respect of share purchases for employees under the company's share-based payment schemes (2011: £5.8 million) and payments of tax and interest, increased by £12.7 million to £91.5 million (2011: £78.8 million). Free cash flow per share was 73.2p (2011: 59.7p).

Commenting on the results, Tim Martin, the chairman of J D Wetherspoon plc, said: "I am pleased to report a year of further progress for the company, with record sales, profit and earnings per share before exceptional items. As previously indicated, the biggest dangers to the pub industry, are the VAT disparity between supermarkets and pubs, combined with the continuing imposition of stealth taxes, such as the late-night levy and the increase in fruit/slot machine taxes. In the six weeks to 9 September 2012, like-for-like sales increased by 8.4%, with total sales increasing by 12.8%, helped by a strong performance during the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Sales this summer have been enhanced by a number of one-off events and we do not expect to sustain this level of growth. As previously indicated, it is anticipated that taxation and input costs will continue to rise. Overall therefore, the company is aiming for a reasonable outcome, in the current financial year."

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201209140700022535M

Share Consolidation It is proposed that the payment of the Special Dividend be accompanied by a consolidation of the Company's ordinary share capital. The Share Consolidation will replace every 15 Existing Ordinary Shares with 14 New Ordinary Shares. Upon the Share Consolidation becoming effective, the nominal value of the Ordinary Shares will change from 13 29/47 pence per Ordinary Share to 14 194/329 pence per Ordinary Share. Fractional entitlements arising from the Share Consolidation will be aggregated and sold in the market for the best price reasonably obtainable on behalf of the relevant Shareholders. The net proceeds of the sale, after the deduction of the expenses of the sale, are expected to be paid in due proportion to the relevant Shareholders on Wednesday, 17 October 2012. The value of any Shareholder's fractional entitlement will not exceed the value of one New Ordinary Share. As at the close of business on Tuesday, 11 September 2012 (being the last practicable date prior to the posting of the Circular) when the closing mid-market price per Existing Ordinary Share was 1,619 pence and there were 291,613,946 Existing Ordinary Shares in issue, the total amount of the Special Dividend was equivalent to 6.70 per cent. of the market capitalisation of the Company. The effect of the Share Consolidation will be to reduce the number of Ordinary Shares in issue by approximately the same percentage. As all ordinary shares in the Company will be consolidated, each Shareholders' percentage holdings in the total issued share capital of the Company immediately before and after the implementation of the Share Consolidation will (save in respect of fractional entitlements) remain unchanged.

14 September 2012 InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ("IHG" or the "Company") Special Dividend and Share Consolidation: Publication of Circular On Tuesday, 7 August 2012, the Board of IHG announced its intention to return US$1 billion of funds to Shareholders via a Special Dividend with a Share Consolidation of US$500 million and a Share Buyback Programme of US$500 million. The Board of IHG today announces it is publishing a circular (the "Circular") setting out full details of the proposed Special Dividend and associated Share Consolidation and convening a General Meeting to be held at 10.00am on Monday, 8 October 2012 at the Holiday Inn London Bloomsbury, Coram Street, London WC1N 1HT. Special Dividend It is proposed that the amount of the Special Dividend is US$1.72 (108.4 pence) per Existing Ordinary Share. The Board is proposing to pay the Special Dividend to Shareholders on the Register as at 6.00pm on Monday, 8 October 2012 in sterling and to ADR holders on the ADR register as at 4.00pm (New York time) on Monday, 8 October 2012 (being the close of business on the day before the ADR effective date) in US dollars, in each case as an interim dividend in respect of the financial year ending 31 December 2012. The Special Dividend is expected to be paid to Shareholders and holders of ADRs on Monday, 22 October 2012.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201209140700102527M